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US June import prices +0.3% vs -0.7% expectedUS housing starts for June 1.427 million versus 1.310 million estimate.US June industrial production +0.1% vs +0.2% expectedWhy Kimi K3 is adding to the market worriesUS July prelim UMich consumer sentiment 54.4 vs 51.0 expectedMeta weighs multibillion-dollar AI infrastructure deal with AnthropicBaker Hughes oil rig count up 7 to 452Iran targeted a ship trying to pass through Hormuz - TasnimTrump says he will add to Canadian tariffs due to wildfire smoke as two Minnesota fires cross into CanadaMarkets:Nasdaq down 1.3%WTI crude oil up $2.94 to $81.89US 10-year yields down 2 bps to 4.55%Gold up $42 to $4011CAD leads, GBP lagsS&P 500 down 0.9%The starting point for the market on Friday was worries about Kimi K3, which is an open source model from Moonshot that's hitting benchmarks close to the latest models from Anthropic and OpenAI. That led to some angst that the model layer has no moat and a broader chip selloff on fears that new models could render spending on training to be uneconomical. With that, chip names opened lower and the Nasdaq struggled.Notably though, many chip names reversed shortly after the open and Micron ranged from $804 to $903 before closing at $847, down 0.7%. Nvidia was a loser down 2.3% as many of its chips are used for training rather than inference. All the Mag7 names save for Apple (which was flat) were lower.In single-stock news, Netflix fell 7% on earnings and Intuitive Surgical plunged 14%.Later, rising oil prices hurt the market. There were no signs of de-escalation into the weekend and both sides traded escalatory threats as strikes continued into the close. Oil finished at a one-month high and crack spreads continue to blow out.Gold made something of a comeback as Goldman Sachs reported on central bank buying. It was notably lower earlier before finishing $50 above the bottom.Late in the day, Trump threatened Canada with tarifs over wildfires but the market surmized he was blowing smoke and the loonie was the top performer.On the week:S&P 500 down 1.55%Nasdaq -2.9%DJIA -0.9% This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump now says he is going to war against smoke from Canada:We are holding Canada responsible for the fact that they are not properly maintaining their Forests, and Brush therein, and the United States is being unnecessarily invaded by filthy, polluted, and unhealthy air, the quality of which is dangerous, and totally unacceptable! I will call the Prime Minister during the day to find out what they are going to do about it. The cost is incalculable! Canada has refused to engage in basic Forest Management and Debris Removal, knowing that such refusal will lead to exactly this result. This is Willful Negligence, and becoming a yearly occurrence, costing the United States Billions of Dollars, which cost of this pollution must of necessity be added to the TARIFFS Canada is currently paying. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMPAs a former wildland forest fire fighter myself, who also was deployed to help the United States battle fires, this is quite a week for stupidity.The north of Canada is almost completely uninhabited and there are no roads. The size of it is beyond comprehension and it's nearly completely covered in boreal forest, which means it's coniferous and that's a type of tree that easily burns when it's dry.There is no amout of 'forest management' that anyone can do to prevent fires and once they're up and burning, Incredibly, two fires in Minnesota today crossed into Canada today. The Bear Trap Fire in the BWCA now 34,422 acres, crossing into Ontario. The other fire that crossed into Canada is the Thumb Fire, now 15,300+ acres. Here is a look at one of them.If Trump has a solution for stopping forest fires, perhaps he should start in Minnesota?In terms of markets, the Canadian dollar is unmoved on this because, naturally, it's all hot air. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The escalation is showing no signs of stopping in the Middle East. There were reports that Iran targeted Kuwait yesterday and hit a desalization plant and now Iran's semi-official Tasnim says that the Revolutionary Guard targeted a ship that ignored warning and tried to pass through Hormuz.Oil is having another big day with WTI up $3.53 to $82.48.I'm hanging onto reports that Israel possibly leading Lebanon could set the stage for a deal but there's also a report that the US is preparing to fly more refuelling planes to Israel in order to escalation.Aside from oil, perhaps the bigger story is the crack spread was the 3-2-1 crack is now above $70 per barrel, the highest in history. That means that even with oil prices at $80, the price of fuel is likely to be as high -- or higher -- than at the peak of the war. That means the deflation from the May-July drop in crude prices will never reach companies or consumers but instead will be entirely captured by refineries. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The weekly Baker Hughes oil rig count showed a gain of 7 to 452. The Gas rigs were unchanged at 126 and Total rigs rose by 7 to 588.Versus a year ago, oil rigs are up from 422 while gas rates are up from 117. The price of crude oil today is up by $2.36 at $81.30. The high prices today reached $81.54. The low price was at $77.93. The recent push to the upside has taken the price back above its high price from earlier this week at $81.25. The next target comes at $82.01 (see post here) This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Trump administration notified Israel it is sending dozens more refueling planes to the country ahead of a potential expansion of military operations against Iran, according to Axios.The report says Trump is considering a massive offensive in Iran. It says that among the options being considered are bombing Iranian infrastructure facilities like power plants, conducting more attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities.It says Trump hasn't made a decision yet but it could come in the "coming days".Oil is higher as this circulates but I have to wonder why this was leaked deliberately. Perhaps it's to put pressure on Iran to go back to the negotiating table.The report says that the US wants to bring the number of refuelling planes to the same level it had at the beginning of the war. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 48.9Conditions 54.9 vs 48.7 expectedPrior was 48.4Expectations 54.20 vs 51.7 expectedPrior expectations 49.3One-year inflation 4.2% vs 4.6% priorFive-year inflation 3.3% vs 3.3% priorThis indicator has been completely taken over by politics and has little value in predicting spending. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +0.1%Capacity utilization 76.1% vs 76.2% expectedManufacturing output 0.0% vs +0.1% expectedPrior output 0.0% (revised to +0.1%) This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior month housing starts 1.177 million revised to 1.199 million. Prior month building permits 1.410 million.Housing starts for the month of June 1.427 million versus 1.310 million estimateHousing starts percentage change +19.0% versus -15.2% last monthBuilding permits for the month of June 1.367 million versus 1.400 million estimateBuilding permits percentage change -3.0% versus -0.9% last monthDetails of Housing Completions:Housing completions (June): 1.392 million annualized, +3.3% vs. revised May (1.347 million). Completions were +1.5% compared with June 2025 (1.372 million). Single-family completions: 964,000 annualized, +6.6% from the revised May pace of 904,000. Completions of buildings with five units or more: 413,000 annualized. Overall, June completions improved on both a monthly and yearly basis, led by a solid increase in single-family homes.Full report CLICK HERE.Housing remains a dilemma for the Fed.  The affordability is too high.  For homeowners who refinanced during the Covid crisis at rates near 2%,  people do not want to sell. and give up the near free money. Also, the supply remains too low. The increase in housing starts is a positive but looking at the chart, the housing start remain in the range.  Another factor weighing on housing inventory in some regions is the large unrealized capital gains many baby boomers have accumulated in their homes. For many, there is a strong financial incentive to remain in their home rather than sell it. Upon death, heirs generally receive a step-up in cost basis to the home's fair market value at the date of death, allowing them to avoid capital gains taxes on decades of appreciation if they choose to sell.For someone who purchased a "forever home" in 1985 and has accumulated roughly $1 million in appreciation, the tax savings can be substantial compared with selling during their lifetime. In addition, selling a home with a large taxable capital gain can increase modified adjusted gross income (MAGI), potentially triggering higher Medicare IRMAA premiums. Together, these tax considerations may discourage some homeowners from selling, further limiting the supply of existing homes on the market.   So more supply helps, and dying helps (but no one talks about it).  Maybe taking away the step-up in cost basis upon death would encourage more selling.  The government would want people to sell and collect the capital gains tax. FYIYoungest Boomers: 62 years old (born in 1964) Oldest Boomers: 80 years old (born in 1946)Approximate age distribution: 62–65 years old (born 1961–1964): ~20–25% 66–70 years old (born 1956–1960): ~25–30% 71–75 years old (born 1951–1955): ~25–30% 76–80 years old (born 1946–1950): ~20–25% The Baby Boomer generation originally consisted of about 76 million Americans. An estimated 65–70 million Baby Boomers are still living in the U.S. Many Boomers own homes purchased decades ago, often with significant unrealized capital gains. The Average life expectancy (both sexes):79.0 yearsMen:76.5 yearsWomen:81.4 yearsI am sure someone is doing the numbers.   This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior import prices +1.9% (revised to +1.7%)Export prices -0.6% vs -0.4% expectedPrior export prices +1.3% (prior revised to +1.2%)The import number swings the other way from CPI and PPI, perhaps highlighting that inflation pressures aren't going away. At the same time, oil prices are near the highs of the day with brent up @ now to $86.20 and WTI at $81.The year-over-year import price rise of 7.1% was the highest since August 2022. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Tech shares continue to stay under pressure in final stretch of the weekHow have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?IRGC reaffirms that no oil and gas will pass through the Strait of Hormuz so long as US attacks continueBank of Japan to keep interest rates unchanged at July meeting - KyodoEuro area inflation confirmed to have eased slightly in JuneMarkets:S&P 500 futures down 0.8%, Nasdaq futures down 1.5%WTI crude up 2.6% to $81.00CHF leads, AUD and GBP lag on the dayUS 10-year yields down 4.6 bps to 4.525%Gold up 0.6% to $3,992Bitcoin down 1.4% to $63,226It was a more pensive session as traders and investors are keeping their eyes on Wall Street in the final stretch of the week.Tech shares sold off heavily yesterday and that translated to an ugly day for Asian stocks with the Nikkei closing down 4% and KOSPI down by over 6%.In Europe, the losses weren't as bad but only because of the less tech-heavy nature of major indices in the region. As for US futures, the bleeding continues with S&P 500 futures down 0.8% and Nasdaq futures down 1.5%. It's not just AI-related firms and chipmakers today, but also big tech is suffering in pre-market trade. So, the breadth of the selloff seems to be widening.All the while the US-Iran conflict continues to rage on and we're seeing oil prices start to make waves again. WTI crude is up 2.6% to $81.00, looking to shake off the $80 mark through the week.In other markets, the US dollar is keeping more mixed as Treasury yields fall back a little today. EUR/USD is flat at 1.1435, the same for USD/JPY at the 162.30 level. Meanwhile, USD/CHF is down 0.2% to 0.8068 with USD/CAD down 0.1% to 1.4025 on the day. This comes as 10-year Treasury yields are lower by 4 bps to 4.525% currently.The mixture in the market mood is helping to see gold find some reprieve with the precious metal up 0.6% to $3,992. However, silver is down 0.2% to $55.40 in a more mixed picture for precious metals today.All eyes will be on how US stocks perform as we look to close out the week. And it looks like we're going to be in for quite a volatile session before the weekend comes along. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

June final CPI +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y prelimPrior +3.2%June final core CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelimPrior +2.6%No change to the initial estimates as euro area inflation cools a little in June. The monthly estimate for headline inflation even records a negative reading (-0.1%), largely thanks to a drop in energy price inflation (-1.8%).As for the overall breakdown, headline annual inflation also comes in lower amid a further cooling in energy prices. That is seen down to 8.5% in June from 10.8% in May.At the same time though, there is a further drop in food price inflation and also services inflation. The former fell to 1.5% in June from 1.9% in May with the latter falling to 3.2% in June from 3.5% in May. Overall, that contributed to the softer core price estimate.And when putting all of that together, it means that inflation developments are not quite taking a turn for the worse last month. As such, that affords the ECB some added flexibility in waiting out the summer before deciding again on their next course of action on policy setting.The risk now is that renewed tensions in the Middle East conflict will spark another resurgence in oil and gas prices, which will in turn pull up price pressures into the summer. And in the bigger picture, that just increases the risks of potential second round effects down the road.See also GBP/USD technical analysis for beginners from today (including video) This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we just have the final Eurozone CPI report. This is not going to change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted. The focus remains on US-Iran headlines as the current crisis is keeping growth risks skewed to the downside and weighing on risk sentiment. AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we get a few US data releases including Housing Starts/Building Permits, Import/Export prices, Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. The data is unlikely to change anything for the Fed at this point, so the market reaction will likely be muted. The chances for a rate hike in July have fallen to just 10%, so that's not going to happen. The probabilities for September have also dropped below 50% as traders revised their expectations after the soft US inflation data this week. The peak inflation narrative has replaced Fed tightening worries, and the US-Iran crisis is the only thing holding back the mood. CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS10:00 GMT/06:00 ET - ECB's Cipollone (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

