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This is a rather bold proposal coming from European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, in her her annual state of the European Union address in Strasbourg.She has opened the door for Canada to become the first "associate member" of the EU, backing Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney's pitch for a more "unique security and economic alliance" with Europe."Dear Mark, I said we must urgently reimagine our partnerships so I would like to work with you on opening the door for Canada to being the first associate member of the European Union. In short, we want to bring the relationship with Canada to the highest level possible. This is not a partnership against anyone else, but for our common strength. We share one ocean, one set of values, one way of seeing the world. And we will now build our shared future as well."Carney was of course in the audience for this, and has been coy about the whole situation in the run up to von der Leyen's speech today.Just yesterday, he even said that Canada is not seeking to be an official member of the EU. But with this latest news, it seems that being an "associate member" - whatever that might end up entailing - is very much on the table.For some context, the EU does not have any framework for an "associate membership". That means von der Leyen will have to require unanimous approval from the bloc’s 27 member states in order to push through this proposal.And with that, there are still no details on what being an "associate member" would mean for Canada in this instance. However, it is likely that it could involve a trade or security pact at the very least.There will likely be some pushback from some member states, worried about Canada being given preferential treatment beyond the existing trade and investment partnerships. However, the person most likely to be unhappy over this situation and voice out his immense displeasure will be US president Trump.His trade war with both the EU and Canada is pretty much one of the major reasons pushing both sides together now. Trump called Canada "the worst country to deal with" and one can imagine that he might be readying up more tariffs in response to this special partnership. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, the main highlight was the UK CPI report. The data came mostly in line with expectations, with a slight miss on Services CPI measure. For now, the BoE has enough reasons to keep rates steady and maintain a tightening bias given the soft employment data and limited inflation spillover. The market is pricing in around 80% chance of no change in rates at tomorrow's meeting and a total of 45 bps of tigthening by year-end. The market is still betting on rate hikes due to elevated energy prices. AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we have the US Retail Sales, the BoC meeting minutes and the FOMC rate decision. It goes without saying that the focus is going to be solely on the FOMC decision. The Fed is expected to hike rates by 25 bps, bringing the FFR to 3.75-4.00%. The focus will be mainly on the dot plot where the median projection is expected to show rates peaking 75 bps higher (two rate hikes in 2026 and one in 2027). Warsh is again not expected to offer forward guidance but to repeat his hawkish Jackson Hole message.CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS12:15 GMT/08:15 ET - ECB's Vujcic (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

UK August CPI +3.1% vs +3.1% y/y expectedPrior +2.9%UK August core CPI +2.6% vs +2.6% y/y expectedPrior +2.6%The main readings are all within estimates, with UK headline inflation seen picking up again in August - jumping above 3% for the first time since March.Higher energy prices was the biggest contributor, amid an increase in prices for diesel and petrol. For some context, diesel prices rose by 14.2 pence per litre in August 2026, compared with a rise of 0.8 pence per litre in August 2025.Meanwhile, the average price of petrol rose by 9.1 pence per litre between July and August 2026, compared with a rise of 0.3 pence per litre between July and August 2025. The average price stood at 161.3 pence per litre in August 2026. This is the highest price recorded since November 2022.For the BOE, the more important metric is core annual inflation and this was seen holding steady at 2.6% in August - the same as in July. The reading here is reaffirmed by services inflation also keeping unchanged at 3.4% in August.There was a much smaller upward effect from air fares than anticipated, with that only rising by 6.2% from July to August. Analyst estimates coming into the report varied but most were convinced that the uptick here would be enough to push services inflation to 3.5% in August.Overall, the report is one which is very much in-line with estimates and without a further push up in services inflation, it doesn't change the inflation picture all too much for the BOE ahead of their decision tomorrow.The evidence for meaningful second-round effects remains limited. And that will be the narrative that policymakers can stick with in keeping interest rates unchanged for this week. That being said, it will be a tightly contested call among policymakers - whichever way the vote. