Forex News

September GfK consumer sentiment -26.6 vs -29.6 expectedPrior -29.6; revised to -29.4German consumer sentiment looks set to improve further going into September, with this being the highest reading since February (ahead of March). The good news is that income expectations have now turned positive again while economic expectations also continue to show much improvement.Here's the more detailed breakdown:Economic expectations -3.9 vs -6.3 priorIncome expectaitons 1.7 vs -14.5 priorWillingness to buy -9.8 vs -9.9 priorWillingness to save 15.5 vs 17.0 priorNIM notes that: "Although the economic outlook in late summer is still more than six points below the corresponding level of the previous year, the fourth consecutive increase indicates a slight upward trend." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

ING says Canadian dollar has further to fall on tariff chaosRecap: BOJ's Himino calls for 'timely' rate hikes to curb inflationChina industrial profit growth slumps to 7-month low of 11.2%BOJ's Himino signals more hikes, flags growing upside inflation riskAustralian household spending surges, builds case for RBA hikeOil - the report of an oil tanker attack in Hormuz says it occurred August 25Bank of Korea (BOK) delivers second straight rate hike, lifts benchmark to 3.00%BOJ hawk Himino speaks soon ahead of key September meetingPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7840 (vs. estimate at 6.7261)Kansas City Fed hawk Schmid set for high profile Fox Business interviewBank consensus builds for near term RBA hike as economists cite sticky inflationThere is a cascade of analysts forecasting a near term RBA rate hike. Westpac says No.UBS backs de-dollarization trend, lifts gold target to $5,400 an ounceNvidia's stock does the limbo then the moonwalk on 2028 guidancePreview: Warsh's silence on rates leaves Fed and markets guessing before Jackson HoleUBS says tech pullback has opened up attractive entry pointsinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap 26 Aug The USD is mostly higher with higher yields the catalystNvidia earnings results: Revenue and EPS moderately beat but shares fallOil catch up: Russia-Ukraine war keeps a floor under oil despite Hormuz optimismUS stock markets close near flat ahead of Nvidia earningsSummary:UKMTO said Iran struck a Kuwaiti oil tanker on 25 August in the Strait of Hormuz's US-backed southern corridor while the vessel was transiting under US escort; the rest of the Middle East news flow was quiet and oil traded subduedGold rose back to $4640 before stalling, still supported by dollar depreciation concerns and worries over rising US debtAustralian household spending rose 1.1% m/m in July, nearly triple the 0.4% forecast, with annual growth up to 7.0% from 6.1%, adding to the RBA hike case built by Wednesday's hot CPI print; AUD stayed underpinned by rate hike expectationsChina's industrial profit growth slowed to an 11.2% annual pace in July, a seven-month low, with January-July profit growth easing to 17.6% from 18.7% in the first half, as the AI-driven turnaround from years of declines loses some momentumBOJ Deputy Governor Himino called for timely rate hikes to avoid a future inflation spike and flagged a weak yen as an inflation accelerant, though the yen softened anyway, with USD/JPY back to 159.40Bank of Korea delivered a second straight hike, lifting its policy rate to 3.00% from 2.75%PBOC resumed net injections via overnight reverse repos as cash demand picked up ahead of month endNvidia beat on revenue and EPS for fiscal Q2 2027, but shares slipped as much as 3% in after-hours trading before jumping higher when CFO Colette Kress guided fiscal 2028 revenue growth to around 70%, well above the roughly 44% analysts had expected, and CEO Jensen Huang said underlying demand growth is running closer to 100%, with guidance capped by supply rather than demand; Nvidia separately agreed to buy Hugging Face for $12.9bnMarkets in Asia traded quietly, citing a wait-and-see approach to Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on Friday, even though the symposium itself opens Thursday evening US timeAsian markets traded cautiously on Thursday, with much of the region's price action muted as traders adopted a wait and see approach ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, even though the symposium itself opens Thursday evening US time and Warsh is not due to speak until Friday morning.The one notable flashpoint came in the Middle East, where the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency said Iran struck a Kuwaiti oil tanker on 25 August in the Strait of Hormuz's US-backed southern corridor, while the vessel was transiting under US escort. Beyond that incident, Middle East news flow was otherwise quiet and oil prices traded in a subdued fashion. Gold pushed back up toward $4640 before stalling, with dollar depreciation concerns and worries over rising US debt levels cited as the factors