Forex News

FedEx reported earnings this week and it's a company worth watching because freight demand is a great proxy for economic activity. Here is Brie Carere, EVP & Chief Customer Officer:“I was concerned a quarter ago that we maybe would see some demand destruction. That has not at all been the case.”Raj Subramaniam, President & CEO“We are growing revenue in the most premium segments of the global economy.”Combined, these two quotes highlight what is going on in the global economy and particularly in the US. Growth is surprisingly resilient to shocks like Trump's tariffs and the Iran war. That's a very good thing. Secondly, the upper end of the economy is doing very well. I would no longer call it a K-shaped economy because the lower part isn't going down. It's either going sideways or up only slightly.I think that's a good baseline for investing right now and the durability of the economies in Europe and elsewhere despite these shocks points to upside growth risks. “There’s a little bit of inventory buildup and restocking going on," Carere said. Another line from her is that “we are seeing these initial time-critical shipments convert quickly into larger repeatable revenue streams," which points to a growth in customer spending, business and confidence.Finally, since AI is driving everything right now, it's highlighting is that even FedEx is a beneficiary of the AI capex boom as Carere said this:“The AI and data center space is an emerging and rapidly scaling growth engine for us, delivering double-digit revenue growth, Carere said.This is a sign that the AI capex spend is broadening out. In the quarters ahead, I expect an intense focus to remain on earnings from hyperscalers and chip names because that's the battleground right now but there is an edge to be gained from investigating how the spending is trickling down through the economy. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Major stock indices close modestly lower with the Nasdaq leading the way.Rubio: Framework raises hopes for peace, but major obstacles remainCrude oil settles the day/week at $69.23Hezbollah's Fadlallah: Cannot enforce Washington agreement unless they go to civil warUS, Israel and Lebanon sign trilateral agreementTrump says any European country that implements digital services tax will get 100% tariffBitcoin threatening to close below the 200 week MA for the first time since October 2023The Empire Strikes Back is the theme in today's marketFed's Kashkari: May need to raise rates amid broad inflationUMich final June consumer sentiment 49.5 vs 50.0 expectedThe market is souring on the idea of AI at all costs. Five thoughts on what's coming nextUS May wholesale inventories +0.3% vs +0.3% expectedUS May advance goods trade balance -105.8 billion vs -85.0 billion expectedThe USD is mixed with some late week dollar selling seen in the major currency pairsinvestingLive European markets wrap: Oil drops further, stocks down with eyes on big techThe U.S. dollar ended Friday slightly mixed but still posted a gain for the week as investors turned more cautious toward risk assets. The greenback came under pressure from falling U.S. Treasury yields, particularly at the short and intermediate maturities, and another sharp decline in crude oil prices as markets grew increasingly confident that Middle East tensions would not disrupt energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. On the currency front, the dollar fell vs the EUR, GBP, CAD but declines were modest. The greenback rose vs the AUD and NZD. It as near unchanged vs the CHF and JPY. Dollar Performance vs. Major CurrenciesEUR/USD: Euro rose 0.13% to 1.1384GBP/USD: British pound rose 0.01% to 1.3192USD/JPY: Dollar fell 0.02% to 161.74 yenUSD/CHF: Dollar fell 0.05% to 0.8094 Swiss francsUSD/CAD: Canadian dollar rose 0.09%, with USD/CAD falling to 1.4185AUD/USD: Australian dollar fell 0.22% to 0.6893NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar fell 0.19% to 0.5636For the trading week, the USD ended stronger vs all the major currencies with the largest gains coming vs the AUD and the NZD. The greenbacks gains were limited vs the JPY as the USDJPY tested the 40 year high at 161.95 and found willing sellers. EUR, +0.72%JPY +0.27%GBP +0.31%CHF +0.33%CAD, +0.27%AUD +1.70%NZD +1.82%The broader S&P and NASDAQ indices closed lower for the fifth consecutive days (althoug declines in the S&P were modest over the last three trading days). The NASDAQ was the weakest performer, falling 0.24%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.09% and the S&P 500 edged lower by 0.05%.The NASDAQ index was down 4.60% for the week.The S&P 500 was down 1.95%, its worst weekly performance since the week ending June 1.The Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to hold up relatively well. Although it slipped 0.09% on the day, the blue-chip index still gained 0.60% for the week and remains higher by 1.65% for June.US yields today fell in the shorter and. The longer end saw modest gains:2 year yield 4.096%, -2.4 basis points 5 year yield 4.133%, -2.9 basis points10 year yield 4.376% -1.5 basis points30 year yield 4.868%, +0.9 point basis pointsLooking at the economic data today:US advance goods trade balance The goods deficit widened sharply to -$105.8B versus -$85.0B expected and -$82.4B prior. Exports fell while imports rose, making net trade a likely drag on Q2 GDP