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The UK inflation report for August today is going to be the main highlight in terms of economic data releases in the European session later today. With it coming just a day before the BOE rate decision tomorrow, it is the last meaningful piece of the puzzle for policymakers before they cast their votes.To start off, let's see what the numbers have to say.Headline annual inflation is expected to rise to around 3.1% in August, up from 2.9% previously. That is roughly three tenths above the BOE's own forecast.Just on that alone, it sounds rather uncomfortable. However, I wouldn't get too carried away with the headline figure on its own as the devil is always in the details when it comes to inflation data.Much of the jump in headline inflation is expected to come from the surge in petrol and diesel prices, which could account for roughly two tenths of the forecast miss. That matters because policymakers will be much more interested in whether the latest energy shock is spreading to other key categories rather than simply reacting to higher fuel costs themselves.That once again puts the spotlight on core annual inflation. That is expected around 2.6% in August, keeping unchanged from the reading previously.Core goods inflation is expected to be broadly stable, so that will put services inflation firmly in focus.The consensus for the latter is for around 3.5% and that is still well above the BOE's forecast of around 3.26%. That being said, categories like air fares could make the reading particularly noisy. July's air fare increase was unusually soft, so some normalisation in August is expected. Analyst estimates vary enormously, but a rise of around 10% m/m would alone contribute roughly 8 bps to services inflation. So, that is something to take note of.But in other words, a 3.5% services print isn't necessarily as hawkish as it might first appear to be. The details matter.And that will probably be the key distinction for the BOE decision tomorrow. The central bank already knows that inflation is going higher. But what policymakers really need to know, is whether those price pressures are becoming more embedded elsewhere in the economy.So far, the evidence for meaningful second-round effects remains limited.With that in mind, an in-line report should still allow the BOE to get away with keeping the bank rate unchanged at 3.75% tomorrow.A meaningful upside surprise in underlying services inflation (in turn, core annual inflation) could still see markets bring forward expectations for another BOE rate hike. For sterling and gilts, that will be the key spot to watch when it comes to the release later. However, it will take a very sizable surprise to convince of a change for markets to price in a rate hike for this week.The current backdrop shows that traders have already fully priced in a 25 bps rate hike for November next with another in December almost fully priced in as well. The market pricing trajectory through to June next year sees ~103 bps of rate hikes priced in. So, how the curve moves here after today's report will be the more interesting bit. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

OpenAI in talks for funding round above $1.2 trillion valuationEthereum retests broken resistance near $2,470 as exchange supply keeps shrinkingTriple good news for Solana, sell the fact for SOL pricePBOC's Pan signals shift away from China loan growth targets, looks to stabilise debtStaking and ETFs drain ether from exchanges, price impact unprovenAustralia: Westpac leading index signals softer but improving growth as RBA holds firmPBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7628 (vs. estimate at 6.7148)Nikkei edged higher at open, then down. Kospi slips, as region awaits Fed decisionJapan trade deficit widens as machinery orders unexpectedly fallSaudi-led coalition vows action after Houthi drone nears Mecca: "Red Line".3 things UBS's daily note reveals about the market's bigger pictureNikkei, S&P 500 charts cool into range as HSBC stays bullish on US, Japan equitiesHSBC stays bullish on global equities, favours US, Asia and cyclicalsVance says Iran war will shift to new phase within monthOil tanker costs to Asia surge as US-Iran war and supply risks persistWashington seeks cap on foreign parts in AI chips and serversOil: Private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil build vs. draw expectedWall Street closes lower as yields rise and crude oil surgesAI Cybersecurity Stocks: Investing in AI SafetyClarity failure: What the BTC/USD chart is showing, and what to watch nextCrypto bill fails key Senate vote as bitcoin slides on regulatory setbackSummary:Oil held near recent highs, with private API data showing inventory builds across crude, gasoline and distillates ahead of Wednesday's official US government figuresA Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted a Houthi drone before it could enter restricted airspace around Mecca, calling security of the two holy mosques a "red line" and warning of further measures against the groupJapan's machinery orders fell short of forecasts in July while the August trade deficit widened more than expected, adding a cautious note to the growth and capex outlook; the yen briefly weakened before returning to little changed on the sessionMajor FX traded subdued ahead of today's Federal Open Market Committee decision, with a rate hike widely expectedJapanese and South Korean equities traded in narrow, cautious ranges ahead of the FOMC outcomeCrypto markets came under pressure after the US Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act on a cloture vote, leaving crypto oversight to continue