still underpinning the metal.Australian data added to the hawkish narrative building around the Reserve Bank of Australia. Household spending rose 1.1% month on month in July, nearly triple the 0.4% pace forecast, with annual growth accelerating to 7.0% from 6.1%. The beat builds further on the case for an RBA hike established by Wednesday's stronger than expected CPI print, and the Australian dollar remained underpinned by growing rate hike expectations.China's industrial sector offered a more mixed signal. Profit growth slowed to an 11.2% annual pace in July, a seven month low, according to National Bureau of Statistics data, with the January to July run rate easing to 17.6% from 18.7% in the first half. The figures suggest the AI-driven turnaround that had been lifting industrial profits from years of declines is starting to lose momentum. Separately, the People's Bank of China resumed net injections through overnight reverse repos on Thursday, as cash demand picked up ahead of month end.Central bank commentary out of Asia leaned hawkish elsewhere too. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino called for timely rate hikes to avoid a future spike in inflation that could force more abrupt tightening later, and flagged a weak yen as a factor that could push up inflation at a faster pace than in the past. Despite the hawkish tone, the yen softened regardless, with USD/JPY back at 159.40. The Bank of Korea delivered a second consecutive rate hike, lifting its policy rate to 3.00% from 2.75%.In earnings, Nvidia posted better than expected second quarter fiscal 2027 results after Wednesday's close, though shares slipped as much as 3% in after-hours trading against high investor expectations. The share price bounced back strongly though with Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress telling analysts the company now expects fiscal 2028 revenue growth of around 70%, well above the roughly 44% analysts had previously forecast, saying demand is still accelerating even at Nvidia's current scale and that customer forecasts point to growth roughly doubling next year, with the 70% figure reflecting supply constraints rather than a ceiling on demand. Chief Executive Jensen Huang said Nvidia has never before given guidance this far in advance, and that underlying demand growth is actually running closer to 100%, with the official outlook capped by current supply capacity rather than by demand itself. Nvidia separately agreed to buy open source model repository Hugging Face for $12.9 billion, according to The Information. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The slowdown to an 11.2% annual pace, well below the 18.7% clip logged in the first half, will raise questions over whether the AI-driven turnaround in Chinese industrial profitability is starting to fade rather than merely normalizing off a strong base. Traders positioned for continued strength in China-exposed cyclicals and commodity demand may reassess given the clear deceleration trend across both the July print and the seven-month cumulative figure. The data adds to a broader mosaic of Chinese economic indicators markets are using to gauge the durability of the recovery from the 2021 to 2024 profit downturn, particularly given how central the AI and electronics manufacturing boost has been to this year's rebound. A continuation of this slowing trend in coming months would likely weigh on sentiment toward China-linked industrial and materials names.---Earlier:PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7840 (vs. estimate at 6.7261)-- China's industrial profit recovery is losing steam, with July growth cooling to its slowest pace this year.Summary:China's industrial profits rose 11.2% year on year in July, the weakest monthly pace so far this year, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released Thursday.The survey covers firms with core-business annual revenue above 20 million yuan, roughly $2.9 million.Profits for the first seven months of the year climbed 17.6% year on year, down from the 18.7% pace recorded in the first half.Industrial profitability has swung sharply higher this year after years of declines since 2021 and only marginal growth last year.The recovery has been driven largely by a global AI boom lifting demand for computing and electronics manufacturing equipment. China's industrial profit growth slowed sharply in July, expanding 11.2% from a year earlier and marking the weakest monthly pace so far this year, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released Thursday.The survey, which covers industrial firms with core business annual revenue above 20 million yuan, or roughly 2.9 million dollars, showed cumulative profits for the first seven months of the year up 17.6% from a year earlier. That figure represents a clear loss of momentum from the 18.7% growth rate recorded over the first half, suggesting the pace of improvement in Chinese industrial