trackers. Bias: weaker.US wholesale/retail inventories Wholesale inventories rose 0.3%, in line with estimates, while retail inventories rose 0.6%. Inventory accumulation can support GDP, but only if demand holds up. Bias: neutral to mildly stronger.University of Michigan consumer sentiment Final June sentiment came in at 49.5, below the 50.0 expected, but above the preliminary 48.9 and May’s 44.8. Consumers are still gloomy, but sentiment improved from May. Bias: mixed, but still weak overall.Overall bias The combined data lean weaker economically. The larger trade deficit is the main negative, sentiment remains depressed, and inventories provide only a modest offset.Fed's Kashkari spoke for the first time since the FOMC rate decision last week. Kashkari struck a notably hawkish tone on Friday, saying he has shifted from expecting a rate cut earlier this year to now penciling in one rate hike by year-end. Kashkari said inflation pressures are becoming more broad-based and are no longer just about higher energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict. He also expressed concern that geopolitical risks remain elevated and cautioned against assuming the inflation threat has passed. Kashkari emphasized that his forecast is not set in stone—calling it "a pencil" projection that will depend on incoming data—but reiterated that inflation has been running too high for too long and remains the Fed's top priority. His comments reinforce the increasingly hawkish shift within the Fed, where a growing number of policymakers now see the possibility that rates may need to move higher rather than lower if inflation fails to cool. Next week the US jobs report will highlight the week's data. The date will be released on Thursday due to the observance of the July 4th holiday on July 3. Fed Chair Warsh and other central bankers will highlight the speakers when they all speak on Wednesday at 9 AM. Key Economic Calendar: Week of June 29 – July 3Monday, June 29Key Speakers1:30 PM ET: ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks. Tuesday, June 30Economic ReleasesGerman Preliminary CPI (m/m): Forecast +0.1% | Prior -0.2% Canada GDP (m/m): Forecast +0.4% | Prior -0.1% U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence: Forecast 94.2 | Prior 93.1 U.S. JOLTS Job Openings: Forecast 7.28M | Prior 7.62M Wednesday, July 1Economic ReleasesEurozone Core CPI Flash Estimate (y/y): Forecast 2.5% | Prior 2.5% Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate (y/y): Forecast 3.0% | Prior 3.2% U.S. ADP Employment Change: Forecast +118K | Prior +122K U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: Forecast 53.7 | Prior 54.0 U.S. ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid: Forecast 79.0 | Prior 82.1 Key Speakers9:00 AM ET: BOC Governor Tiff Macklem speaks. 9:00 AM ET: ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks. 9:00 AM ET: BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks. 9:00 AM ET: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks. 10:30 AM ET: ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks. Thursday, July 2Economic ReleasesSwitzerland CPI (m/m): Forecast +0.1% | Prior +0.2% U.S. Average Hourly Earnings (m/m): Forecast +0.3% | Prior +0.3% U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls: Forecast +114K | Prior +172K U.S. Unemployment Rate: Forecast 4.3% | Prior 4.3% U.S. Initial Jobless Claims: Forecast 220K | Prior 215K Friday, July 3Key Speakers4:00 AM ET: ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks. 11:00 AM ET: BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio outlined a framework aimed at ending hostilities and restoring stability in Lebanon. The proposal attempts to balance Israel's security concerns with Lebanon's sovereignty while addressing the longstanding issue of Hezbollah's military infrastructure.Rubio said: The framework establishes a clear and structured process to restore Lebanon's sovereignty, disarm Hezbollah, and dismantle its military infrastructure. The agreement would enable Israel to return to its borders once the threat to its citizens has been removed.The agreement creates a trilateral military coordination group for Lebanon facilities by US US will remain fully engaged and committed significant resources, including an immediate $100 million in humanitarian assistance in coordination with the UN. Department of war is prepared to reimburse Lebanese Armed Forces with more than 30 million under existing authorities and appropriationsThe Lebanese prime minister says Lebanon's obligation under framework is to extend state authority through Armed Forces over all the territory.Why the framework mattersThe proposal is one of the clearest indications yet that Washington is attempting to engineer a broader security arrangement between:Israel, which insists that Hezbollah's military capabilities near its northern border must be dismantled before it can fully withdraw. Lebanon, which seeks to restore full sovereignty and avoid another devastating conflict. The United States, which is trying to broker a durable security arrangement while limiting the risk of a wider regional war. Iran, Hezbollah's principal backer, whose influence over the group's military and political decision-making remains a central issue. The biggest obstacle to any agreement remains Hezbollah itself.In recent comments, Hezbollah's leadership has made