Forex News

France October consumer confidence 80 vs 85 expectedPrior 86; revised to 85That's a major blow. French household confidence falls to its lowest since 2013 in October as fiscal worries and concerns over the country's public finances weigh heavily on sentiment. That is not a good look as the index strays further away from the long-term average of 100, in which we haven't seen since December 2021.There were marked deteriorations in sentiment among most sub-indices, as households noted worsening past and expected financial situations. Meanwhile, the sub-index measuring past and future standard of living conditions also showed a big drop in October.Adding to those concerns, consumers are also fearing that inflation pressures are going to worsen in the months ahead. The sub-index measuring futures prices rose further to -7 points, its highest since May, and is well off the -32 points recorded in July.Besides that, unemployment fears also picked up with the sub-index there rising by another 5 points to 61 points on the month. That marks the highest level since March 2021.It's an all-round poor report as it signals that the French consumer climate has deterioriated markedly amid the social unrest and fiscal woes. And we're already starting to see that show up in economic data too, with French PMI figures this month already being rather disappointing.So, this will continue to be the troubling spot for the ECB to manage amid a further growth slowdown in Europe's second-largest economy while price pressures are looking to intensify more broadly. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low-tier releases like the French consumer confidence and the Spanish unemployment rate. The data won't change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted. The risk sentiment is neutral to bearish at the moment given the near-term risks like the FOMC decision, the US midterm elections and the possibility of renewed US strikes on Iran. Markets will likely continue to lean on the cautious side until we get a clear catalyst changing the current context. AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we get the US durable goods orders and the US consumer confidence report. Again, the data won't change anything for the Fed, so the market reaction will likely be muted. The focus remains on the Middle East as oil prices continue to make multi-month highs, weighing further on growth and inflation concerns. We have also the Israeli elections today but I'm not sure how a change of leadership would alter the current picture. Many opposition figures support maintaining pressure on Iran. The one having a drastically different view is opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot. Eisenkot said he believes economic pressure is the best way to defeat Iran. He backs strikes on Iran's nuclear program but not a return to all-out war. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

There is a bit of a welcome relief in global bonds to start the new week, particularly in Europe after Moody's affirmed France's Aa3 credit rating. Meanwhile, Treasury yields have also settled down a fair bit after an extremely volatile period earlier this month. But in looking at where things are right now, there is still plenty of tension lurking beneath the surface.For one, 10-year Treasury yields are still sitting just below the 5% mark for the time being. And over in Europe, the France-Germany 10-year yield spread remains at levels that would have surely been alarming just a few months ago.So while the selling pressure in the bond market has eased for now, the underlying concerns haven't really changed all that much. And as much as that offers some breathing room for broader markets, there are still plenty of reasons to be cautious.The Fed decision tomorrow is one obvious catalyst, even if policymakers are widely expected to leave interst rates unchanged. And beyond that, I'm also keeping a close watch on big tech earnings this week.On the latter, there's a growing concern over whether the enormous spending behind the AI boom can actually justify the returns. And if earnings from the likes of Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon all back that sentiment, we could see a rather nasty bout of volatility kick in again. That will especially be the case if investors start seeking safety in government bonds again while becoming more wary of riskier corporate debt. If so, falling Treasury yields might not necessarily be the good news that stock markets are hoping for.Looking to 10-year Treasury yields, the 5% mark remains the key level to watch. A firmer break below the 4.92% region could open up a further retracement towards the 100-day moving average (red line) around 4.77% next. Otherwise, a move back above 5% would keep the recent consolidation in focus with the October highs around 5.30% still in the picture.Over in Europe, Moody's decision to reaffirm France's Aa3 credit rating at the end of last week has certainly helped to ease some nerves.French bond yields have come off the boil, with the France-Germany 10-year yield spread now retreating towards 153 bps after racing to its highest levels since 2011 last week.However, let's not forget that Moody's also retained a negative outlook on France. The country's fiscal problems haven't suddenly disappeared overnight, nor has the political uncertainty surrounding efforts to bring its budget deficit under control. Those issues are still very much in the picture as we get into the new week.In any case, the chart above says plenty about how fragile the situation remains. The spread is still holding above the key 150 bps threshold, leaving the door open for another push higher if fiscal concerns return to the spotlight.For now, markets may be enjoying a bit of calm. But with major central bank decisions, big tech earnings and France's fiscal troubles all still in play, I wouldn't mistake that for a clean bill of health. No pun intended. ;) This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