earnings has begun to cool even as the headline numbers remain firmly positive.The slowdown comes after a notable turnaround in industrial corporate profitability this year. Profits had declined in each year since 2021 before eking out only barely positive growth last year, making this year's shift to double digit gains a significant improvement. That recovery has been driven in large part by a global artificial intelligence boom, which has fueled strong demand for computing hardware and electronics manufacturing equipment, sectors where Chinese producers have captured a meaningful share of the buildout.Whether the July slowdown represents the start of a more durable deceleration or simply a normalization after an unusually strong first half will be a key question for markets tracking China's industrial recovery in the months ahead. The AI-driven demand that underpinned much of this year's profit rebound remains a global phenomenon rather than a China-specific one, and any broader cooling in AI-related capital spending, whether in China or among its trading partners, would likely show up first in exactly the kind of industrial profit data released Thursday. For now, the seven-month figure still points to a meaningfully improved profit environment relative to the past several years, even as the trend within that recovery appears to be flattening. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US stock markets close near flat ahead of Nvidia earningsBill Gates undermines everything the AI leaders have been sayingCrude oil futures settle little changed at $82.23The $4 trillion question: Can the hyperscalers' enormous bet on data centers pay offUS treasury sells $70 billion of 5 year notes at a high yield of 4.393%Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean +2.2% versus 1.5% last monthMajor European indices closed mostly higher with the UK FTSE 100 the exceptionPutin said to plan Ukraine escalation after seeing talks as fruitlessEIA weekly US crude oil inventories +95K vs +597K expectedThe Canadian consumer isn't cracking yet, but the momentum is fadingUS July durable goods orders +1.1% vs +0.5% expectedUS GDP 2nd estimate for Q2 1.5% vs 1.5% preliminary.US July core PCE 3.3% y/y vs 3.3% expectedKickstart the trading day with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD: Bias, Risk and TargetsinvestingLive European news wrap: Markets await further US-Iran news, Jackson Hole eventThe USD moved mostly higher in trading today, supported in part by rising Treasury yields. The Australian dollar was the lone currency to gain ground against the greenback, rising 0.18%. The NZD, CHF and GBP were the weakest performers.Fundamentally, the U.S. data showed steady growth but persistent inflation. July core PCE matched expectations at 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, while headline inflation was slightly hotter than forecast. Personal income and spending also beat expectations, although real spending was unchanged.Second-quarter GDP was unrevised at 1.5%, with consumer spending revised higher to 3.4%, but inflation measures were revised upward. Durable goods orders rose a stronger-than-expected 1.1%, though the underlying business-investment components were softer. Overall, the data reinforced the Fed’s challenge of balancing modest growth against stubborn inflation.The changes of the majors currencies versus the USD shows: EUR: -0.19% JPY: -0.10% GBP: -0.42% CHF: -0.47% CAD: -0.30% AUD: +0.18% NZD: -0.55% In the US debt market, yields moved mostly higher, with the largest increase coming in the five-year sector: 2-year yield: 4.211%, +0.7 basis points 5-year yield: 4.367%, +1.8 basis points 10-year yield: 4.649%, +1.0 basis point 30-year yield: 5.170%, -0.4 basis points The Treasury sold $70 billion of five-year notes at a high yield of 4.393%, just above the 4.391% when-issued level for a modest 0.2-basis-point tail. Despite the small tail, the auction was above average overall.Domestic demand was especially strong, with direct bidders taking 28.4% versus the 21.2% average. Indirect bidders—including international buyers—took a below-average 61.5%, while dealers were left with only 10.05%, below the 13.4% average. The auction received a grade of B.Crude oil futures settled at $82.23, down $0.13, or 0.16%. The modest change masked a volatile session in which the price traded as high as $83.31 and as low as $79.62.Technically, crude remains between resistance from the 200- and 100-hour moving averages at $84.05 and $84.38, respectively, and support from a rising trendline near $79.32. Sellers remain more in control below the moving averages, but a break of either technical extreme should help determine the next directional move.Middle East developments remain the primary fundamental driver. Reports of progress between Iran and Oman toward restoring more commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have removed some of the geopolitical risk