under existing SEC and CFTC rulemaking rather than a unified federal framework; bitcoin extended losses on the result, an outcome markets had broadly anticipated Oil prices held near their recent highs on Tuesday, with private survey data from the American Petroleum Institute showing inventory builds across crude, gasoline and distillates ahead of official US government figures due Wednesday morning.In Middle East developments, a Saudi led coalition said it intercepted a Houthi drone before it could breach restricted airspace around Mecca. The coalition described security of the two holy mosques as a "red line" and said it would take the necessary measures against the group in response.On the data front, Japan's machinery orders fell short of forecasts in July, while the country's August trade deficit widened more than expected as import growth continued to outpace exports. The figures added a cautious note to Japan's growth and capital expenditure outlook. The yen lost some ground following the release before recovering to trade little changed on the session.Major currencies traded in a subdued range ahead of today's Federal Open Market Committee decision, with markets widely expecting a rate hike. Japanese and South Korean equities similarly traded in narrow, cautious ranges as investors awaited the outcome.Crypto markets came under pressure following developments out of the United States on Tuesday. The Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act on a cloture vote, denying the crypto industry a unified federal regulatory framework and confirming that oversight will continue through existing SEC and CFTC rulemaking rather than statute. Bitcoin extended its losses on the result, though the outcome had been broadly anticipated by markets ahead of the vote.-- This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The improved but still below-trend reading gives the Reserve Bank some room to hold at its September meeting without abandoning its tightening bias, consistent with Westpac's own call for a very hawkish hold ahead of a further rate rise later this year. For AUD, the report's signal cuts both ways: firmer momentum and a resilient June quarter support the case for additional hikes, typically supportive for the currency on rate differential grounds, while the report's own caution that labour markets, financial markets, commodity prices and consumer sentiment remain soft leaves room for disappointment if the improvement doesn't hold. Rising fuel prices and a housing market downturn are flagged as fresh headwinds to sentiment that could weigh on domestic demand and, by extension, the RBA's confidence to keep tightening. Markets will likely treat the data as a modest positive for the RBA's hawkish stance without materially shifting near term rate expectations, given the central bank is not expected to move again until after the October 28 inflation update.- Westpac's Leading Index shows Australian growth momentum still soft but improving, enough to keep the RBA hawkish without forcing a September hike, with another rate rise expected once October's inflation data confirms the picture.Summary:Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index growth rate rose to -0.09% in August from -0.17% in July, still below the long-run trendMomentum has improved since mid-year but remains softer than the +0.26% average pace recorded through most of 2025The current below-trend run is described as milder than the 2022-2024 cost-of-living period, when the index averaged -0.46% with lows near -1%A ramp-up in data centre investment and firmer dwelling approvals have helped offset drags from labour markets, financial markets, commodity prices and consumer sentimentWestpac has upgraded its year-end annual growth forecast to 1.5%, from a previous 1% forecastWestpac expects the RBA to hold rates at its September 28-29 meeting but hike again after the October 28 quarterly inflation update, calling the September decision a "very hawkish hold"Westpac's Leading Index of Economic Activity showed a further improvement in August, with the six-month annualised growth rate rising to -0.09% from -0.17% in July, according to the bank's economics team. While the reading remains below the long-run trend, it points to momentum stabilising rather than deteriorating further, a signal Westpac says is broadly consistent with the resilience shown in the Australian economy through the June quarter national accounts.The improvement comes against a backdrop in which the Reserve Bank of Australia has already raised interest rates three times this year in its effort to bring inflation back toward the 2 to 3 percent target, with further tightening still expected. Westpac's own economists believe the central bank will hike again before year end, though they think the RBA will hold off at its upcoming September 28-29 meeting until a fuller quarterly inflation update is released on October 28. Westpac describes the likely September outcome as a "very hawkish hold."The Leading Index's growth rate is now roughly back to where it stood six months ago, having eased only slightly from the -0.07% pace recorded in February. That said, the composition of the improvement has shifted meaningfully. Over the past six months, bigger drags have come from labour markets, financial markets, commodity prices and consumer sentiment, which combined have taken 0.42 percentage points off the index's growth rate since February. That weakness has been offset by a