Forex News

High yield 4.393% WI level at the time of the auction 4.391%. Tail +0.2 basis pointsBid to cover 2.37X versus 2.32XDirects 28.4% vs average of 21.2%.Indirects 61.5% versus average of 65.4%Dealers 10.05% versus average of 13.4%The domestic buyers were the stronger today it ain't 428.4% of the issue. The international buyers were less than the average at 61.5%. The bid to cover was modestly higher than the average. The tail although positive was better than the average of 0.7 basis points.Auction Grade: B This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Dallas Fed trimmed mean PCE came in at 2.2% versus 1.5% last month. That compares favorably to the July core PCE your and your at 3.3%, and the headline PCE year on year at 3.7%. However, the rise from 1.5% last month and moving back above the 2.0% level is going the wrong way.What is the difference between the Trimmed Mean PCE and headline PCE seen earlier?The Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate is an alternative measure of inflation designed to filter out the "noise" from unusually large price moves and provide a better picture of the underlying inflation trend.Here's how it works:Starts with the same data as the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.Instead of removing fixed categories (like food and energy in Core PCE), it removes the most extreme price increases and decreases each month, regardless of what category they come from.After trimming those outliers, it calculates the inflation rate from the remaining components.Why is it useful?Inflation data can be distorted by one-off events:Airline fares surge.Gasoline prices collapse.Egg prices spike due to supply issues.Hotel rates jump because of a special event.Those moves can temporarily skew headline inflation. The Dallas Fed's trimmed mean attempts to answer:"What is inflation doing beneath all the temporary volatility?"So how is it different?This means:If gasoline prices are stable, they remain in the calculation.If medical services suddenly jump 10% in a month, they could be trimmed out.The categories trimmed change every month.Why might the Fed watch it?Many economists believe it is one of the best measures of persistent inflation because it:Reduces monthly volatility.Is less affected by temporary supply shocks.Historically has been a good predictor of future headline inflation.For traders and investors:Headline PCE tells you what consumers are experiencing.Core PCE removes food and energy, but can still be influenced by other volatile categories.Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE often provides the clearest view of underlying inflation momentum and is closely watched by many Fed officials when assessing whether inflation pressures are becoming persistent.What % of the low and high does the Trimmed mean trim away?The Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE removes:24% of the expenditure weight from the lowest price changes 31% from the highest price changes In total, it cuts out 55% of the weighted PCE components, leaving the middle 45% to calculate inflation.The trimming is based on expenditure weights—not simply 55% of the individual categories. Dallas Fed methodologyThere are a total of 176 line items in the PCE report.  Chopping 24% of the lowest price changes gets rid of 56 of the components. The biggest decliners were:Chopping 31% of the largest gainers chopped 67 of the components from the calculation.  The biggest gainers chopped from the list this month were: Overall breadthPrices falling: 61 categories, or 33.7%Prices unchanged: 3 categories, or 1.7%Prices rising: 117 categories, or 64.6%Rising at least 5%: 57 categories, or 31.5%Falling at least 5%: 36 categories, or 19.9%The results show considerably broader price increases than declines. Nearly two-thirds of the categories increased, while roughly one-third declined. Moreover, 57 categories posted increases of at least 5%, compared with 36 categories recording declines of at least 5%.The largest declines were concentrated in cookware, hotels, gasoline, vehicle rentals, fresh vegetables and transportation services. The sharpest increases were found in digital video products, lubricants, household and furniture repairs, recreational books, watches and computer equipment.One important qualification: figures as large as +131.4% or −34.5% strongly suggest these are one-month changes expressed at an annualized rate, rather than literal month-over-month price moves. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The CIA visit to Moscow yesterday led to some optimism about a thawing or potential deal. Instead, we're getting a further cycle of escalation that follows rumors of 300,000 more Russians set to be drafted.In any case, oil is higher on this report and it's hard to see this war ever ending.The Bloomberg report says: Russia is preparing to escalate attacks on Ukraine after concluding that negotiations for a peace deal have reached a dead end, according to three people close to the Kremlin. For now, Russia is weighing an intensification of powerful conventional ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv, including the center of the capital, and infrastructure targets in other Ukrainian cities, the people said.This is obviously being leaked to put pressure on for concessions but the report says that negotiating frameworks have collapsed. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Meta is truly a vilanous company.Just this month, CEO Mark Zuckerberg was writing about all the jobs AI would create. Meanwhile, we learned in a Reuters report today that he was contemplating eliminating 60% of Meta's workforce this year.In any case, he will need the savings as Meta will pay $16.7 billion to 29 states as part of an agreement today, just before jury selection was set to begin in the trial. The accusation was that the company designed Instagram and Facebook to addict children, misled consumers about their safety, and improperly collected personal data of kids.What's bizarre to me is that his will function as a tax on a US company and some states will benefit but Meta did the same thing globally and if any country attemps a digital services tax or regulation, Trump launches a trade war.In any case, this is investinglive, not moralitylive. The shares are up 4.5% pre-market. The history of the internet is that a bunch of ideas have ultimately converged on one killer-app: advertising. Google, Meta and (to a large extent) Amazon make their money in advertising and there's a good chance that the money in AI will be made that way as well. People think that ads "don't work" on them but they do and with AI, they will work better than ever before. Meta's path to victory is to subsidize AI models but use the data to advertize to you. They have the reach, all they need is the model and they have a CEO who is willing to do things like target children and pay the fine if necessary.So the question is: Do you want to be the morality police or do you want to make money? This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +0.5%Ex transport +0.4% vs +0.8% expEx defense +1.3% vs +0.3% priorNon-defense capital goods ex air +0.2% vs +0.9% expThis is a softer report overall but the US dollar has been strengthening on the slightly-hotter PCE report released at the same time. The euro was last down 21 pips on the day to 1.1653. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

GDP 1st estimate 1.6% (they were expecting 2.1% before the 1st release). GDP 2nd revision 1.5% vs 1.5% estimateConsumer Spending 3.4% vs 3.2% preliminary estimateGDP Deflator 6.4% vs 6.2% estimateCore PCE YoY 3.6% vs 3.4% estimatePCE Prices YoY 5.3% vs 5.1% estimatePCE ex food energy and housing Q2 3.4% vs 3.2% preliminaryPCE Services ex energy and housing Q2 3.7% vs 3.4% preliminaryOther details:GDP slowed in Q2: The deceleration reflected lower government spending, slower investment and export growth, and a larger increase in imports. Stronger consumer spending provided a partial offset. Underlying domestic demand remained solid: Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 4.2%, revised up from 3.9%. Inflation was revised higher: The gross domestic purchases price index increased 5.8%, while headline PCE rose 5.3% and core PCE increased 3.6%. Income growth strengthened: Real GDI rose 2.2%, up from 1.2% in Q1. The average of real GDP and GDI increased 1.8%, compared with 1.7% previously. Corporate profits surged: Profits from current production increased by $400.9 billion, sharply higher than the $74.4 billion increase in Q1. Overall, the report shows slower headline GDP growth but stronger consumer demand, income growth and corporate profits. The less favorable side of the report was the renewed inflation pressure and the drag from government spending and net trade.A closer look at the contributing pieces to the GDP of 1.5%:Consumer 2.31%Investment 0.48%Government -0.16%Net trade -1.14% with exports adding 0.50% and imports subtracting -1.64%Below is an infograph of the data and the breakdownUS stocks are little changed with the Dow up 10 points, the S&P is down -20 points, and the Nasdaq is down -109 points.NOTES on Inflation measures and implications:GDP deflator: The broadest measure. It tracks prices for all goods and services produced domestically—including consumer purchases, business investment, government spending and exports. It excludes imports because they are produced outside the United States. Headline PCE: Measures prices paid for goods and services purchased by consumers. It includes food and energy, which can make it more volatile. The Federal Reserve’s long-term 2% inflation goal is defined using headline PCE inflation. Core PCE: The same consumer-price measure but excludes food and energy. Because those prices can swing sharply, core PCE is generally viewed as a better indicator of the underlying inflation trend. The important distinction is that the GDP deflator measures price changes across the entire domestic economy, while PCE focuses only on consumer spending. Core PCE then strips out food and energy to provide a smoother view of underlying consumer inflation.In this report, the 6.4% GDP deflator points to broad price pressure across domestic production. The 5.3% headline PCE reading shows the inflation consumers experienced overall, while 3.6% core PCE suggests underlying consumer inflation remained elevated even after excluding food and energy. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

GDP 1st estimate 1.6% (they were expecting 2.1% before the 1st release). GDP 2nd revision x.x% vs 1.5% estimateConsumer Spending x.x% vs 3.2% preliminary estimateGDP Deflator x.x% vs 6.2% estimateCore PCE YoY x.x% vs 3.4% estimatePCE Prices YoY x.x% vs 5.1% estimatePCE ex food energy and housing Q2 x.x% vs 3.2% preliminaryPCE Services ex energy and housing Q2 x.x% vs 3.4% preliminary This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

UK retail sector remains under pressure as CBI survey shows sharp sales declineOil prices sink as expectations for an imminent US-Iran deal increase. What's next?Nasdaq Analysis: Two Critical Levels to Watch Around Nvidia EarningsSwitzerland August UBS investor sentiment +12.1 vs +10.0 priorNvidia Earnings Tonight: NVDA Levels and Trade PlanECB's Schnabel says the central bank must act early to prevent second-round effectsFX option expiries for 26 August 10am New York cutWhat are the main events for today?It's been a pretty boring session with limited economic data and news releases. On the data side, the Swiss investor sentiment improved further in August, with the UBS Investor Sentiment Index rising to +12.1 from +10.0 in July, marking the second consecutive month in positive territory and the strongest reading since early 2025. The data points to growing optimism about Switzerland's economic outlook.The UK CBI survey showed UK retail conditions deteriorated sharply in August, with the retail sales balance falling to -48% from -26%. Retailers reported weak demand, worsening sentiment, and continued cuts to investment and staffing plans. While sales are expected to remain weak in September, the pace of decline is forecast to slow. Retail price inflation is also expected to accelerate. The CBI called for business rates reform and lower employer taxes to help restore confidence in the sector.We also got some comments from ECB's Schnabel where she warned that the central bank must act early to prevent inflation from feeding into wages and broader prices, as inflation is likely to stay above the 2% target for an extended period. She noted that the Eurozone economy is gaining momentum and further tightening will remain data-dependent. Schnabel also sounded worried about the natural gas situation as a key risk that could reignite inflationary pressures.In the markets, it's been just a slow, rangebound price action throughout the entire session as traders await further US-Iran developments ahead of the Jackson Hole event. In the American session, we have the US PCE price index and the second estimate of the US Q2 GDP. There's always some anticipation for the PCE data, but it's rarely a notable market-mover. That's because the data is known well in advance, as it can be calculated from the US CPI and PPI data. Anyway, the Core PCE Y/Y is expected at 3.3% vs 3.3% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.2% vs 0.1% prior.The market is currently pricing in 65% chance of no change in interest rates at the September FOMC meeting. The pricing will be influenced by potential US-Iran deal, Jackson Hole event and the next CPI report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Full report hereThe UK retail sector faced worsening trading conditions in August, according to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey, as sales volumes fell at their fastest pace in over a year and business sentiment deteriorated further.The CBI's retail sales balance dropped to -48% in August, down sharply from -26% in July. Although sales are still expected to decline in September, firms anticipate the pace of contraction will moderate, with the balance forecast to improve to -22%.Retailers also reported that sales were well below normal seasonal levels, with the balance deteriorating to -26% from -18% in July. Expectations for September remain subdued, with sales projected to continue undershooting seasonal norms.The prolonged period of weak consumer demand weighed heavily on confidence across the sector. Retail sentiment fell at a faster pace in August. Despite the difficult environment, there were tentative signs that investment