premium. However, there is still no comprehensive US-Iran peace agreement, leaving crude vulnerable to the next diplomatic or security headline.Gold moved sharply lower as the stronger dollar and mostly higher Treasury yields weighed on the precious metal. Gold fell $67.01, or 1.44%, to $4,590.76. The decline comes after an extended run from around $4,000 on July 16 to approximately $4,697 yesterday. Some profit-taking after that advance also contributed to today’s rotation lower.Bitcoin was also lower, falling 0.18% to $78,392.US stocks closed modestly lower, although the Nasdaq 100 managed to buck the broader trend and finish in positive territory: Dow industrial average: -113.01 points, or -0.21%, at 53,469.36 S&P 500: -1.56 points, or -0.02%, at 7,675.71 Nasdaq Composite: -21.10 points, or about -0.08%, at 26,130.20 Russell 2000: -4.12 points, or -0.14%, at 3,005.90 Nasdaq 100: +15.29 points, or +0.05%, at 29,224.52 Overall, it was a modest risk-off session: the dollar strengthened against most major currencies, gold moved sharply lower, crude finished little changed after a volatile day, and the broader US equity indices edged lower. The Nasdaq 100 was the exception, squeezing out a small gain.---------------------------------------------In honor of Dolly Parton, who died yesterday at the age of 80, I want to thank her for all she gave to the world—not only through her music, but through her generosity, kindness and the example she set for so many.  I especially admired how Dolly remained true to herself and to the faith that guided her throughout her life.Melissa Etheridge shared a wonderful story last night about performing her song “Bring Me Some Water” with Dolly. Before they sang, Dolly quietly approached her with a small request. The original lyric repeatedly referred to the “sweet devil,” but Dolly said she could hear her mother’s voice telling her not to sing it that way. She asked to change the line to:“Tonight the old devil, the old devil’s got my soul.”Melissa told her, “Dolly, you sing whatever you want.”It is a small anecdote, but it says so much about who Dolly was. She understood the sinfulness and struggles shared by all of us—but by God, she was not going to call the devil “sweet” or give him any praise.Dolly wanted to be remembered for how she lived and for the difference she made—not for the fame, fortune, power or politics.She certainly made that difference.Rest in peace, Dolly, and thank you for the music, the laughter, the generosity and the faithful example of a life well lived. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

I popped up a preview of the BoK earlier this week:Bank of Korea rate call a coin toss as economists split on August hikeFrom the RBA we get the 'Bulletin'. The RBA Bulletin is the Reserve Bank's quarterly publication analysing economic and financial developments, alongside pieces on the RBA's own history and operations. It's a companion to the Statement on Monetary Policy, which is the quarterly assessment underpinning rate decisions. Long-running (dating to 1937), it's more explainer/research than market-moving. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

High yield 4.393% WI level at the time of the auction 4.391%. Tail +0.2 basis pointsBid to cover 2.37X versus 2.32XDirects 28.4% vs average of 21.2%.Indirects 61.5% versus average of 65.4%Dealers 10.05% versus average of 13.4%The domestic buyers were the stronger today it ain't 428.4% of the issue. The international buyers were less than the average at 61.5%. The bid to cover was modestly higher than the average. The tail although positive was better than the average of 0.7 basis points.Auction Grade: B This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Dallas Fed trimmed mean PCE came in at 2.2% versus 1.5% last month. That compares favorably to the July core PCE your and your at 3.3%, and the headline PCE year on year at 3.7%. However, the rise from 1.5% last month and moving back above the 2.0% level is going the wrong way.What is the difference between the Trimmed Mean PCE and headline PCE seen earlier?The Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate is an alternative measure of inflation designed to filter out the "noise" from unusually large price moves and provide a better picture of the underlying inflation trend.Here's how it works:Starts with the same data as the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.Instead of removing fixed categories (like food and energy in Core PCE), it removes the most extreme price increases and decreases each month, regardless of what category they come from.After trimming those outliers, it calculates the inflation rate from the remaining components.Why is it useful?Inflation data can be distorted by one-off events:Airline fares surge.Gasoline prices collapse.Egg prices spike due to supply issues.Hotel rates jump because of a special event.Those moves can temporarily skew headline inflation. The Dallas Fed's trimmed mean attempts to answer:"What is inflation doing beneath all the temporary volatility?"So how is it different?This means:If gasoline prices are stable, they remain in the calculation.If medical services suddenly jump 10% in a month, they could be trimmed out.The categories trimmed change every month.Why might the Fed watch it?Many economists believe it is one of the best measures of persistent inflation because it:Reduces monthly volatility.Is less affected by temporary supply shocks.Historically has been a good predictor of future headline inflation.For traders and investors:Headline PCE tells you what consumers are experiencing.Core PCE removes food and energy, but can still be influenced by other volatile categories.Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE often provides the clearest view of underlying inflation momentum and is closely watched by many Fed officials when assessing whether inflation pressures are becoming persistent.What % of the low and high does the Trimmed mean trim away?The Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE removes:24% of the expenditure weight from the lowest price changes 31% from the highest price changes In total, it cuts out 55% of the weighted PCE components, leaving the middle 45% to calculate inflation.The trimming is based on expenditure weights—not simply 55% of the individual categories. Dallas Fed methodologyThere are a total of 176 line items in the PCE report.  Chopping 24% of the lowest price changes gets rid of 56 of the components. The biggest decliners were:Chopping 31% of the largest gainers chopped 67 of the components from the calculation.  The biggest gainers chopped from the list this month were: Overall breadthPrices falling: 61 categories, or 33.7%Prices unchanged: 3 categories, or 1.7%Prices rising: 117 categories, or 64.6%Rising at least 5%: 57 categories, or 31.5%Falling at least 5%: 36 categories, or 19.9%The results show considerably broader price increases than declines. Nearly two-thirds of the categories increased, while roughly one-third declined. Moreover, 57 categories posted increases of at least 5%, compared with 36 categories recording declines of at least 5%.The largest declines were concentrated in cookware, hotels, gasoline, vehicle rentals, fresh vegetables and transportation services. The sharpest increases were found in digital video products, lubricants, household and furniture repairs, recreational books, watches and computer equipment.One important qualification: figures as large as +131.4% or −34.5% strongly suggest these are one-month changes expressed at an annualized rate, rather than literal month-over-month price moves. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The CIA visit to Moscow yesterday led to some optimism about a thawing or potential deal. Instead, we're getting a further cycle of escalation that follows rumors of 300,000 more Russians set to be drafted.In any case, oil is higher on this report and it's hard to see this war ever ending.The Bloomberg report says: Russia is preparing to escalate attacks on Ukraine after concluding that negotiations for a peace deal have reached a dead end, according to three people close to the Kremlin. For now, Russia is weighing an intensification of powerful conventional ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv, including the center of the capital, and infrastructure targets in other Ukrainian cities, the people said.This is obviously being leaked to put pressure on for concessions but the report says that negotiating frameworks have collapsed. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Meta is truly a vilanous company.Just this month, CEO Mark Zuckerberg was writing about all the jobs AI would create. Meanwhile, we learned in a Reuters report today that he was contemplating eliminating 60% of Meta's workforce this year.In any case, he will need the savings as Meta will pay $16.7 billion to 29 states as part of an agreement today, just before jury selection was set to begin in the trial. The accusation was that the company designed Instagram and Facebook to addict children, misled consumers about their safety, and improperly collected personal data of kids.What's bizarre to me is that his will function as a tax on a US company and some states will benefit but Meta did the same thing globally and if any country attemps a digital services tax or regulation, Trump launches a trade war.In any case, this is investinglive, not moralitylive. The shares are up 4.5% pre-market. The history of the internet is that a bunch of ideas have ultimately converged on one killer-app: advertising. Google, Meta and (to a large extent) Amazon make their money in advertising and there's a good chance that the money in AI will be made that way as well. People think that ads "don't work" on them but they do and with AI, they will work better than ever before. Meta's path to victory is to subsidize AI models but use the data to advertize to you. They have the reach, all they need is the model and they have a CEO who is willing to do things like target children and pay the fine if necessary.So the question is: Do you want to be the morality police or do you want to make money? This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +0.5%Ex transport +0.4% vs +0.8% expEx defense +1.3% vs +0.3% priorNon-defense capital goods ex air +0.2% vs +0.9% expThis is a softer report overall but the US dollar has been strengthening on the slightly-hotter PCE report released at the same time. The euro was last down 21 pips on the day to 1.1653. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

