Euro (1.1770) has moved up as expected to test 1.1785-1.1805. Note that 1.1805 is an important near term resistance and while that holds, Euro could fall back towards 1.17 or even lower. Only a sustained break above 1.18 could keep alive some hopes of a further rise from here. Watch price action near 1.18 for now.
GBP/USD has been surprisingly resilient, hitting a one-month high last week at 1.3082, and struggled to move above 1.3025 yesterday. Currently has solid support at the 1.2850 area, with a break targeting a move back towards the September lows at 1.2675. Brexit headline risk is likely to continue to be the primary driver here, with the risk very much to the upside, and for a move towards 1.3220, while above 1.2800.
USD/JPY is still bounded in range of 104.94/106.10. Another rise is still in favor with 104.94 support intact. On the upside, break of 106.10 will resume the rebound from 104.00 for 106.94 resistance. Sustained break there should confirm completion of the whole decline from 111.71. On the downside, break of 104.94 support will revive near term bearishness and target a test on 104.00 low instead.
EUR/JPY stays neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 123.01 will target 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 127.07 at 122.23. Firm break there will confirm resumption of whole corrective fall from 127.07, and target 61.8% retracement at 119.25, which is close to 119.31 key support. On the upside, though, break of 125.08 will target a retest on 127.07 high.
AUD/USD’s fall from 0.7243 resumes after brief recovery and daily basis back on the downside for 0.7005 support. Break there will confirm resumption of whole corrective fall from 0.7413. Next target will be 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7413 at 0.6685. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7114 minor resistance holds.
USD/CAD stays neutral for consolidation in range of 1.3099/3529. Corrective pattern from 1.2994 might be extending with another rise. On the upside, above 1.3259 will target 1.3418 resistance first. Break will target 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2994 at 1.3633. On the downside, though, break of 1.3099 will bring retest of 1.2994 low instead.
Prices of the West Texas Intermediate keep the multi-week consolidative mood unchanged so far, likely between $36.00 and $41.50 per barrel. Monday’s inconclusive session comes in line with shrinking open interest and rising volume, echoing the erratic performance of prices seen as of late. That said, the $41.50 level still emerges as the next hurdle of note in WTI.
XAU/USD stays sluggish around $1,901 while heading into Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, the yellow metal respects the pullback from a short-term support line while also staying below short-term resistances, namely the 200-bar SMA and a falling trend line from September 16. With the MACD suggesting no clear direction, traders will prefer waiting for a clear break of either $1,918, comprising the resistance line, or a downside break of the support line figures near $1,894. However, the $1,900 threshold and 200-bar SMA level of $1,913 can work as filters during the quote’s further moves. Additionally, the bullion’s run-up past-$1,918 will challenge the monthly high of $1,933 ahead of probing the mid-September peak surrounding $1,973. On the contrary, gold bears’ dominance below $1,894 will have multiple supports around $1,890 and $1,880/75 before directing the precious metal towards the September 28 low of $1,848.82.
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