No change to government stance that specific monetary policy is left for the BOJ to decide uponGovernment will work to avoid misunderstanding in markets over fiscal, monetary policy stanceKeeping a close eye on daily market moves, economic dataWill strive to stably lower Japan's debt-to-GDP ratioRate moves are determined by marketsThe remarks above aren't anything new as they have been what the government has been preaching all this while. It is just that as rates continue to ramp higher and fiscal worries grow, there is plenty of scrutiny on the directive of monetary policy in trying to match together with the fiscal goals of the Takaichi administration.This has already been the case since Takaichi took over as Japan prime minister since October last year.So, the trials and tribulations just continue to play out with one of the main victims being the Japanese yen currency. The US-Iran conflict has only served to make things tougher, with the BOJ now having to deal with cost-push inflation as part of the picture as well.And that is one of the main reasons why USD/JPY just continues to ramp higher, with the path of least resistance still being for a move up. The only thing standing in the way of a total breakdown in the yen is potential intervention action by Japan's ministry of finance. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Vessel traffic along the Strait of Hormuz has dropped back significantly in the past week or so. And we've only been seeing an average of around 10-15 vessels transit through the strait this week.Yesterday marked the first full day of the re-enforced US blockade and there were zero VLCCs or LNG tankers that transited through the strait.As things stand, any oil tankers that pass through are strictly Iranian exports utilising the northern corridor and a highly restricted flow of regional Arab Gulf oil. Meanwhile, LNG exports have pretty much reached a standstill at this point.Both sides are still continuing to trade strikes and it doesn't seem like we will be reaching any form of truce or an accord any time soon. The IRGC also says that they have launched an attack on the US' command center in Syria's Al-Tanf.In case you missed some of the headlines:US military confirms actions to enforce naval blockade of Iran, ships boarded, ships 'disabled'US bombs Iranian bridges to sixth day of strikes, choke off Bandar Abbas supplyOil edges higher as US-Iran attacks widen to Jordan, Bahrain and KuwaitEven the whole idea of a false and forced narrative with both sides putting on an act has now gone down the drain. The reality of the situation is dire as we circle back to a de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Asian tech stocks slide as AI rally unwinds, oil set for biggest weekly gain since AprilOil steady despite fresh wave of strikes across Gulf, Iraq and IranRupee nears record low as RBI intervenes but oil, risk aversion weighChina's SAFE says FX market stable, resilient amid complex global backdropAsian and US equities slide as Nikkei drops 4.25%, Nasdaq futures down 1%Trump's China election claims risk unsettling trade truce ahead of Xi meetingOil edges higher as US-Iran attacks widen to Jordan, Bahrain and KuwaitTrump blaming China for election breach back in 2020PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7934 (vs. estimate at 6.7734)(Unconfirmed) Reports that Iran has targeted King Fahd Causeway connecting Bahrain to Saudi ArabiaSingapore June exports rise 20.7% but miss forecasts on non-electronics weaknessEquities selling off, Nikkei down 3%. US equities lower alsoBernstein lifts 2026 gold target to $4,533 on central bank buying, muted Fed hikesUS bombs Iranian bridges to sixth day of strikes, choke off Bandar Abbas supplyVice Chair Jefferson says Fed policy well positioned, but hike possible if inflation stays stickyNew Zealand data - June 2026 Food Price Index +0.6% m/m (prior +1.0%)Decades long bull turns bearish. Cites structural deficits, inflation, and AI-driven borrowing in historic bearish pivot.Iran war escalates as US strikes bridges, rail hub; oil edges lower on Globex reopenICYMI - Fed's Logan flags AI-driven inflation risk, sees no wage pressure for nowUS military confirms actions to enforce naval blockade of Iran, ships boarded, ships 'disabled'US attacks on Iran toll on - bridges, railway stations hitGold slides circa 2% as Middle East tensions boost dollar, rate hike bets, Where now for gold?AI and chip stocks continue to slide sending the Nasdaq down near -1.5%Oil dips near one-month high as Iran war escalation threatens both key export routes - the range to watchIn brief:US struck three bridges in Iran's Hormozgan province (Bandar Khamir overpass, Gariveh Bridge, a third structure), a railway station west of Bandar Abbas linking to Shahid Rajaei port, a telecoms tower in Bandar Abbas, and a civilian airport in Iranshahr; WSJ confirmed the campaign is aimed at severing supply routes into the Bandar Abbas naval base.Iran's army said it struck US facilities at Bahrain's Sheikh Isa Air Base with drones, targeting helicopters and P-8 reconnaissance aircraft, describing it as retaliation for US strikes on Iranian urban infrastructure.Bahrain and Kuwait came under attack with sirens activated; explosions reported at the US Navy's Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain; unconfirmed reports of a strike on the King Fahd Causeway; attacks also reported in Doha.A later, separate wave saw Iranian state media report five more bridges struck in southern Iran, followed by a second Bahrain siren alert and fresh attacks into Kuwait and Qatar.Japan's Nikkei sank close to 4.5% on a weak Wall Street lead and broader risk-off tone, extending a tech-led Asian selloff.Fed Vice Chair Jefferson opened the door to a later-year