EUR/USD is still holding above 1.1688 support for now after yesterday’s decline. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, on the downside, firm break of 1.1688 support should resume the corrective pattern from 1.2011 with another leg. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.1612 support first. Break will target 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2011 at 1.1485. On the upside, though, above 1.1880 will extend the rebound from 1.1612 to retest 1.2011 high.
The near-term outlook for GBP/USD rates suggests a recovery back towards the 1.3100 mark could be in the offing, as price holds above all four moving averages and key support at the August low (1.2981). Moreover, with the RSI and MACD indicator tracking firmly above their respective neutral midpoints, the path of least resistance seems skewed to the upside. However, price appears to be carving out a Rising Wedge continuation pattern, which suggests that a topside push may prove to be a mere short-term rebound. With that in mind, GBP/USD remains vulnerable to a more extensive correction if buyers are unable to break back above the monthly high (1.3177), with a daily close below the 50-DMA (1.2957) and Rising Wedge support bringing the sentiment-defining 200-DMA (1.2799) into focus.
The USD/JPY pair edged higher during the Asian session, albeit lacked any strong follow-through and has now retreated around 15 pips from daily tops near mid-104.00s. The pair managed to regain some positive traction on Thursday and built on the previous day's modest rebound from the 104.10 region, or six-week lows touched in the wake of the global flight to safety. A solid rebound in the US equity futures undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen and was seen as a key factor behind the USD/JPY pair's modest uptick. The JPY was further pressured by the Bank of Japan's downward revision of growth and inflation forecasts for fiscal 2020/21. After the conclusion of the October monetary policy meeting, the BoJ decided to leave benchmark interest rates unchanged at -0.1% and maintain the 10-year Japanese government bond yield target at around 0%.
EUR/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Corrective decline from 127.07 is in progress. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 127.07 at 122.23 will target 61.8% retracement at 119.25, which is close to 119.31 key support. On the upside, above 123.18 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
AUD/USD rates continue to consolidate in a Descending Triangle pattern above key support at the 0.70 mark, despite plunging 1.23% yesterday as souring market sentiment diverted capital flows into haven-associated assets. Given price continues to track above the sentiment-defining 200-DMA (0.6954) however, the longer-term bias remains skewed to the topside. Nevertheless, with the RSI and MACD indicator travelling firmly below their respective neutral midpoints, further losses appear in the offing. Therefore, a pullback towards the support range at 0.6697 – 0.7020 looks likely in the coming days, with a break below opening the door for an extended decline towards the June 15 low (0.6776).
USD/CAD remains on the upside for 1.3418 resistance first. The corrective rebound from 1.2994 is still in progress. Break of 1.3418 will confirm this case and target 100% projection of 1.2994 to 1.3418 from 1.3081 at 1.3505. On the downside, though, break of 1.3225 minor support will mix up the near term outlook again, and turn intraday bias neutral first.
Crude oil prices are back at range support in the 34.64-36.15 area. A daily close below that seems to expose the 27.40-30.73 region next. Resistance is in the 42.40-43.88 zone, with a push back above that putting the $50/bbl figure back in buyers’ crosshairs.
Technically on 4-hours chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price started a fresh decline from the $1,910 swing high and the 200 simple moving average ( 4-hours). It broke the $1,900 support and settled well below the 100 simple moving average ( 4-hours). Moreover, there was a break below a crucial bullish trend line at $1,900. It opened the doors for a sharp decline below the $1,885 support. The price seems to be facing an increase in selling pressure below $1,885. If it breaks the $1,875 support, there is a risk of more losses. The next major support is near the $1,850 level (a multi-touch zone). If there is a fresh increase, the price is likely to face sellers near the $1,885 and $1,888 levels. The main resistance is now forming near $1,900 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours).
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