GDP 1st estimate 1.6% (they were expecting 2.1% before the 1st release). GDP 2nd revision 1.5% vs 1.5% estimateConsumer Spending 3.4% vs 3.2% preliminary estimateGDP Deflator 6.4% vs 6.2% estimateCore PCE YoY 3.6% vs 3.4% estimatePCE Prices YoY 5.3% vs 5.1% estimatePCE ex food energy and housing Q2 3.4% vs 3.2% preliminaryPCE Services ex energy and housing Q2 3.7% vs 3.4% preliminaryOther details:GDP slowed in Q2: The deceleration reflected lower government spending, slower investment and export growth, and a larger increase in imports. Stronger consumer spending provided a partial offset. Underlying domestic demand remained solid: Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 4.2%, revised up from 3.9%. Inflation was revised higher: The gross domestic purchases price index increased 5.8%, while headline PCE rose 5.3% and core PCE increased 3.6%. Income growth strengthened: Real GDI rose 2.2%, up from 1.2% in Q1. The average of real GDP and GDI increased 1.8%, compared with 1.7% previously. Corporate profits surged: Profits from current production increased by $400.9 billion, sharply higher than the $74.4 billion increase in Q1. Overall, the report shows slower headline GDP growth but stronger consumer demand, income growth and corporate profits. The less favorable side of the report was the renewed inflation pressure and the drag from government spending and net trade.A closer look at the contributing pieces to the GDP of 1.5%:Consumer 2.31%Investment 0.48%Government -0.16%Net trade -1.14% with exports adding 0.50% and imports subtracting -1.64%Below is an infograph of the data and the breakdownUS stocks are little changed with the Dow up 10 points, the S&P is down -20 points, and the Nasdaq is down -109 points.NOTES on Inflation measures and implications:GDP deflator: The broadest measure. It tracks prices for all goods and services produced domestically—including consumer purchases, business investment, government spending and exports. It excludes imports because they are produced outside the United States. Headline PCE: Measures prices paid for goods and services purchased by consumers. It includes food and energy, which can make it more volatile. The Federal Reserve’s long-term 2% inflation goal is defined using headline PCE inflation. Core PCE: The same consumer-price measure but excludes food and energy. Because those prices can swing sharply, core PCE is generally viewed as a better indicator of the underlying inflation trend. The important distinction is that the GDP deflator measures price changes across the entire domestic economy, while PCE focuses only on consumer spending. Core PCE then strips out food and energy to provide a smoother view of underlying consumer inflation.In this report, the 6.4% GDP deflator points to broad price pressure across domestic production. The 5.3% headline PCE reading shows the inflation consumers experienced overall, while 3.6% core PCE suggests underlying consumer inflation remained elevated even after excluding food and energy. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

GDP 1st estimate 1.6% (they were expecting 2.1% before the 1st release). GDP 2nd revision x.x% vs 1.5% estimateConsumer Spending x.x% vs 3.2% preliminary estimateGDP Deflator x.x% vs 6.2% estimateCore PCE YoY x.x% vs 3.4% estimatePCE Prices YoY x.x% vs 5.1% estimatePCE ex food energy and housing Q2 x.x% vs 3.2% preliminaryPCE Services ex energy and housing Q2 x.x% vs 3.4% preliminary This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

UK retail sector remains under pressure as CBI survey shows sharp sales declineOil prices sink as expectations for an imminent US-Iran deal increase. What's next?Nasdaq Analysis: Two Critical Levels to Watch Around Nvidia EarningsSwitzerland August UBS investor sentiment +12.1 vs +10.0 priorNvidia Earnings Tonight: NVDA Levels and Trade PlanECB's Schnabel says the central bank must act early to prevent second-round effectsFX option expiries for 26 August 10am New York cutWhat are the main events for today?It's been a pretty boring session with limited economic data and news releases. On the data side, the Swiss investor sentiment improved further in August, with the UBS Investor Sentiment Index rising to +12.1 from +10.0 in July, marking the