clear that: The group does not view its weapons as negotiable absent broader guarantees. Hezbollah argues its armed presence remains necessary as a "resistance" force against Israel. The organization has signaled that it will not accept arrangements that it perceives as a surrender or an externally imposed disarmament. This creates a direct conflict with Rubio's framework, which explicitly calls for: The restoration of Lebanese state authority. The dismantling of Hezbollah's military infrastructure. The eventual disarmament of the organization. Israel's concernsFrom Israel's perspective, any agreement must ensure: Hezbollah fighters and weapons are removed from areas near the border. Missile and drone threats against northern Israeli communities are eliminated. Security guarantees are enforceable and not merely temporary ceasefires. Israel's experience following previous agreements, including the implementation challenges surrounding UN Resolution 1701 after the 2006 war, has left policymakers skeptical of arrangements that lack robust enforcement mechanisms.Iran's roleIran's influence further complicates negotiations.Tehran views Hezbollah as: A strategic deterrent against Israel. A critical component of its regional security architecture. An important source of influence in the Levant. As a result, any effort to dismantle Hezbollah's military capabilities could be viewed in Tehran as a reduction of Iranian regional leverage, making a negotiated settlement considerably more difficult.There are a lot of dots that need to be connected with any number of actors causing the peace to unravel What started as US and Isreal vs Iran, has turned into Israel vs Hezbollah, Israel vs Lebanon, US vs Lebanon, Iran vs US and Israel, Hezbollah vs Lebanon. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Hezbollah's Fadlallah is telling Al Mayadeen that:Authorities cannot enforce Washington agreement unless they go to Civil War with the US support.What happened in Washington was attempt to obstruct Islamabad track and without the resistance nothing will pass.Report confront any measure taken by Lebanese authorities, hold onto his weapons even more. Groups opposition is a serious and will not allow authorities to implement commitments on the ground.Regarding a potential peace agreement between the U.S., Israel, and Lebanon: Any formal agreement would be negotiated by the Lebanese government, led by President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, along with Lebanon's official diplomatic and military representatives. However, because Hezbollah is both a political party and an armed organization with significant influence in Lebanon, its acceptance or rejection of any deal affecting southern Lebanon, border security, or disarmament would be politically important, even if it is not a formal signatory to the agreement. Hassan Fadlallah has publicly opposed direct Lebanon-Israel negotiations and has stated that Hezbollah would not accept a one-sided ceasefire arrangement. Fadlallah is not accepting the agreement. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Secretary of State Rubio said that there is a framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon after talks in Washington. He added that there is still a lot of work ahead. The US, Israel, and Lebanon signed a trilateral framework agreement.There are no further details. Netanyahu adds:The agreement between Israel and Lebanon is a major blow to Iran. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Trump writes:Numerous European Countries have been discussing the imminent implementation of a Digital Services Tax on American Companies. Some of these Countries are close to actually doing this. Please let this statement serve to represent that any Country that imposes such a Tax will immediately be met with a 100% TARIFF on any and all Goods sent to the United States of America. This TARIFF will supersede Trade Deals made with the Country, whether implemented, signed, or not. Additionally, the 100% TARIFF will be immediately imposed, if they proceed. Thank you for your attention to this matter.You have to wonder what the megacap tech companies offered Trump in exchange for him immediately and relentlessly fighting for this issue from the very get-go.And, of course, we know how it ends as Europe always rolls over. I maintain that the biggest surprise of last year was Europe immediately caving when the US launched tariffs. It was the only bloc with the size to fight back. In fact, I would argue that the whole point of the EU was to combine and be big enough to be in a position to fight back. Yet they caved in something way beyond any of the Trump TACOs.Separately, Trump also wrote about Iranian attacks on ships but the "foolish violation" rhetoric is a reminder that he's desperate to make a deal and get out of this war.The Islamic Republic of Iran shot at least four One Way Attack Drones at Ships transversing the Strait of Hormuz. One of the Drones solidly hit the upper deck of a large and very expensive Cargo Carrying Ship. Damage was done, but the Ship was able to proceed on its way. We knocked down three other Drones. Obviously, this is a foolish violation of our Ceasefire Agreement. Eyes will be on Israel-Lebanon in the days ahead as a precondition for a deal.Update: On that note, Axios' Barak Ravid reports "Israeli and Lebanese officials tell me that an announcement is expected today of a framework agreement between the two governments after four days of negotiations in Washington." This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The oil market briefly jumped earlier when the UAE sent out this message to resident cell phones.That was amplified by a report of explosions -- untrue -- in Iran's media.The alert was withdrawn just 2 minutes after it was issued and now it all appears to have been some kind of technical mistake. The officials are calling it a "technical malfunction" but it seems near-impossible to me that a human wouldn't have been in the loop somewhere or that it was some kind of test that went wrong.In any case, oil quickly rose $1 on it but the market sorted it out fairly quickly. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prelim was 48.9Final May reading was 44.8This is still an improvement from May but not quite as big of one. In my view, this report no longer has any value for traders or economists. It hasn't been able to pick up any shifts in spending for years. It's a political barometer now. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

This is all breaking now and it's not clear where the missile came from or if it was a drone but they're now out with a phone notification saying the situation is now safe. Iran's Tansim reported that an explosion was heard in Dubai but i want to treat that with some skepticism until it's confirmed. Oil prices jumped more than $1 from prior levels of the headlines. There were only two minutes between the warning and the 'all clear' which makes me wonder if it was some kind of mistake.If the whole thing was a market-manipulation scheme, it would be perfectly on-brand for 2026. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Here are a few thoughts on what's happening with AI capex at the moment.Three things happened yesterday:Apple raised prices on many products, and significantly, due to memory costsMicrosoft announced X-Box price increases for the same reasonAmazon announced it will raise prices on GPU instances by 20% on July 1That's highlighting that companies are no longer willing to subsidized AI costs to maintain market share and is the beginning of a push back on the intense drain on free cash flow from AI. “Unfortunately, price increases are unavoidable,” Tim Cook said this month. “We’re doing our best to mitigate the huge increases that are being passed to us, and we’ve been trying to shield our customers from the increases, but the situation has become unsustainable.”The big recent stock market declines will also motivate companies to find savings and that means pushing back on suppliers or re-calibrating timelines.Secondly, this poll obviously isn't scientific but it surprised me and maybe it shouldn't have:I've long thought it would be Meta that quits first but MSFT shares are down more and on track for their worst monthly loss since 2008. Zuck tanked META stock by 70% before he gave up on the Metaverse and we're still a long way from there. Microsoft has shown very few wins on AI and Co-Pilot is something of a joke. They aren't even really in the race so maybe it's time for them to play a different game.In any case, the market is increasingly coming around to the idea that someone will drop out. Keep an eye on Microsoft.Thirdly, here is some perspective on capex:Micron guided to revenue of $50 billion next quarter, which is $200 billion annualized. For perspective, total AI capex this year is $750 billion for hyperscalers. That's the equivalent of 26% of all spending going to Micron. Now I understand that much of that money is spent by consumers via things like Apple products but Micron revenue in quarters before the capex boom started was $4 billion so $46 billion of that (or $184 billion annualized) of that is new money coming from somewhere.That's an insane amount of money. As Tim Cook said "the situation has become unsustainable."Fourthly, Micron is now in everyone's crosshairs. This is from Tsachy Mishal:When had everyone by the balls, every company came up with an alternative for GPUs. The idea that the richest, most technologically advanced companies in the world will just pay insane prices for a commodity product foreverMicron shares are down 6.7% pre-market and well on their way to closing yesterday's opening gap.Fifth.Speaking of Nvidia, when you combined their revenue with Micron, that means combined are extracting $525B per year from the economy, mostly via megacap tech. Hyperscalers are spending all their cash flow on chips and memory. That's run out and now they're taking on debt and Alphabet even -- shockingly -- issued equity. They are obviously hitting a spending wall. They likely cannot accelerate spending beyond what it is today. Yet Micron and Nvidia are are projecting growth? From who? This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior month Wholesale inventories 0.7% (revised from 0.5% initially reported)Prior month retail inventories 0.7%May Advance Inventories Report – Key TakeawaysWholesale inventories: Rose 0.3% in May to $944.0 billion. Annual change in wholesale inventories: Up 4.3% versus May 2025. April wholesale inventory revision: Revised higher to +0.7% from the preliminary estimate of +0.6%. Retail inventories: Increased 0.6% in May to $832.2 billion. Annual change in retail inventories: Up 3.4% from May 2025. April