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  • European equities open higher to start the day
    by Justin Low on May 25, 2022 at 7:02 am

    Eurostoxx +0.8%Germany DAX +0.8%UK FTSE +0.5%France CAC 40 +0.6%Spain IBEX +0.9%This mirrors the more optimistic mood in US futures, as risk sentiment is tilted slightly more positive on the day. S&P 500 futures are up 0.6%, Nasdaq futures up 0.8%, and Dow futures up 0.3% currently.

  • Euro gains stall, dollar steady to start the session
    by Justin Low on May 25, 2022 at 6:49 am

    It's a bit of an assuming start to European morning trade for major currencies, despite the slightly more positive risk mood. The euro is down slightly just back under 1.0700, seeing its gains over the past two days stall for a bit. I outlined some thoughts about the single currency yesterday here and why any extended bounce may not hold given the market outlook. One of the more intriguing dollar pairs now in my view is USD/JPY after the drop below 127.00 yesterday to its lowest since 18 April: The pair is seeing a light bounce back near the figure level but from a technical perspective, sellers are certainly looking poised to try and push the agenda. If they can hold a firm break below 127.00, the 125.00 level is the next key target. The fact that Treasury yields are also tailing off from its recent highs is also helping to keep the downside momentum for now. 10-year yields are down to near 2.75% now from a high of 3.20% just two weeks ago. Looking elsewhere today, the kiwi is the lead gainer after the RBNZ hiked rates by 50 bps as expected. But the central bank outlined a more hawkish rate projection, underlining its conviction to hike rates beyond neutral in order to rein in inflation. That has taken NZD/USD to test 0.6500 on the day: The 38.2 retracement level @ 0.6529 and the 4 to 5 May highs around 0.6550-68 will be key resistance points to watch next.Besides that, the dollar is keeping rather steady overall with little change observed among other major currencies.

  • China Australia Thaw, Gold Stocks Go in Opposite Directions
    by ForexLive on May 24, 2022 at 6:54 am

    Australian markets, equities and currency did attempt to lift yesterday. Largely on a 'buy the fact' trader basis, but there was also a bounce in markets generally.   Also that all important hope for an end to the previous red-neck foreign policy toward China. That does not mean important geo-security issues can be ignored. Simply that there is a more mature and reasoned way of communicating unsettlement and disagreement, than grand standing at the UN Prime Ministers address as occurred previously.   Even President Biden is today talking of reconsidering the Trump era sanctions against China. It makes no sense at all for Australia, with China as our major trading partner, to continue to be unduly aggressive.   Things will not change overnight. There has been significant damage in relations in both directions, but today’s news of the first Ministerial communication from China to congratulate Anthony Albanese and to suggest an open door to discussions again is significant. This is a seismic shift and the Albanese government should take care to make the most of this window opening.   We can make our arguments on all issues with China in a way that gets a good hearing and is well received.   Markets   As suspected yesterday, the immediate Australian bounce for currency and stocks looks to be tiring a little. Albeit after some further initial strength in overseas markets. The strongest looking major market at the moment looks to be Gold. Making steady gains indeed over the past week.   While the more vulnerable of the major global markets, remains the US stock market. The SP500 index was already rolling over again at the New York close.   This appears to be a general global market shift of pulling back from recent risk-off behaviour, but now again beginning to fall back into that bearish equity markets dominance overall. Clifford Bennett   ACY Securities Chief Economist. The view expressed within this document are solely that of Clifford Bennett’s and do not represent the views of ACY Securities. All commentary is on the record and may be quoted without further permission required from ACY Securities or Clifford Bennett.   This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.

  • AUD Steadies After Left-Leaning Govt Elected; DXY Gains
    by ForexLive on May 23, 2022 at 9:43 am

