Forex News

In the European session, the main highlight was the UK employment report. The data missed expectations across the board and weighed a bit on the pound, although it might not be sustained as the BoE is focused on inflation data and the Autumn Budget. Nonetheless, we should see the December cut probabilities increase a touch.Looking ahead, we have just the German ZEW report on the agenda which is unlikely to be market-moving given that it won't change anything for the ECB. In the American session, we don't have much other than a couple of low-tier releases like the US NFIB and the US Redbook data. As a reminder, it's a federal holiday today in the US (Veterans Day) with the stock market open and the bond market closed. Central bank speakers:08:30 GMT/03:30 ET - ECB's Vujcic (neutral - voter)08:30 GMT/03:30 ET - BoE's Greene (hawkish - voter)13:00 GMT/08:00 ET - ECB's Kocher (neutral - voter)16:45 GMT/11:45 ET - ECB's Escriva (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior 4.8%Employment change -22k vs 0k expectedPrior 91kAverage weekly earnings +4.8% vs +5.0% 3m/y expectedPrior +5.0%Average weekly earnings ex bonus +4.6% vs +4.6% 3m/y expectedPrior +4.7%October payrolls change -32kPrior -10; revised to -32kThat's a soft report all around with October payrolls falling while the jobless rate runs up more than anticipated to the highest since March 2021. Even the wages data was a little softer at the balance and all of this put together might just prompt the BOE into taking action sooner rather than later. The only saving grace is that real earnings (vs CPI) is still on the softer side with total pay moving down from 0.9% to 0.7% in the three months to September in real terms.With the drop in payrolls in October, total payrolled employees in the UK now stand at 30,273,000. That's the lowest since September 2023.The odds of a rate cut in December were around 61% before this but should go up later once the rates market opens. GBP/USD has dropped from 1.3155 to 1.3125 currently on the release here.Given the fact that the BOE hold last week was as a close one (5-4 vote), the softening in labour market conditions here should tip the scales for a December move. However, any further action next year will largely depend on the autumn budget as well. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

I've said it once and I'll say it again (and again, and again). You just can't keep a good gold down. As the end to the US government shutdown draws near, that saw risk assets rally since late Friday and in the opening stages this week. The curious thing though is that gold also surged higher with near 3% gains yesterday. Is it a coincidence or are gold traders getting ahead of the curve on this one?The rush higher now sees gold contest the 50.0 Fib retracement level of the swing lower in late October. The over 10% dive in gold now sees price come back up by roughly 6% already from the bottom near $3,900.From a technical standpoint, holding above the 50.0 Fib retracement level is a relatively important one in ensuring gold bulls have the right platform to hunt down $4,200 next. And after that, I would argue that the next key point is the October highs around $4,375-81.But if risk trades are rallying, why is it that gold - often deemed as a safe haven asset - also surging higher?Is it a coincidence in the sense that gold has also turned to be a sort of risky asset? That means whereby traders and investors are pouring excess liquidity into the precious metal? Perhaps so but the reasons for doing so are a bit convoluted. That as the fundamentals continue to dictate that gold remains a relatively unmatched hedge against global uncertainty, US policy uncertainty, anxiety over interest rates and inflation, as well as concerns over the mounting debt among major economies such as the US, Japan, and France.In some sense, it is still a safety hedge so to speak. And in that lieu, does that mean gold traders are the ones getting ahead of the curve over everyone else?That especially when you see stocks continue to rally back to near the peaks again with the jump higher in Wall Street yesterday being nothing short of inspiring.But when you put two and two together, it feels like something's gotta give eventually.For the time being, global central banks are still stepping up their gold reserves and ETF buying remains robust with surging demand as seen with ETFs. On the latter, gold ETF purchases totaled to $8.2 billion in October and that represents a 6% jump in just a single month - marking a fifth straight month of inflows. And of note, China contributed to $4.5 billion of that. 👀👀Sentiment is definitely still strong but if traders and investors are feeling that fervent over gold, what does that say about the risk mood in the big picture? If it's mostly an inflation story, then it feels like there might be a deep reckoning coming at some point for risk trades. That especially if it puts off the Fed from cutting rates going into next year.Otherwise, gold may be underpinned now but if the tariffs inflation narrative dies down next year, that could yet halt any further major upside potential in 2026 for a moment at least. That considering the surging run higher that we've seen since last year. If so, then risk trades can breathe easy and we could continue to see gold and stocks climb hand-in-hand.However, it wouldn't be too farfetched to argue that for all the reasons gold continues to move higher, they could come back to bite at equities and risk at some point in the future. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The Wall St Journal is reporting that Beijing is looking into designing a new system in facilitating its rare earth exports, one that will exclude firms with ties to the US military, according to the people familiar with the plan. The new system is dubbed the "validated end-user" system (VEU) and will make it more difficult or complicated for automotive/aerospace firms that are involved in both civilian and defence sectors.The whole idea is to fast-track export approvals for other firms but not ones that are known to be involved with the US military. For some context, these rare earth magnets are also needed for military usage in the makings of fighter jets, submarines, and drones. Anyway, that means Xi is still able to keep his pledge to Trump somewhat but again, it's not exactly what was agreed to surely.The sources say that Beijing's plan could still change until the actual system is implemented but the general idea here seems to be that they are looking for a way to skirt around the deal made with the US. Not that it is all too surprising as this will also eventually see agriculture imports from the US die down in the months ahead, as we've seen happen before. Something, something promises are meant to be broken. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

JPMorgan remain bullish, eyes liquidity boost from US reopening. Nvidia earnings, Fed cutsBipartisan Senate bill proposes shifting crypto oversight from SEC to CFTC, crypto supportEthereum Futures: Key Breakout Zone Ahead (Apx. $3900)RBNZ inflation expectations: 1-year 2.39% (prior 2.37%) & 2-year 2.28% (prior 2.28% also)Tesla’s China sales slump 36% to three-year low amid fierce competitionFighting back: "Inside Opendoor’s plan to give short sellers a temporary middle finger"PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.0866 (vs. estimate at 7.1204)Yen continuing to weaken in the face of feeble verbal intervention efforts, USD/JPY 154.40Japan economy minister Kuichi says the weak yen is pushing up prices, higher import costsAustralian October business confidence dipped to 6 (prior 7)UK consumer spending slows ahead of budget and Black Friday promotionsSouth Korean trade improved in early November, imports and exports higherAustralia November Westpac-MI Consumer Confidence Index jumps 12.8% to 103.8ICYMI - U.S., Switzerland near deal to cut 39% import tariff, Trump confirmsSaylor's MicroStrategy lifts its bitcoin trove past $68bn after fresh $50mn purchase.Media reports that Senator Thune 'locked in' an agreement for shutdown end vote to passinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap 10 Nov: US stock surge on optimism of a shutdown dealUBS sees S&P 500 hitting 7,500 in 2026 on 14% earnings growthNomura: China’s anti-involution push insufficient to revive growth as demand weakensNasdaq has the best day since the end of MayTuesday, November 11, 2025 is a US holiday: NYSE and Nasdaq are trading, Bonds are closedThe U.S. Senate voted to approve the bill to end the government shutdown, as expected. The bill now heads to the House, where voting is set for Wednesday at 4 p.m. Eastern. Lawmakers are returning to Washington after the chamber’s 54-day recess. Gold extended its climb, trading above US$4,140 as I update.USD/JPY was another mover. The weak yen prompted mild verbal intervention from Japan, with Economy Minister Kiuchi acknowledging that high inflation is eroding household purchasing power and that the weak yen continues to lift import costs and consumer prices. He said Tokyo will expand measures to cushion the impact of higher living costs, including targeted aid for vulnerable households and energy relief. Kiuchi reiterated the government’s goal of wage growth outpacing inflation to restore real income gains and sustain consumption. The remarks offered little support for the yen, USD/JPY rose to circa 154.50, its highest since February.In Australia, consumer sentiment jumped sharply in November, with the Westpac-MI index surging 12.8% to 103.8, the first move into net optimism in nearly four years. The strength looks puzzling given rising unemployment, sticky inflation, and the RBA’s signal of no near-term rate cuts — especially as the separate ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly gauge remains near a 12-month low at 83.5. Respondents were more upbeat on the economy and job security, while dwelling-price expectations rose further amid ongoing policy support. Westpac called the data “extraordinary and somewhat surprising”; I’d add, not entirely credible.Australian business conditions also strengthened in October, with the NAB index