intentions may be stabilising. Retailers still expect to reduce capital expenditure over the next 12 months, but the planned cutbacks are the smallest since early 2024. Employment also remained under pressure, with retail headcount declining in August, although at a slower pace than earlier in the year.Retail selling prices increased at a faster rate than in the previous quarter and firms expect inflation in retail prices to accelerate significantly in the months ahead. Commenting on the survey, CBI Lead Economist said “Retail firms grew more downbeat in August as they grappled with sharply falling sales volumes. These weak trading conditions, which were echoed across the broader distribution sector, continued to weigh on retailers’ investment and hiring plans.“With parliament returning next week, thoughts will start turning to the Autumn Budget and the steps that the Government can take to restore confidence across retail and the broader distribution sector.“Meaningful business rates reform is long overdue, with firms desperate for a fairer system thatrewards, rather than penalises, investment and growth. The Government should also look to cut Employer NICs to support hiring and ensure the sector can continue to provide job opportunities, particularly for young people.” This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior was +10.0Swiss investor confidence strengthened again in August, with the UBS Investor Sentiment Index rising to +12.1 from +10.0 in July, signalling growing optimism about the outlook for the Swiss economy and financial markets. This marks the second consecutive month in positive territory following a sharp recovery from June's negative reading.Investors have turned more positive on Switzerland's economic prospects despite the US-Iran war and elevated oil prices. Nevertheless, the data won't change anything for the SNB, as the central bank is expected to keep monetary policy unchanged at least until the second half of 2027. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low-tier releases like the Swiss economic sentiment index and UK CBI distributive trades. The data won't change anything for the respective central banks, so the market reaction will be muted.The market is currently focused on US-Iran developments, as expectations for a deal grew stronger yesterday following several positive reports. This is what is likely to be driving the price action ahead of the Jackson Hole event.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we have the US PCE price index and the second estimate of the US Q2 GDP. There's always some anticipation for the PCE data, but it's rarely a notable market-mover. That's because the data is known well in advance, as it can be accurately calculated from the US CPI and PPI data. Anyway, the Core PCE Y/Y is expected at 3.3% vs 3.3% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.2% vs 0.1% prior. The market is currently pricing in 60% chance of no change in interest rates at the September FOMC meeting. The pricing will be influenced by potential US-Iran deal, Jackson Hole event and the next CPI report. CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS10:10 GMT/06:10 ET - ECB's Cipollone (neutral - voter)15:45 GMT/11:45 ET - Fed's Barkin (neutral - non voter)16:15 GMT/12:15 ET - SNB's Martin (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

ICYMI: US begins returning staff to Middle East embassies after Iran war evacuationsHawkish board member Tamura to represent BOJ at Jackson Hole instead of UedaAsian shares edge higher as markets await Nvidia earnings, US inflation dataGold holds near three month high as markets await US inflation dataAUD higher, Australian CPI beats forecasts as core inflation surprises to the upsideAustralian monthly CPI (July 2026) 3.5 % y/y (vs. 3.2% expected)Preview, today: Fed's favoured inflation gauge lands two days before Warsh's Jackson Hole speechJapan's services inflation accelerates to 3.6pct in July, beating forecastsPBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7829 (vs. estimate at 6.7166)US weighs further trade escalation after Canada sets retaliatory tariffsJapan July 2026 Services PPI +3.6% y/y (expected 3.2%, prior 3.2%)Preview: Nvidia reports Q2 results today, guidance implies revenue near $91 billionFour regional Fed banks sought discount rate hike ahead of July FOMC holdFed's Barkin says rising US debt will eventually lead to a reckoningBOJ seen hiking to 1.25pct in September as yen weakness accelerates timelineAxios reports - Rubio tells allies US shifting from strikes to sanctions on IranOil: Private survey of inventory shows headline crude oil build vs. draw expectedOil slides $2 on unconfirmed report of US Iran ceasefire, Hormuz reopeninginvestingLive Americas market news wrap: Some late talk of Iran peaceUS major indices close higher. Technology outperformsSummary:Oil fell in