more positive signal from dwelling approvals, adding 0.32 percentage points, and a firming in US industrial production, contributing a further 0.08 percentage points.Westpac cautions that this mix raises questions about how durable the recent improvement will prove. Rising fuel prices and concerns about further rate increases appear to be weighing on consumer sentiment once again, while a downturn in established housing markets is also having an effect. Westpac warns these pressures could intensify in the near term and potentially spread to other components of the index.Even so, Westpac has upgraded its year-end annual growth forecast to 1.5%, from a previous estimate of 1%, judging that the economy's relatively resilient performance through the June quarter is likely to extend through the second half of 2026 and into early 2027, notwithstanding the drag from higher interest rates and a global energy shock. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The soft machinery orders print undercuts the case for near term Bank of Japan tightening, as a weaker leading capex signal suggests the investment side of the economy may be losing steam just as the BoJ weighs its next move on policy normalisation.I suspect, along with most everyone else that a rate hike this week is baked in:Preview: Goldman Sachs sees yen and Nikkei risk building on faster BoJ rate path That argues for a more cautious central bank stance, potentially delaying any further rate hike, perhaps in December. At the same time, the wider than expected trade deficit, driven by import costs continuing to outpace export growth, keeps imported inflation pressure in the mix, a factor the BoJ will not want to dismiss even as growth signals soften. This creates a genuine policy tension for the central bank between a cooling investment outlook and persistent cost push inflation from the import side. The yen has so far shown limited reaction to the data, softening a little, but a Bank of Japan viewed as more hesitant to hike could weigh on the currency over time, while continued yen softness would in turn keep import costs elevated and reinforce the same trade deficit dynamic. For the Nikkei, a more dovish BoJ read would typically be supportive, cheaper yen and lower rates have historically favoured Japanese exporters and equities more broadly, though the weaker capex signal is a mild offset for sectors tied to domestic business investment.- A soft capex signal and a wider trade gap give Japan's economic picture a slightly cautious tilt this week, even as both imports and exports beat forecasts individually.Summary:Japanese core machinery orders fell 3.7% month on month in July, missing forecasts for a 2.8% decline and reversing a 9.7% rise the previous monthOn an annual basis, machinery orders rose 11.2%, below the 15.3% forecast and down from 16.9% previouslyJapan's August trade balance showed a deficit of 1105.6 billion yen, wider than the 1052.6 billion yen expected and well above July's 638.3 billion yen shortfallImports rose 28.0% year on year in August, ahead of the 26.3% forecast though only slightly above July's 27.9% paceExports rose 19.3% year on year, ahead of the 18.2% forecast but a clear slowdown from July's 23.2% growth rateThe combination of a weaker leading capex indicator and a widening trade deficit presents a mixed picture for the world's fourth largest economyJapan's latest economic data presented a mixed picture on Tuesday, with a key leading indicator for business investment falling well short of expectations while the country's trade deficit widened more than forecast, driven by import growth that continued to outpace exports.Core machinery orders, a closely watched gauge of future capital expenditure, fell 3.7% in July from the previous month, against expectations for a 2.8% decline and reversing a 9.7% increase in June. On a year on year basis, orders rose 11.2%, below the 15.3% pace expected by economists and a step down from June's 16.9% growth. The indicator tends to lead actual capex spending by several months, so the miss raises questions about the durability of Japan's recent investment momentum, even as the broader trend has remained positive over the past year.Separately, Japan's trade balance for August showed a deficit of 1105.6 billion yen, wider than the 1052.6 billion yen shortfall economists had forecast and a sharp deterioration from July's 638.3 billion yen deficit. The widening gap was driven primarily by imports, which grew 28.0% year on year, ahead of forecasts for 26.3% growth though only marginally faster than July's already elevated 27.9% pace. Exports also beat expectations, rising 19.3% against a forecast of 18.2%, but that represented a clear slowdown from July's 23.2% growth rate, suggesting external demand for Japanese goods may be losing some momentum even as it remains historically solid.Taken together, the data complicate the picture for policymakers at the Bank of Japan, who have been weighing the pace of further monetary policy normalisation. A softer capex signal argues for a more cautious approach to tightening, while a trade deficit driven by elevated import costs, likely reflecting energy and raw material prices, keeps some inflationary pressure in the pipeline that the central bank cannot fully ignore. Investors will be watching upcoming data releases closely to determine whether this week's figures represent a temporary soft patch or the start of a more sustained slowdown in Japan's investment and trade momentum.