rate hike without endorsing a move this month, saying current policy leaves the Fed "well positioned" while inflation resumes its decline.Trump accused China of illicitly acquiring 220 million US voter files, calling it the largest election-data breach in history, though he stopped short of alleging China meddled in the 2020 vote; AUD/USD and NZD softened on the headlines.The dollar held steady and was set to end the week little changed, with receding Fed hike bets offset by safe-haven demand; the yen languished near a 40-year low around 162.40, prompting fresh jawboning from Japan's Finance Minister Katayama.Markets are watching a potential GPIF-led allocation shift toward domestic Japanese assets, which analysts say could support Japanese equities and pressure JGB yields via investor repatriation.South Korean markets were closed for Constitution Day.The Middle East conflict dominated Friday's session, unfolding in a rapid, multi-stage sequence that kept oil and risk sentiment on edge throughout the day. The first wave saw the US strike three bridges in Iran's Hormozgan province, the Bandar Khamir overpass connecting Bandar Abbas to Lar, the Gariveh Bridge, and a third structure, alongside a railway station west of Bandar Abbas linking to the freight network serving Shahid Rajaei port, a telecommunications tower in Bandar Abbas, and a civilian airport in Iranshahr in the country's southeast. The Wall Street Journal, citing a senior US official, confirmed the campaign was aimed squarely at severing supply routes into Bandar Abbas, the naval base Iran uses to threaten shipping and project power into the Strait of Hormuz.Iran's response came in stages. Its army said it carried out the eleventh phase of what it termed Operation Lightning, striking US facilities at Bahrain's Sheikh Isa Air Base with Arash suicide drones, targeting areas hosting US helicopters and P-8 reconnaissance aircraft, and describing the action as retaliation for US strikes on Iranian urban infrastructure that caused civilian casualties. Bahrain and Kuwait then came under direct attack, with sirens activated and explosions reported at the US Navy's Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain. Unconfirmed reports suggested Iran had also targeted the King Fahd Causeway linking Bahrain to Saudi Arabia, while further attacks were reported in Doha.A later, distinct wave saw Iranian state media report five additional bridges struck in southern Iran in a fresh round of US strikes, before Bahrain's Interior Ministry sounded sirens for a second time on Friday, with that second wave extending into Kuwait and Qatar as well. The rapid succession of strikes and counter-strikes across five countries in a single session underscored how quickly the conflict's geographic footprint has expanded beyond its original Iran-Gulf axis.Away from the Gulf, equity markets extended their tech-led slide. Japan's Nikkei sank close to 4.5% on a weak lead from Wall Street and a broader risk-off tone, part of a wider unwind in AI-linked valuations that has hit chipmakers particularly hard this week. South Korean markets were shut for Constitution Day, leaving Tokyo to absorb much of the regional selling pressure. Taiwan slumped too, though.On monetary policy, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson struck a measured but inflation-focused tone, saying he would be open to a rate hike later this year if inflation fails to cool, while stopping short of endorsing a move at this month's meeting. He said current policy leaves the Fed "well positioned" to respond to incoming data, even as he flagged the risk that a rapid succession of shocks, from tariffs to energy prices to AI-driven demand, could leave inflation expectations unanchored.Politics added another cross-current for markets. President Trump accused China of illicitly acquiring 220 million US voter files, calling it the largest election-data breach in history, though he stopped short of alleging Beijing meddled in the 2020 election outcome itself. The accusations weighed on currencies with high sensitivity to US-China relations, with both the Australian and New Zealand dollars softening on the headlines, even as the broader relationship remains delicately poised ahead of a planned Trump-Xi meeting in September.In currencies more broadly, the dollar held steady and was on track to end the week little changed, as receding expectations for further Fed rate increases this year were offset by renewed safe-haven demand tied to the Middle East escalation. The euro was little changed near 1.1440. The yen remained languishing near a 40-year low around 162.40 per dollar, prompting renewed verbal intervention from Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, that nhad little impact. Market attention has also turned to a potential allocation shift by Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund and other pension funds, following Katayama's comments last week that Tokyo aims to steer state pension assets toward a substantially larger domestic allocation. Analysts said expectations of repatriation flows from Japanese investors could provide periodic support for equities and pressure Japanese government bond yields lower in the period ahead. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.