post-settlement trade on an unconfirmed RIA report, citing Pakistani and Iranian sources, of a US-Iran ceasefire including free Hormuz navigation, still unconfirmed but continuing to weigh on the sessionAxios reports Secretary of State Rubio has told allies the US is shifting from strikes to sanctions on Iran, citing the naval blockade and Hormuz mine clearance as reducing Tehran's leverageReuters reports the US has begun returning staff to Middle East embassies evacuated during the Iran warFed's Richmond president Barkin told Bloomberg rising US debt will eventually cause a "reckoning," while maintaining his preference for holding rates steady given easing inflation, though he flagged officials may need to hike if price pressures become embeddedA White House official says the Trump administration is weighing further tariffs on Canada after PM Mark Carney's retaliatory tariffs, due to take effect 8 September. The Canadain dollar fell.Australian July CPI beat forecasts, with core inflation particularly firm, bringing an RBA hike at the 28-29 September meeting into play; AUD rose to a 12-week high, with RBA September hike pricing jumping to over 35% from just above 10% the previous dayJapan's Corporate Services Price Index rose 3.6% year on year in July, beating forecasts and reinforcing the case for a near term BOJ rate hikeThe BOJ confirmed Governor Ueda will skip this week's Jackson Hole symposium, with board member Tamura attending in his placeThe PBOC set today's USD/CNY midpoint notably wider than estimates, the largest deviation since 27 FebruaryJapanese and South Korean shares rose ahead of Nvidia's earnings and US PCE data, both due later Wednesday Oil fell in post-settlement trade after an unconfirmed report from Russian agency RIA, citing Pakistani and Iranian sources, claimed a US-Iran ceasefire had been agreed including free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The report remains uncorroborated by Western wires or Iranian state media, but continued to weigh on prices through the session.The move was reinforced by separate reporting from Axios that Secretary of State Marco Rubio has told allied foreign ministers the US is shifting its approach from military strikes to sanctions on Iran for now, citing the naval blockade and mine clearance operations in the Strait of Hormuz as having reduced Tehran's leverage over global oil flows. Adding to the de-escalatory tone, Reuters reported that the US has begun returning staff to Middle East embassies that were evacuated or downsized during the Iran war, with posts in Lebanon, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Baghdad among those being restaffed.On the US fiscal and rates front, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin was cited by Bloomberg warning that rising US debt will eventually lead to a reckoning, cautioning that at some point investors could stop buying US debt. Barkin maintained his preference for holding interest rates steady given evidence of easing inflation, while acknowledging that officials may need to raise rates if price pressures become embedded.Trade tensions between the US and Canada also escalated, with a White House official saying the Trump administration is considering further tariffs against Canada following Prime Minister Mark Carney's announcement of retaliatory tariffs, set to take effect from 8 September. The official said President Trump retains a range of tools to resolve the dispute should negotiations fail to resume. The Canadain dollar fell against the USD, although the dollar was stronger more broadly. In Australia, July CPI data came in well above expectations, with core inflation particularly firm, bringing a Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike at the 28-29 September meeting firmly into play. The data raises the risk that inflation remains too high and fails to fall in line with the RBA's own forecasts. Markets responded quickly, sending the Australian dollar to a 12-week high, with pricing for a September RBA hike jumping to more than 35 percent from just above 10 percent the previous day.In Japan, the Corporate Services Price Index rose 3.6 percent year on year in July, beating forecasts and up from a revised 3.4 percent in June, reinforcing signs of broadening inflationary pressure and adding further weight to expectations of a near term Bank of Japan rate hike. Separately, the BOJ confirmed that Governor Kazuo Ueda will not attend this week's Jackson Hole symposium, with board member Naoki Tamura attending in his place.Elsewhere, the People's Bank of China set today's USD/CNY midpoint notably wider than market estimates, the largest such deviation since 27 February this year. Japanese and South Korean shares both rose in early trade, with investors positioning ahead of Nvidia's earnings and the US PCE inflation report, both due later on Wednesday. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