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The core of the US proposal is a hard cap on how much of an AI server, chip or related piece of hardware can be built from parts sourced outside North America, which would directly hit the assembly model many firms have used to route Chinese made components through Mexico. That threshold, once set, would raise costs and complexity for manufacturers who have shifted AI hardware production south of the border partly to keep goods moving into the US with lower tariff exposure than Chinese equivalents face. Chipmakers and contract manufacturers with cross border supply chains are the most exposed, since ordinary semiconductors used in AI servers currently enter the US largely tariff free. Any firm outsourcing final assembly to Mexico while sourcing components from China or elsewhere in Asia would need to reassess its supply chain if a strict North American content threshold is adopted.---Washington wants a hard limit on how much of an AI chip or server can be built from parts sourced outside North America.Summary:The US proposal would cap the amount of non-North American content allowed in the production of AI hardware including chips and servers, the Wall Street Journal reportedThe aim is to stop Chinese and other foreign firms from routing components through Mexico to avoid US tariffsThe proposal is part of talks to revise the USMCA, a deal President Trump has repeatedly threatened to abandonAI hardware has become Mexico's top export to the US this year, overtaking automobilesA new round of US-Mexico trade talks is expected in Washington as early as next weekSen. Bernie Moreno said the goal is to stop China using Mexico and Canada as a gateway around US trade restrictionsThe United States wants Mexico to accept a cap on how much of an AI hardware product, including chips and servers, can be built from components sourced outside North America, the Wall Street Journal (gated) reported, citing people familiar with the negotiations. The proposal is designed to stop Chinese and other foreign firms from using Mexican assembly to sidestep US tariffs on Chinese made goods.The rules of origin threshold under discussion would apply to a category of hardware that has expanded rapidly and become Mexico's largest single export to the US this year, overtaking automobiles. That growth reflects how much manufacturing capacity has shifted south of the border as companies look to keep AI equipment moving into the US market while facing lower tariff exposure than Chinese made equivalents.The talks form part of a broader renegotiation of the US Mexico Canada Agreement, the trilateral trade deal President Trump has repeatedly threatened to walk away from. A fresh round of discussions between US and Mexican trade officials is expected in Washington as soon as next week, when the two sides are also likely to take up potential reductions in US tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles.Washington is not limiting its ambitions to AI hardware alone. Officials are also considering similar content thresholds for other goods, including medical equipment, to reduce Chinese content across supply chains routed through Mexico. The gap in current tariff treatment is significant: cars, auto parts and advanced computer chips already face levies, but the more common semiconductors used in AI infrastructure can currently enter the US largely tariff free, leaving a route officials worry Chinese suppliers could exploit.Senator Bernie Moreno of Ohio, who has been consulting with Mexican industry groups on the issue, told the Journal his concern is China using the Western Hemisphere to circumvent existing US trade agreements by having goods labeled as Mexican made when they are effectively Chinese in origin. He argued that any renewed trade agreement needs to prevent Mexico and Canada from becoming a channel for China to get around US trade restrictions.If a strict North American content threshold is adopted, it would add a new layer of compliance for manufacturers and could reshape investment decisions in Mexico's fast growing electronics sector, at a moment when the broader USMCA relationship remains under active renegotiation. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I think we can all agree it's a wating day for the FOMC.The Fed battleground is no longer Wednesday's meeting, but the ones afterwardsCalendar for the session ahead: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Explosions heard in Saudi ArabiaCanadians continued to spend through August - RBC spending tracker showsUS 20-year bond auction tails by 2 bpsBessent: For a nominal amount, the US Treasury was able to signal support for Japanese policiesSenate leader Thune: I am open to considering an export ban on dieselOil jumps after Libya says may declare force majure as protests suspend productionCarney: Canada to allow immediate expensing for most new capital investmentCanada wholesale trade for the month of July 0.3% versus -0.5% estimateSeptember US Empire Fed manufacturing +7.6 vs +15.0 expectedUS ADP weekly employment estimate rises to 16,250 vs 12,000 expectedMarkets:WTI crude oil up $4.56 to $105.99Gold down $2 to $4295US 10-year yields up 4.7 bps to 5.01%S&P 500 down 0.4%USD leads, JPY lagsBitcoin down 3.9%Oil rose for the 11th day in the past 12 and unsurprisingly, it pushed up yields and weighed on risk assets. The market has now moved to price in a 92% chance of a hike tomorrow from the