    Over the weekend Australians voted in a Labour government after almost a decade of Conservative rule. The election result saw a shift in the country on the pivotal role of climate change. Incoming Prime Minister-elect Anthony Albanese told Australians in his victory speech that “together we can end climate wars.” In early Asian trade this morning, the Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) steadied to 0.7050, little-changed from Friday’s opening (0.7045).   Overnight, the Aussie Battler slid to a low at 0.7002 before rallying. The Dollar Index (USD/DXY), a popular measure of the US currency’s value against a basket of 6 major rivals, gained 0.29% to 103.02 following its slide to 102.77. The Euro (EUR/USD) faltered, settling at 1.0565 at the New York close after attempting to break above the 1.0600 level. Sterling (GBP/USD) edged modestly higher to 1.2480 (1.2460 Friday), after failing to clear the 1.2500 resistance level.   Against the Japanese Yen, the Greenback was little changed at 127.85 from 127.80. Overnight, the USD/JPY pair traded to a high at 128.30. The Dollar was mostly lower against the Asian and Emerging Market currencies. USD/SGD (US Dollar-Singapore Dollar) dipped to 1.3800 from 1.3815 while the USD/CNH pair (US Dollar-Offshore Chinese Yuan) slumped to 6.6900 from 6.7200 on Friday. The US 10-year Treasury Bond Yield fell 6 basis points to 2.78%, leading other global rates lower. Germany’s 10-year Bund was unchanged, closing with a yield at 0.94%. Japan’s 10-year JGB note was flat at 0.23%. Most global stocks finished with moderate gains. The DOW edged up to 31,295 from 31,245 while the S&P 500 finished at 3,907 (3.901 Friday).   Data released on Friday saw UK GFK Consumer Confidence dip to -40 from a previous -38, lower than estimates at -39. New Zealand’s Trade Surplus climbed to +NZD 584 million, beating expectation of -NZD 352 million. Japan’s National Core CPI rose to 2.1% from a previous 0.8%, and higher than estimates at 2.0%. Germany’s April PPI was up to 2.8% against expectations of 1.4% but lower than the previous 4.9%. UK April Retail Sales jumped to 1.4% from a previous -1.4%, and higher than estimates at -0.2%. Eurozone Consumer Confidence saw a -21.0 read from a previous -22 and median estimates at -21.5.   ·      EUR/USD – The shared currency retreated in early trade Friday hitting 1.0533 overnight lows from its opening at 1.0580. In late New York, the Euro rebounded to 1.0599 overnight highs before easing to settle at 1.0565 at the close. Net speculative Euro shorts were on the bid paring their positions. ·      AUD/USD – The Australian Dollar rebounded off its overnight low at 0.7002 after opening at 0.7050 on Friday. The election result had little effect on the Australian Dollar which held its gains versus the overall weaker Greenback. The newly elected Labour government is not expected to change the stance of the RBA. ·      USD/JPY – Against the Yen, the Greenback finished at 127.85, little changed from Friday’s open at 127.80. Overnight high traded was at 128.30. A paring of speculative long Dollar bets weighed on this currency pair. Overnight low recorded was at 127.53. ·      GBP/USD – Sterling saw a modest bounce to 1.2480 at the New York close from Friday’s open at 1.2460. The GBP/USD pair initially traded to an overnight high at 1.2500. Overnight low traded was at 1.2430. In early Asian trade, the British currency rallied to high of 1.2511 before settling back to 1.2500. On the Lookout: This week starts off with a light economic calendar today amidst a Canadian holiday. There are no major Australian and Asian data releases. The World Economic Forum holds its meeting today in Davos, Switzerland.   This meeting usually attracts media scrutiny because world authorities exchange opinions on a variety of major topics. Climate change, economic instability and growth are among the major topics discussed. Germany releases is May IFO Business Climate (f/c 91.4 from 91.8 – ACY Finlogix). Germany’s Bundesbank follows with its Monthly Report.   The US round up a quiet calendar with its Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April (no f/c, previous was 0.44). The calendar picks up during the week with the release of Global Manufacturing PMIs which are released tomorrow. The US also releases its April New Home Sales data.   Wednesday sees US Headline and Core Durable Goods Orders for April and the release of the FOMC Minutes (early Thursday, Sydney time). The US reports its Preliminary Estimate of Q2 GDP Growth Rate on Thursday. Friday sees the release of Australian April Retail Sales and US April Personal Spending and Personal Income.   Trading Perspective: Support for the US Dollar emerged following a bout of profit-taking and position adjustments on Friday. The Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded off its overnight lows at 102.77 to 103.02 at the close. Last week the DXY hit a high at 104.45. Global treasury yields were lower led by a slide in the benchmark US 10-year rate which settled at 2.78% (2.84% Friday). This should keep the Dollar’s topside limited. At the close of trade on Friday, speculative market positioning remained long of the Greenback.  Ahead of key economic data releases this week, expect consolidation today in FX.   ·      EUR/USD – After holding various attempts to break lower, the shared currency saw speculative shorts chase offers pushing it to a high at 1.0599. The Euro dipped to finish at 1.0565 in New York. Overnight low traded was at 1.0533. For today, immediate resistance lies at 1.0600 followed by 1.0630 and 1.0660. A break above 1.0600 could see 1.0650 and 1.0700. On the downside support lies at 1.0530 followed by 1.0500 and 1.0470. Expect consolidation today in a likely range of 1.0520-1.0620. Preference -trade the range today. ·      AUD/USD – The Aussie Dollar has come back bid despite a change in government where the leftist leaning Labour Party took power. In early Asian trade, RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent told a conference in Sydney today that current policy was quite stimulatory. The AUD/USD pair rallied to 0.7070 from 0.7050, before settling at 0.7062. Immediate resistance lies at 0.7100 and 0.7130. Immediate support can be found at 0.7030, 0.7000 and 0.6970. Look for consolidation, with a likely grind higher for the AUD/USD between 0.7030-0.7130. Trade the range today, there’s more volatility to come.     (Source: ·      GBP/USD – The British Pound lifted against the broadly based weaker Greenback past the 1.2500 resistance barrier in early Asia to a high at 1.2512. Currently the GBP/USD pair traded at 1.2505. For today, immediate resistance lies at 1.2530 followed by 1.2560. Immediate support can be found at 1.2470. On Friday, Sterling opened at 1.2465. The next support level lies at 1.2440. Look for Sterling to trade a likely range today of 1.2450-1.2550. ·      USD/JPY – Against the Japanese Yen, the Dollar saw a more subdued trading day on Friday, settling at 127.85 from its opening at 127.80. Overnight high traded was at 128.30. On the day, immediate resistance can be found at 128.00, 128.30 and 128.60. Immediate support lies at 127.50 (overnight low traded was at 127.53). The next support level is found at 127.20. Look for a sideways trade initially today in USD/JPY, likely between 127.50-128.50. Prefer to buy dips toward 127.50.   Have a good Monday start all, and a profitable trading week ahead.   This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.   This article was written by Michael Moran, ACY Senior Currency Strategist at ACY Securities.  

December 14, 2020

EURUSD failed to breach and stay above the key resistance of 1.2174

EURUSD The EURUSD failed to breach and stay above the key resistance of 1.2174, but it is expected that, once the consolidation in which the pair […]
December 11, 2020

USD/JPY started a fresh increase above 104.00, but it is still facing many hurdles.

EURUSD Technical analysis highlights that the EURUSD pair is currently trading inside a bullish falling price channel. Short-term traders should be aware that rally may be […]

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