July 2026 inflation data from Australia. Background this here, preview.  Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.5%expected 3.2%, prior 3.8%1% (MoM) expected 0.8%, prior -0.1%Core inflation, the Trimmed Mean CPI 3.6% (YoY) expected 3.5%, prior 3.6% Trimmed Mean 0.5% (MoM) expected 0.3%, prior 0.3%I'll have more to come on this separately, details and RBA implications.ADDED: AUD higher, Australian CPI beats forecasts as core inflation surprises to the upside This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Today's PCE print carries added weight given its timing, landing just two days ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote and before Nvidia's earnings, making this a genuinely stacked stretch for US macro risk. A softer than expected core reading would likely reinforce the case for continued rate cuts and could pressure the dollar while supporting risk assets, whereas a hotter print would revive the hawkish argument that has already produced an unusually split FOMC vote and rising discount rate dissent. Given June's headline figure was a rare negative print, today's data will also be read as a signal of whether that dip was a genuine turn or a one off distortion, with the answer likely to shape how much weight markets place on Warsh's remarks on Friday.--- The Fed's preferred inflation gauge is expected to confirm progress is real but slow, leaving Warsh's Friday speech to decide what that means for rates.Summary:The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its Personal Income and Outlays report for July today, Wednesday 26 August, at 8:30am Eastern (12:30pm GMT)FactSet consensus sees headline PCE rising 0.07% month on month, following a 0.11% decline in June, with the year on year rate easing to 3.6% from 3.7%Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, is forecast to rise 0.18% month on month, with year on year estimates ranging from holding at 3.3% to easing slightly to 3.2%Independent forecaster Continuum Economics expects the data to track July's CPI closely, seeing headline at 0.1% and core at 0.2% month on monthNatixis chief US economist Christopher Hodge takes a slightly more hawkish view, forecasting headline PCE unchanged at 3.70% year on year, citing continued upward pressure from computer hardware and software prices tied to AI and data centre investmentJune's PCE reading was the first negative month on month print since 2020, meaning today's data will be watched closely for whether that dip proves durable or reversesThe release lands two days ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote address as chair, scheduled for Friday The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its Personal Income and Outlays report for July today, Wednesday 26 August, at 8:30am Eastern time, delivering the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge at a moment when the central bank's rate path remains genuinely contested.Consensus forecasts compiled by FactSet see headline PCE inflation rising 0.07% on the month, a rebound from June's 0.11% decline, which was the first negative monthly PCE reading since 2020. On an annual basis, headline inflation is expected to ease modestly to 3.6% from 3.7%. Core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy prices and is the measure the Fed watches most closely, is forecast to rise 0.18% month on month, with economists divided over whether the year on year rate holds at 3.3% or eases slightly to 3.2%.Independent forecasters broadly align with that picture, though with some divergence in emphasis. Continuum Economics expects the July PCE data to closely mirror the already released July CPI report, forecasting headline inflation at 0.1% and core at 0.2% month on month, which would take the annual core rate down to 3.2% from June's 3.3%. Natixis chief US economist Christopher Hodge takes a somewhat firmer view, forecasting headline PCE unchanged at 3.70% year on year, and noting that while broader tariff related price pressure appears to be fading, computer hardware and software prices tied to the ongoing artificial intelligence and data centre investment boom continue to add to core inflation readings.The data lands at a particularly sensitive point in the Fed's policy calendar. It follows last week's release of both the July FOMC minutes, which revealed broader support for a rate hike than the formal 9-3 vote suggested, and this week's discount rate minutes, showing four of the Fed's twelve regional bank boards had favoured tightening ahead of that same meeting. Today's PCE print will be one of the last major data points available before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote address as chair on Friday, an appearance being closely watched for signals on whether the Fed leans toward holding rates, resuming cuts, or shifting back toward tightening.Asset markets are expected to react in a fairly conventional pattern depending on the outcome. A softer than forecast core reading would likely support equities, particularly growth and technology stocks, while weighing on the dollar and lifting gold, consistent with reduced pressure for further tightening. A hotter than expected print would likely have the opposite effect, pushing Treasury yields higher, pressuring growth stocks, strengthening the dollar and prompting profit taking in gold, while reinforcing the hawkish case that has already produced unusual dissent within the Fed's own ranks this cycle. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The upside surprise adds another data point to the case for a near term BOJ hike, arriving alongside already sharply shifted economist expectations for a September move to 1.25%. With core consumer inflation also accelerating on the back of a weak yen and elevated import costs tied to the Iran conflict, the breadth of price pressure now spans both consumer and business facing measures, which strengthens the argument that the BOJ is genuinely behind the curve rather than facing a temporary spike. For yen crosses, this reinforces rather than shifts the existing narrative, since a September hike is already the majority view among economists, but it raises the cost of any surprise hold, since the data keeps stacking in favour of tightening rather than easing that pressure.--- Japanese firms are passing on rising costs faster than expected, and the BOJ's hand looks increasingly forced.Summary:Japan's Corporate Services Price Index rose 3.6% year on year in July, above the 3.2% forecast and up from a revised 3.4% gain in JuneOn a month on month basis, the index rose 0.4%, reversing a 0.4% decline in the prior monthThe index tracks prices companies charge each other for services and is viewed as a signal of how far firms are passing rising costs on to consumersThe Bank of Japan has cited a tight labour market as a key driver pushing businesses to raise service pricesThe data follows separate figures showing Japan's core consumer inflation accelerated in July, driven by rising import costs tied to a weak yen and the US-Israeli war with IranReuters sources say the BOJ is set to raise its policy rate as soon as September and may consider a more aggressive hiking pace than its historical rhythm of roughly two moves a year A key gauge of inflation in Japan's services sector accelerated further in July, adding to signs of broadening price pressure that are reinforcing expectations for a near term interest rate increase from the Bank of Japan. Data released Wednesday showed the Corporate Services Price Index, which tracks prices companies charge one another for services, rose 3.6% year on year in July, above the 3.2% forecast and up from a revised 3.4% gain in June. On a monthly basis, the index rose 0.4%, reversing a 0.4% decline recorded the previous month.The acceleration reinforces the Bank of Japan's existing view that a tight domestic labour market is pushing firms to pass on rising costs to consumers rather than absorbing them through margins, a dynamic the central bank has been monitoring closely as a signal of underlying inflation persistence beyond temporary import cost pressures.The services data follows separately released figures showing Japan's core consumer inflation also accelerated in July, with firms passing on higher import costs stemming from a weak yen alongside broader price pressures linked to the ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran. Taken together, the two data sets point to inflationary pressure building across both the consumer and business facing sides of the economy, rather than being confined to a single import driven channel.The timing adds further weight to expectations that have shifted sharply over the past month. Sources have told Reuters the Bank of Japan is set to raise its policy rate as soon as September, and is weighing a more aggressive tightening pace than its historical rhythm of roughly two hikes a year. That shift follows a Reuters poll showing a majority of economists now expect a September move to 1.25%, compared with just a small minority holding that view as recently as July.The broadening nature of the price pressure, spanning consumer prices, import costs and now business to business services, strengthens the case that the central bank faces genuine urgency to act rather than simply responding to a transitory shock. With the currency's persistent weakness continuing to complicate the inflation picture despite last month's coordinated intervention, today's data adds another data point supporting the view that the BOJ's tightening path is likely to move faster, and potentially further, than policymakers had previously signalled. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.