up to +9, the highest since March, as firms reported stronger sales and profits while cost pressures eased. Capacity utilisation stayed high at 83.4%, underscoring a tight economy that justifies the RBA’s cautious stance on cuts. Business confidence dipped slightly to +6 but remained above average, pointing to solid underlying momentum despite lingering margin and wage pressures.The AUD/USD and NZD/USD both drifted a little lower on the session, though ranges were unremarkable. The U.S. dollar was bid more broadly also, with the CAD, EUR, and GBP easing modestly. Bitcoin edged higher. Asia-Pac stocks:Japan (Nikkei 225) +0.43%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) -0.2% Hong Kong stocks near a 1-month high Shanghai Composite -0.4%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) -0.11% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s Economy Minister Kiuchi said the government is increasingly aware that elevated inflation is eroding household purchasing power, noting that the weak yen continues to push up import costs and consumer prices. He said Tokyo will roll out and expand measures to cushion the impact of higher living costs, including targeted support for vulnerable households and energy relief steps. Kiuchi added that the government remains committed to fostering wage growth that outpaces inflation, aiming to restore real income gains and sustain private consumption. ---If this is an attempt to talk up the yen it's a poor one. Very mild, obvious, comments really. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

National Australia Bank business survey for October 2025. Business confidence dipped to 6 prior 7Business conditions, which is a more objective measure than the sentiment based confidence, rose to 9, its highest since March 2024driven by stronger sales and profitabilityprior 8Australian business conditions improved in October, suggesting the economy is maintaining solid momentum despite elevated capacity pressures and cautious central bank policy.NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld said the data show the economy has held onto the momentum gained since late 2024warned that high capacity utilisation and persistent wage and margin pressures continue to weigh on business confidenceThe survey’s sales sub-index jumped five points to +19, profitability rose three points to +9, and employment held steady at +3. cost pressures eased further, with purchase costs rising at a 1% quarterly rate and labour costs at 1.5%capacity utilisation ticked up to 83.4%, reflecting ongoing tightness in production.---The upbeat business survey follows the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision earlier this month to hold the cash rate at 3.6%, citing lingering inflation and firm domestic demand. ---The NAB survey points to a resilient economy with easing cost growth but sustained capacity strain, reinforcing expectations the RBA will stay patient on rate cuts despite improving sentiment in business and households. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

UK consumer spending cools ahead of budget and Black Friday promotionsBritish consumer spending slowed in October as households paused major purchases ahead of the government’s autumn budget and this month’s Black Friday sales, surveys showed Tuesday.Barclays reported that spending on its credit and debit cards — which cover nearly 40% of UK card transactions — fell 0.8% year-on-year, as essential outlays such as fuel and groceries dropped sharply. The data underline a cautious mood in the economy ahead of Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ November 26 budget, which is widely expected to include tax increases. Barclays strategist Julien Lafargue said both consumers and businesses had adopted a “wait and see” stance, creating short-term headwinds but potentially setting up a rebound if confidence improves into the festive season.Meanwhile, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) said retail sales rose 1.6% from a year earlier, marking the weakest annual growth since May.BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said retailers were depending on Black Friday to lift sales but warned that “looming budget decisions risk undermining fragile consumer confidence.” She added that unresolved business rates and weak demand were forcing retailers to make tough choices on investment and hiring.A separate Barclays survey of 2,000 consumers found one in three delaying big-ticket purchases until after the budget. All seven of its confidence indicators declined for the first time since August 2022, when the Bank of England delivered its sharpest rate hike in nearly three decades. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

South Korea’s exports rose 6.4% year-on-year in the first 10 days of November, while imports increased 8.2%, customs data showed Monday. The trade balance for the period stood at a provisional deficit of US $1.22 billion.The figures suggest steady external demand momentum early in the month, with import growth outpacing exports slightly, leaving the short-term balance in negative territory. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