second consecutive month in positive territory and the strongest reading since early 2025. The data points to growing optimism about Switzerland's economic outlook.The UK CBI survey showed UK retail conditions deteriorated sharply in August, with the retail sales balance falling to -48% from -26%. Retailers reported weak demand, worsening sentiment, and continued cuts to investment and staffing plans. While sales are expected to remain weak in September, the pace of decline is forecast to slow. Retail price inflation is also expected to accelerate. The CBI called for business rates reform and lower employer taxes to help restore confidence in the sector.We also got some comments from ECB's Schnabel where she warned that the central bank must act early to prevent inflation from feeding into wages and broader prices, as inflation is likely to stay above the 2% target for an extended period. She noted that the Eurozone economy is gaining momentum and further tightening will remain data-dependent. Schnabel also sounded worried about the natural gas situation as a key risk that could reignite inflationary pressures.In the markets, it's been just a slow, rangebound price action throughout the entire session as traders await further US-Iran developments ahead of the Jackson Hole event. In the American session, we have the US PCE price index and the second estimate of the US Q2 GDP. There's always some anticipation for the PCE data, but it's rarely a notable market-mover. That's because the data is known well in advance, as it can be calculated from the US CPI and PPI data. Anyway, the Core PCE Y/Y is expected at 3.3% vs 3.3% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.2% vs 0.1% prior.The market is currently pricing in 65% chance of no change in interest rates at the September FOMC meeting. The pricing will be influenced by potential US-Iran deal, Jackson Hole event and the next CPI report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Full report hereThe UK retail sector faced worsening trading conditions in August, according to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey, as sales volumes fell at their fastest pace in over a year and business sentiment deteriorated further.The CBI's retail sales balance dropped to -48% in August, down sharply from -26% in July. Although sales are still expected to decline in September, firms anticipate the pace of contraction will moderate, with the balance forecast to improve to -22%.Retailers also reported that sales were well below normal seasonal levels, with the balance deteriorating to -26% from -18% in July. Expectations for September remain subdued, with sales projected to continue undershooting seasonal norms.The prolonged period of weak consumer demand weighed heavily on confidence across the sector. Retail sentiment fell at a faster pace in August. Despite the difficult environment, there were tentative signs that investment intentions may be stabilising. Retailers still expect to reduce capital expenditure over the next 12 months, but the planned cutbacks are the smallest since early 2024. Employment also remained under pressure, with retail headcount declining in August, although at a slower pace than earlier in the year.Retail selling prices increased at a faster rate than in the previous quarter and firms expect inflation in retail prices to accelerate significantly in the months ahead. Commenting on the survey, CBI Lead Economist said “Retail firms grew more downbeat in August as they grappled with sharply falling sales volumes. These weak trading conditions, which were echoed across the broader distribution sector, continued to weigh on retailers’ investment and hiring plans.“With parliament returning next week, thoughts will start turning to the Autumn Budget and the steps that the Government can take to restore confidence across retail and the broader distribution sector.“Meaningful business rates reform is long overdue, with firms desperate for a fairer system thatrewards, rather than penalises, investment and growth. The Government should also look to cut Employer NICs to support hiring and ensure the sector can continue to provide job opportunities, particularly for young people.” This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior was +10.0Swiss investor confidence strengthened again in August, with the UBS Investor Sentiment Index rising to +12.1 from +10.0 in July, signalling growing optimism about the outlook for the Swiss economy and financial markets. This marks the second consecutive month in positive territory following a sharp recovery from June's negative reading.Investors have turned more positive on Switzerland's economic prospects despite the US-Iran war and elevated oil prices. Nevertheless, the data won't change anything for the SNB, as the central bank is expected to keep monetary policy unchanged at least until the second half of 2027. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.