Federal Reserve and has fully priced in another cut before year end. The question now for Warsh is how hawkish will he sounds. Pushing up the front end may help him establish credibility on the long end but he also likes strategic ambiguity and that could ultimately read as dovish. In any case, he will find himself in a tricky position on Wednesday afternoon in Washington.In terms of oil, it was sliding early in New York trading but then Libya announced field closures due to protests. That was quickly followed by Saudi Arabia suspending loadings at its lone Red Sea port in light of the pipeline attacks. There are some rumors in the market that Saudis told customers not to expect oil until November. In terms of moves towards peace, there was nothing credible but oil did come slightly off the highs in the afternoon but late reports of explosions in Saudi Arabia and airport closures lifted prices again.The dollar was generally bid and Bessent's comments on the yen suggest limited ammunition to intervene further. The Fed is obviously a big consideration in the dollar trade as well. Tomorrow's decision hits at a vulnerable time for AI with calls for a slowdown. At the same time, we've seen some remarkable resilience in stock markets this year even as we went from pricing in Fed cuts to 97 bps of hikes in the year ahead. That's the state of play going into the big decision.Late in the day the crypto-regulating CLARITY Act failed in the Senate and that led to a slump in bitcoin and altcoins. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The Canadain dollar is down for the fifth consecutive day as USD rises across the board on an expected Fed rate hike.Below the surface, Prime Minister Mark Carney is trying to lay the groundwork for an investment boom. He's hosting an investment summit in Canada this week and that's included a series of announcements on spending, including one on a data centre yesterday.Today's announcement is a nice carrot for companies thinking of putting money to work and mirrors what the Trump administration did in the Big, Beautiful Bill. Allowing immediate expensing on a longer-term investment gets the deductions back into corporate coffers more quickly, compounding on the time value of money. That said, Canada put in immediate expensing for machinery in 2018 and last year added building materials and clean energy equipment. There is also some accelerated depreciation that's allowed. So the actual impacts here are going to depend on company specifics but it's strong signaling. The government estimates it will cost C$36 billion over five years so that's the number that's getting shifted to the corporate side.The bigger problem facing Canada and much of the world is inflation in light of the war in Iran. The market is pricing in five BOC rate hikes through 2027 and that's going to be a big headwind for a struggling housing sector and corporate borrowing. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Canada’s July wholesale trade:Wholesale sales MoM: +0.3% vs -0.5% expected. Prior +2.8%Wholesale sales YoY: +7.9%Wholesale sales volumes MoM: -0.6%Wholesale inventories: Essentially unchanged at C$140.6 billionInventory-to-sales ratio: 1.51 vs 1.52 in JuneCanadian wholesale sales increased 0.3% to C$93.1 billion in July, according to Statistics Canada. That was stronger than the 0.5% decline expected, although growth slowed sharply from June’s 2.8% increase.Sales increased in three of seven subsectors. Building materials and supplies led the gains, rising 3.5%, helped by a 10.3% increase at metal service centres. Food, beverage and tobacco sales increased 1.7%.The details were more mixed than the headline. When adjusted for price changes, wholesale sales volumes declined 0.6%. That suggests higher prices—including steel prices—accounted for at least part of the increase in the dollar value of sales.Quick analysis: The headline was stronger than expected and may provide modest support for the Canadian dollar, which would normally pressure USDCAD lower. However, the decline in sales volumes softens the result and suggests underlying demand was not as strong as the headline implies. On balance, this report alone is unlikely to materially change expectations for the Bank of Canada.What this report measures: Wholesale sales track the value of goods sold by Canadian wholesalers to retailers, businesses and other customers. Traders monitor the monthly report for clues about business demand, inventories and future economic activity. The volume measure adjusts for price changes, making it useful for determining whether businesses sold more goods or simply collected more because prices increased. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was +20.6New orders +2.0 vs +17.3 priorPrices paid +63.1 vs +58.6 priorEmployment +10.6 vs +9.3 priorSix monthis index +29.0 vs +32.1 priorThis report isn't a big market mover but it lands on the morning of the first day of the Fed meeting so it will be notable, particularly for the doves. There has been so much of this back-and-forth with economic data that it's easy to imagine either side digging in. The market is now 91% priced for a rate hike so it would be an incredible surprise if they went the other way but holdout doves just got a bit of ammunition.For the hawks, prices paid rose again and are back near the highest levels since 2022.“On the heels of strong growth in August, New York State manufacturing activity continued to pick up modestly in September. Employment grew at a solid pace, while pricing pressures intensified," said Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed in the release.General Business conditions: This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