retail inventory growth: Remained unrevised at +0.7%. Market Implications Inventory growth at both the wholesale and retail levels suggests businesses continue to rebuild stockpiles. That can be good or bad. If stockpiles are rising because sales are slower it is unwanted inventories. If it is to meet demand, it is good growth. The upward revision to wholesale inventories could provide a modest boost to estimates for Q2 GDP, as inventory accumulation contributes positively to economic growth. Retail inventories increased at a faster pace than wholesale inventories in May (+0.6% vs. +0.3%), indicating retailers may be preparing for stronger consumer demand in the coming months OR they may not be selling either. Overall, the data point to steady business activity and resilient supply chains, though larger inventory buildups can become a headwind if demand slows unexpectedly.For background, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey , conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, is one of the government's key economic indicators, tracking sales, end-of-month inventories, and inventories-to-sales ratios for merchant wholesalers across the country. The survey excludes manufacturers' sales branches and offices, as well as wholesale electronic markets, agents, and brokers. Each month, the Census Bureau surveys a probability sample of approximately 4,200 employer firms, stratified by industry and sales size, with estimates adjusted for seasonal variation and trading day differences but not for price changes.The wholesale sector serves as a critical intermediary in the U.S. supply chain, connecting manufacturers and producers with retailers and other businesses. Because wholesalers sit between production and final sale, their sales and inventory levels offer valuable signals about the direction of broader economic activity — rising inventories relative to sales can suggest slowing demand, while falling ratios may indicate strengthening conditions. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was -82.4BExports of goods for May were $207.7 billion, $11.8 billion less than April exportsImports of goods for May were $313.4 billion, $10.9 billion more than April importsThis is the worst since July 2025 and this will mean downgrades to Q2 growth estimates, including GDP trackers.The US goods trade deficit widened sharply in the May advance release, blowing out to $105.8 billion from $83.0 billion in April. That's more than a $20 billion deterioration in a single month, and it came from both sides of the ledger — exports fell to $207.7 billion while imports rose to $313.4 billion. The deficit is also running wider than a year ago, when the May 2025 balance sat at $91.5 billion.The instinct is to pin the import surge on the AI buildout, but the data doesn't support that read. Spending on data center gear and embedded semiconductors shows up in capital goods, and while capital goods imports stayed elevated, they didn't climb further. So the AI capex story is real, but it isn't what moved this print.The bigger driver was the export side. Industrial supplies led the decline, falling to $82.7 billion from $89.0 billion, and that almost certainly traces back to gold. The trade numbers were artificially supported in Q1 by gold that had been pulled into the US ahead of tariff deadlines and then re-exported. That distortion is now unwinding, and the deficit is simply giving back what those one-offs had masked.On the import side, autos and consumer goods — both soft in recent months — turned higher. The pharmaceutical angle is worth watching: US drug companies front-loaded inventory from Ireland last year to get ahead of tariffs, and those stockpiles are thinning out. As they rebuild, imports from Ireland come back, which adds to the total.Underneath the monthly noise, the structural picture is what matters. A widening fiscal deficit, driven by softer tariff revenue and OBBBA refunds, combined with an AI investment boom increasingly financed by debt, points toward a structurally larger trade gap. The gold reversal is the swing factor in May, but a firmer dollar, the capital spending wave and higher memory chip prices are all working in the same direction.For background, the U.S. advance goods trade balance is a monthly report published by the Census Bureau as part of its Advance Economic Indicators Report, released roughly a week ahead of the comprehensive FT-900 international trade figures. It captures trade in goods only, measured on a Census basis by principal end-use category, giving markets an early read on exports, imports, and the goods deficit for the reference month. Because goods flows account for most of the month-to-month volatility in the broader trade balance, the advance release is closely tracked as an input to GDP nowcasting, which was downgraded yesterday for Q2. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:US futures marked lower after tumultuous Wall Street session yesterdayEUR/USD is retesting a key zone amid US dollar weakness on peak hawkish repricingIran says Strait of Hormuz shipping will be governed by terms of memorandum with OmanThere's still mud in the waters on how things are playing out with the Strait of HormuzHow have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?ECB survey shows inflation expectations dropping markedly and growth outlook improvingMild dollar buying expected this month-end - Credit AgricoleMarkets:S&P 500 futures down 0.5%, Nasdaq futures down 1.2%European stocks drop, DAX down 1.2% and CAC 40 down 0.8%WTI crude down 3% to $69.70EUR leads, AUD lags on the dayUS 10-year yields down 1 bps to 4.38%Gold up 0.6% to $4,050It was a more tentative session as markets are holding more mixed. While traders and investor remain calm on the US-Iran situation as reflected in oil prices, there is some nervousness and anxiety in equities after the AI push and pull yesterday.Big tech is in focus after the selloff yesterday and that's leading to a more sluggish mood with S&P 500 futures down 0.5% and Nasdaq futures down 1.2% on the day. All eyes will be on how Wall Street takes to that later today, with the reaction being one that could spill over to broader markets.As we await further US-Iran developments, oil prices are down with WTI crude lower by 3% to $69.70. Technical talks on Iran's nuclear/uranium will only begin next week but for now, traders are sensing some calm despite mixed signals from the Strait of Hormuz.In other markets, the dollar is down slightly after the more solid gains this week. EUR/USD is back up by 0.3% to 1.1400 while USD/JPY is still just keeping thereabouts near the 2024 highs, down 0.1% today to 161.60 levels.Meanwhile, precious metals are also seeing a slight bounce towards the final stretch of the week. Gold is up 0.6% to $4,050 with silver up 0.6% to $58.20 on the day.There's not much else to it as we also near month-end and quarter-end, with rebalancing flows perhaps a consideration before the weekend and/or early next week into the London fix. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Full report hereThe ECB Consumer Expectations Survey for May 2026 showed a mixed but slightly improving outlook for the Eurozone economy. The most notable development was a decline in short-term inflation expectations, suggesting consumers are becoming more confident that price pressures are easing. Median inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell significantly to 3.5% from 4.0% in April, while perceptions of inflation over the previous 12 months remained unchanged at 4.0%. Medium-term inflation expectations remained stable, with expectations for inflation three years ahead holding at 2.9% and five-year expectations unchanged at 2.4%, indicating that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.On household finances, consumers became somewhat more optimistic about income prospects. Expected nominal income growth over the next 12 months rose to 1.0% from 0.8% in April, pointing to slightly improved wage expectations. At the same time, consumers reported that spending growth over the previous year increased marginally to 5.4% from 5.3%. However, expectations for spending growth over the coming 12 months declined to 3.8% from 4.3%, suggesting households may be planning to moderate consumption as they remain cautious about future economic conditions.The survey also showed a modest improvement in growth expectations. Consumers still expect the economy to contract over the next 12 months, but they are less pessimistic than before, with expected economic growth improving to -1.7% from -2.2% in April. Despite this improvement, concerns about the labour market persisted. Expectations for the unemployment rate in 12 months rose slightly to 11.3% from 11.2%, remaining above the perceived current unemployment rate of 10.7%. This suggests households still expect some softening in labour market conditions.Overall, the May 2026 survey suggests that while Eurozone consumers are increasingly confident that inflation is moving lower and economic conditions may be stabilizing, they remain cautious due to weak growth, rising unemployment concerns, and tighter access to credit. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

US-GCC joint statement (here) contains "interventionist and provocative positions"US military presence in Gulf region is a major source of insecurity and divisionSecurity in the region can only be achieved through cooperation among countries without interferenceUS, Israel and regional states that took part in attacks on Iran are responsible for insecurity in HormuzShipping will be governed by terms of war-end memorandum with OmanThe key passage in the US-GCC joint statement on the Hormuz situation was this:"The ministers also emphasised the importance of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, noting that free, unconditional, and unrestricted navigation, including the right of transit passage as guaranteed under international law, remains essential to regional and global security. The ministers rejected any tolls, fees, or attempts to assert control over the strait.."But as mentioned before, toll-free or not, that isn't quite the main issue. It's more on the unrestricted access and navigation along the waterway. And that doesn't seem to be happening.Yes, the numbers are picking up in terms of the number of vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. However, it is clear that Iran continues to maintain strict control over any traffic and movement. And by the look of things, they will certainly not want to relinquish that control whatsoever.From earlier: There's still mud in the waters on how things are playing out with the Strait of Hormuz This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.