U.S. and Switzerland move toward tariff deal as Trump signals rate cut.ICYMI, news from Monday US time. The United States and Switzerland are negotiating a deal to reduce the 39% tariff Washington imposed on Swiss imports in August, President Donald Trump confirmed Monday, saying discussions were progressing but that he had “not yet set any number.”Speaking in the Oval Office, Trump said the administration was “working on something to help Switzerland,” acknowledging that the U.S. had hit the Alpine nation hard but describing it as “a good ally” whose success Washington wanted to support.The Swiss government declined to comment on the talks after a Bloomberg report suggested a deal could be reached within two weeks, potentially cutting the tariff rate to around 15%. talks are ongoing and we do not comment further said a spokesperson for the Swiss Department of Economic AffairsThe 39% tariff, among the highest introduced under Trump’s global trade overhaul, has weighed heavily on Swiss exporters, particularly in luxury watches, machine tools, and chocolate, for which the United States is one of Switzerland’s largest markets. A rate reduction would ease pressure on these key industries and could mark one of the most significant tariff rollbacks since the administration began reworking trade relationships in 2024. ---A U.S.-Swiss tariff deal would ease strain on Switzerland’s key export sectors and signal potential softening in Trump’s broader trade stance, supporting sentiment across European industrial and luxury markets. CHF supportive. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US media outlet PBS reports that Senator Thune 'locked in' an agreement for shutdown end vote to pass. Once it does so it'll be handed over to the House of Representatives to vote on. This vote is not likely until Wednesday.-The Senate is expected to begin voting at 5.30pm local time. Thats 2230 GMT. Its going to be a long process. Political pundits tell me there will be 8 votes. Where is the Department of Government Efficiency when you need them? Oh, that's right, they were just a joke. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Nasdaq has the best day since the end of MayMore Trump: We are going to be a country very quicklyPres. Trump. The "Pay Back" numbers for tariffs/investments would be $2TCrude oil futures settles up $0.38 at $60.13Warren Buffett's final thoughts in his final letterGold climbs to the best levels since October 24US sells $58B of 3 year notes at a high yield of 3.579%European indices close solidly higherSwitzerland is reporting that they are close to a 15% tariff agreement with USFed's Miran: Data since September suggests Fed should be more dovish than SeptemberTrump:Money leftover from $2000 payment to low and middle income would go to National DebtFed's Musalem: Uncertainty has plateauedThe optimism in markets today isn't just the shutdown ending, it's how it endedFed's Daly: Inflation so far has been pretty contained in goods pricesThe USD is mixed vs the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD to start the NA new trading weekinvestingLive European FX markets wrap: Risk rallies as markets eye end to US shutdownHow have interest rate expectations changed after last week's events?More from Fed's Daly: We are likely experiencing a negative demand shockThe expectations are that the votes are there to end the government shut down and that has the stocks sharply higher (see Adam's post here). At the end of the day: the NASDAQ index. The best session since May 27 with a gain of 2.27%. The S&P index added 1.54% and the Dow industrial average increase by 0.81%.Gold surged and rose to its best level since October 24. The price is trading up $115 or 2.88% have 4115.605. That's the best one day gain since May 6. Silver also moved sharply higher with a gain of 4.48%. That was its best day since June 2. After trading as low as $98,240 last week, the price bitcoin is back up at $105,355. That is still well off the $126,272 level reached back on October 6.The U.S. Treasury sold $50 billion of 3 year notes at a high yield 5.579%. That was 1 basis point less than the WI level at the time of the auction. There was strong demand by both international and domestic investors. Yields in the US moved higher with the two-year up 3 point basis points at 3.594%. The 10 year was up 2.9 basis points at 4.121%. Tomorrow the US debt market will be closed in observance of Veterans Day. The US stock market, however, will be open.Trump said that a deal with India was in the works and Switzerland said that tariffs may be reduced from 39% to 15% soon. Trump may be a little concerned about some of the excess tariffs with the key Supreme Court decision looming. He lamented that the cost including reimbursement tariffs and investments would be greater than $2 trillion and that would be detrimental to the US economy. Fed speak today included San Francisco Fed Pres. Mary Daly, Fed Gov. Stephen Myron, and Fed's Musalem. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said policy is currently “in a good place,” noting that recent rate cuts have helped support the labor market while maintaining downward pressure on inflation. She emphasized that inflation remains contained in goods, and there are no signs of rising pressures in services, housing, or expectations. Daly also pointed to slower wage growth as evidence of a negative demand shock in the labor market and cautioned against keeping rates too high for too long. She added that asset valuations reflect optimism about productivity, potentially tied to AI developments, whether those gains prove transformative or not. Overall, somewhat dovish comments from Daly.Fed Governor Miran also spoke and the Trump nominee (dove - he voted for 50 bp cut at the llast meeting) argued that inflation data is outdated and trending lower, suggesting the Fed should adopt a more dovish stance than it held in September. He noted that employment data shows some softness, and that policy should be forward-looking rather than based on backward-looking inflation metrics. Miran believes that financial conditions remain tight, particularly in housing, and that while tariff-related inflation could emerge, it would be a one-off event, not demand-driven. He expects some growth early next year and sees it as imperative for the Fed to ease policy, advocating for at least a 25 bp cut, though he views 50 bp as more appropriate. Miran also stressed that the Fed’s role is not to address inequality, and acknowledged that the unemployment rate is drifting higher as the labor market softens. He concluded by noting that the FOMC remains divided, and the Chair’s role is to reflect that diversity of opinion.Fed’s Musalem said that economic uncertainty has plateaued, indicating a more stable outlook after recent volatility. He noted that the labor market has cooled in an orderly fashion, with conditions softening slightly but remaining broadly healthy. Consumer balance sheets are in good shape, and while some layoffs have been announced, unemployment insurance claims have stayed steady, suggesting that the job market remains resilient despite modest signs of slowing This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Nomura warns China’s “anti-involution” campaign won’t be enough to reignite growthNomura said China’s latest inflation data showed only modest improvement, suggesting the recovery remains fragile despite headline gains. October CPI rose 0.2% year-on-year, up from a 0.3% decline in September and slightly above forecasts. Producer price deflation narrowed to -2.1% from -2.3%, broadly in line with expectations.The bank noted that consumer prices were mainly lifted by higher food costs and a firmer core component, with surging gold prices a notable contributor, while producer prices benefited from stronger non-ferrous metals. However, durable goods prices stayed weak, underscoring persistent industrial softness.Nomura kept its 2025 forecasts unchanged, expecting CPI to average around 0% and PPI to fall 2.5%. It said China’s “anti-involution” measures — aimed at easing workplace competition and boosting productivity — are unlikely on their own to deliver sustained growth, given mounting demand-side headwinds and sluggish domestic spending. ----I've been posting on China's anti-involution policies since they came to ligfht. ICYMi:China’s “anti-involution” campaign refers to government and social efforts to counter neijuan (内卷) — a term describing excessive internal competition that yields diminishing returns, such as long work hours, overqualification, or unproductive rivalry in schools and workplaces. The concept captures how individuals and firms keep working harder without meaningful gains in innovation or income. Beijing’s anti-involution push seeks to shift focus from relentless competition toward productivity, creativity, and better work-life balance. It includes policies encouraging quality-driven growth, youth employment reforms, and a more sustainable corporate culture — though economists argue that without stronger demand-side stimulus, these measures alone won’t meaningfully lift China’s economic momentum. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The inflation expectations data from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand can be a market mover from time time. I don't think well get much from this today but you never know. The Bank is still forging ahead on a rate cut path. If these numbers jump that'll compl;icate matters but concerns over a slow economy should trump inflaiton worries for the time being. This snapshot from the investingLive economic data calendar.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Pres. Trump is doing more talking:ON shutdown, we are going to be a country very quickly The deal is very goodWe want healthcare where we pay money to people, not healthcare companiesWe are close to deal with IndiaWe will bring India tariffs down at some pointEconomic disaster if we lose tariff case in Supreme courtWe will hit 1.5% inflation pretty soon This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.