U.S. ADP NER Pulse for the four weeks ending August 29:Weekly private employment change: +16,250 vs +12,000 expected. Prior +12,250Four-week moving average, seasonally adjustedU.S. private employers added an average of 16,250 jobs per week during the four weeks ending August 29, according to ADP Research.The result was stronger than the 12,000 estimate and increased from 12,250 previously. ADP said hiring increased for the second consecutive week, although the preliminary figures may change as additional data becomes available.Quick analysis: The report points to some improvement in private-sector hiring after relatively subdued gains during the preceding weeks. That is modestly supportive for the USD and Treasury yields, but the NER Pulse is still a preliminary four-week moving average—not a replacement for the monthly ADP report or the government’s nonfarm payroll data. With the Federal Reserve decision tomorrow, its immediate market influence may be limited.The ADP Weekly NER Pulse is a high-frequency estimate of changes in U.S. private-sector employment. “NER” stands for National Employment Report.It measures: The estimated week-to-week change in private payroll employment Reported as a four-week moving averageSeasonally adjusted Published with a two-week lag so ADP can collect more complete payroll information Released most Tuesdays at 8:15 a.m. ETIt differs from the monthly ADP employment report. The weekly Pulse is designed to provide a timelier view of the direction of hiring, but it is preliminary and subject to revision as additional data arrives.For example, a reading of +16,250 means private employers added an estimated average of 16,250 jobs per week over the latest four-week period. It does not mean 16,250 jobs were added during the entire month.For traders, it offers an early indication of labor-market momentum. A stronger-than-expected reading can normally support the USD and Treasury yields, while a weaker reading can pressure them. However, it is generally less market-moving than monthly ADP employment or the government’s nonfarm payroll report. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Headlines:USD/INR erases all RBI intervention gains as surging oil prices weigh on the Indian RupeeOil remains supported as supply risks intensify and diplomatic progress stallsBill Lipschutz's scale trading strategy: Why smart traders don't go all in at onceManaging Currency Exposure With OANDA’s Forex Trading PlatformZcash outperformed most cryptocurrencies following ETF launch, now focus shifts to Clarity Act and FOMCGerman investor morale continues to rise in September but less than expected - ZEW surveyUSD/JPY breaks above 155 as Treasury yields hit highest since 2007EUR/USD falls below the key 1.1560 support ahead of the FOMC decision. What's next?European stocks fall at the open as oil surge and higher bond yields hit sentimentEthereum gets jittery ahead of CLARITY Act vote and Fed decision. What to watch next?What if higher interest rates aren't actually bad for crypto?UK labour market cools further as payrolls fall and wage growth slowsWhat are the main events for today?TMGM Strengthens Support for Para Sport Development in VanuatuFX option expiries for 15 September 10am New York cutWTI Crude Oil Forecast: $103.40 Resistance Tests RecoverySkynet delayed?10-year Treasury yields hit 5.02% as bond market sends a warning ahead of the FedPentagon confirms Iran war munitions shortage Trump had deniedMarkets:WTI crude oil up +1.45% to $102.86Gold down -0.40% to $4281EUR/USD down -0.11% to 1.1534USD/JPY up +0.33% to 154.82S&P 500 down -0.21% to 7609.00Bitcoin up -1.41% to $77,063It's been a pretty quiet session with limited newsflow and economic data releases. In terms of economic data, the highlight of the session was the UK employment report. The UK labour market showed further signs of cooling, with payrolls falling again and wage growth slowing. The data reinforces the picture of gradually weakening labour conditions. The data therefore offered some dovish signals, but not enough to materially change the BoE's inflation focused stance. We also had the German ZEW survey. Investor sentiment continued to improve in September, but the increase was smaller than expected, potentially pointing to waning momentum amid the ECB rate hikes and surging oil prices.In the markets, the biggest moves were seen in the cryptocurrencies space ahead of the cloture vote on the Clarity Act today at 2:15pm ET. A failed vote could close the legislative window for crypto market structure this year, given the November midterms. This outcome would likely be negative for cryptocurrencies in general in the short-term. But even a successful vote may not be positive. With the FOMC decision coming tomorrow, I’m afraid we could see a “sell the fact" reaction as traders shift their attention from the Clarity Act back to monetary policy and the negative macro picture.In other markets, the price action has been mostly rangebound ahead of tomorrow's FOMC decision as hawkish surprises could lead to risk-off flows. In the near-term, oil prices continue to drive pretty much all markets. The Iran war and Fed rate hikes remain the two main stories to focus on. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.