European traders will be greeted with a rather bare economic calendar when they get to their desks today, and I reckon that might suit some market players just fine considering what is on the agenda later this week.In terms of data releases, we only have French consumer confidence for October and the ECB's survey on euro area lending for September. Otherwise, markets will largely be left to their own devices as traders wait on the central bank bonanza to roll into town.Wall Street at least provided a more positive lead in overnight trading, with the S&P 500 posting 0.7% gains and the Nasdaq closing 0.8% higher. Tech stocks helped to drive the rebound but caution is very much still up in the air, especially with the recent volatility surrounding the AI trade.As for geopolitical tensions, we are seeing more of the same old, same old. Fresh diplomatic efforts involving Iran are offering some hope of de-escalation but continued attacks on Saudi Arabia are keeping oil supply risks firmly in the picture.As such, I wouldn't be surprised if we see traders take on a more reserved and cautious approach to trading today. After all, the focus now turns to the BOC and Fed decisions tomorrow, followed by the ECB on Thursday and BOJ on Friday. And that is without mentioning big tech earnings with Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon all set to put the AI spending debate back under the spotlight.For today, I would look to bond yields, oil prices and the broader risk mood for clues on what might drive trading sentiment before we get to the bigger events this week. But without any major economic catalyst to latch on to, any notable moves may have more to do with positioning flows ahead of those events rather than any genuine market conviction I would say. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Asia firms into Tokyo lunch: Japan and Korea stocks rise, AUD and NZD gain after Nasdaq leadEthereum Foundation “dump” is a $6.4m treasury sale, not a crisisSouth Korea Q3 GDP grows 1.0%, beating forecasts as AI chip boom lifts exportsChina September industrial profits jump 14.4% y/y, rebounding from 4.2% in AugustJapan services PPI picks up to 3.7% as August revised lower, backing BoJ hike pathPBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7171 (vs. estimate at 6.6731)Japan September services PPI holds at 3.7% y/y, in line with forecast, before BoJGreer warns $3.4 billion EU loan to Airbus may breach US-EU aircraft trade truce Alt headlines:Australia CPI preview: banks see 1.0% core rise, above the RBA’s 0.8% forecastRBA is talking more but promising nothing: Westpac’s Ellis says read the data callsROADMAP: Morgan Stanley sees three catalysts ending the correction to ~7150, then S&P 500 to 8,000BoJ preview: MUFG sees hold but a 2% inflation call, with two dissenters the key yen riskICYMI: Morgan Stanley sees 10%-15% more downside for Chinese offshore stocks before a bottomGoldman Sachs: AI buildout to add up to 50bp to US core PCE, but the boost is temporaryNZIER Shadow Board majority backs 25bp RBNZ hike to 3% as oil and weaker kiwi biteCitadel Securities warns AI trade has little margin for error as three risks convergeCarney says Canada has not budged as US trade deal looks less imminent than claimedinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap 26 Oct: Anthropic IPO puts AI back in focus as stocks reboundSolana trading bot Bloom drained of $947,000 in SOL as nine users’ wallets emptiedSummary:Regional stocks mostly rose after a Nasdaq-led session on Wall Street, though China and Hong Kong laggedThe KOSPI jumped 3.4% and the Korea Exchange triggered a sidecar after the sharp rise; the KOSDAQ gained 2.8%The Nikkei rose 1.7%, led by chip-related stocksThe US dollar was slightly softer, AUD and NZD rallied, while USD/JPY moved higher as the yen weakened broadlyJapan’s services PPI rose 3.7% y/y, up from a downwardly revised 3.5%; China’s industrial profits rebounded 14.4% y/y in SeptemberSouth Korea’s Q3 GDP grew 1.0% q/q, beating forecasts on AI chip-driven exportsOil edged lower despite continuing Saudi-Houthi exchanges, and gold traded sideways just above $4,000Equities Asian equities were mostly firmer on Tuesday, picking up the positive lead from Wall Street, where a Nasdaq-led session improved sentiment. Mainland China and Hong Kong were the exceptions.South Korea led the gains. The KOSPI climbed 3.4%, and its sharp rise prompted the Korea Exchange to trigger a sidecar, a temporary halt on program trading used to cool rapid moves. The KOSDAQ added 2.8%. Third-quarter GDP data showed the economy grew 1.0% from the previous quarter, well above the 0.7% forecast, as the global AI chip boom lifted exports and investment. The Bank of Korea estimates chips are driving about half of growth, although private consumption fell for the first time in nearly four years.In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose 1.7%, with chip-related stocks leading the advance. In China, the Shanghai Composite slipped 0.1%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.4%.Data Japan’s services producer price index rose 3.7% year on year in September, in line with forecasts and up from a downwardly revised 3.5% in August. The index is watched by the Bank of Japan for signs that firms are passing rising labour costs on to prices. The BoJ concludes its policy meeting on Friday and is expected to hold rates at 1.25% while signalling readiness for further hikes.China’s industrial profits rose 14.4% year on year in September, rebounding from 4.2% growth in August. Year-to-date growth eased slightly to 15.5% from 15.7%.Currencies The US dollar was slightly softer across much of the board. The Australian and New Zealand dollars both rallied, with Australia’s quarterly CPI data due on Wednesday. USD/JPY moved higher, bucking the broader dollar softness, as the yen weakened across the board.Commodities Oil prices edged slightly lower despite continuing exchanges between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, a reminder that Middle East supply risk remains in the background. Gold traded mostly sideways, holding just above $4,000 an ounce.CanadaHopes for a quick US-Canada trade agreement faded on Monday after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Ottawa has not changed its position in talks with Washington, and that any progress made so far reflects the US moving closer to Canada’s stance. The comments came as Semafor, citing sources, reported that a deal is likely not as imminent as US officials had suggested over the weekend. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The rebound offers a modest positive surprise for Chinese assets at a time when sentiment is fragile, with onshore equities in a bear market and Morgan Stanley warning of further downside in offshore shares. Industrial and materials stocks are the most direct beneficiaries, and the data may slightly ease concerns about a sharp earnings slowdown. Commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar could find mild support from any read-through to Chinese industrial demand. That said, the gently slowing year-to-date trend and the lack of a sector breakdown limit how far markets are likely to run with the headline.PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7171 (vs. estimate at 6.6731) China’s factory profits shook off August’s slump in style, though the year-to-date trend is still drifting gently lower beneath the bounce.Summary:China’s industrial profits rose 14.4% y/y in September, up from 4.2% in AugustYear-to-date profits rose 15.5% in January to September, down slightly from 15.7% in January to AugustAugust’s 4.2% was the slowest single-month growth since November 2025In January to August, mining and manufacturing led gains while utilities declinedHigh-tech and AI-related manufacturing have been strong performers this yearSeptember’s rise comes on top of a strong base, after profits jumped more than 21% in September last year Profits at China’s industrial firms rose 14.4% year on year in September, a sharp rebound from 4.2% growth in August, official data showed on Tuesday. Cumulative profits for the first nine months of the year rose 15.5%, edging down from 15.7% in the January to August period.The September reading marks a strong recovery after August’s weak result, which was the slowest single-month growth since November 2025 and had followed an 11.2% rise in July. The rebound suggests August’s slowdown was not the start of a sustained downturn in corporate earnings, although year-to-date growth has continued to drift lower, from 17.6% in the January to July period to 15.5% now.Industrial profits data, published monthly by the National Bureau of Statistics, cover larger industrial companies across mining, manufacturing and utilities. The figures are watched as a gauge of corporate health and pricing power in the world’s second-largest economy, and of firms’ capacity to invest and hire. Monthly readings can be volatile, so the year-to-date figure is often a better guide to the underlying trend.Breakdowns for September were not available at the time of writing. In the January to August period, growth was led by mining, where profits rose about 35%, and manufacturing, up about 17%, while utilities recorded a decline of around 12%. High-tech and AI-related manufacturing had been strong performers, with computers and communications equipment profits more than doubling, though subdued domestic demand weighed on profitability in some industries.The rebound comes against a difficult backdrop for Chinese markets. Onshore equities are in a bear market, and Morgan Stanley warned this week that offshore Chinese shares could fall a further 10% to 15% before reaching a valuation floor, citing a weakening economy among other pressures. Firmer industrial earnings offer some counterweight to that gloomy view, at least for the industrial sector.The details of the September release, particularly which sectors drove the rebound and whether domestic demand is improving, will determine whether the strength proves durable or whether it partly reflects the month-to-month volatility typical of this series. The rise is all the more notable because it comes on top of a strong September last year, when profits jumped more than 21%.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

An in-line print is unlikely to move the yen much on its own, but it removes one possible dovish surprise before Friday’s decision and keeps the backdrop supportive of December hike pricing. Steady services inflation strengthens the case for the Outlook Report to effectively declare underlying inflation has reached 2%, which would support the yen and short-end JGB yields. The bigger moves are still likely to come from the BoJ’s vote split, Ueda’s press conference and Wednesday’s Fed decision. Oil-driven cost pressure tied to the Iran conflict keeps the wider inflation backdrop firm.---Earlier:BoJ preview: MUFG sees hold but a 2% inflation call, with two dissenters the key yen riskJapan services PPI preview: 3.7% pace in focus ahead of Friday’s BoJ decision---Japan’s firms are still passing on service costs at a two-year-high pace, handing the BoJ one more piece of evidence for the 2% declaration markets expect this week.Summary:Japan’s services producer price index rose 3.7% y/y in September (expected 3.7%, prior 3.7% was revised to 3.5%)That holds the annual pace at its highest in more than two yearsThe index tracks prices companies charge each other for services and is watched for wage pass-throughGoods producer price inflation slowed to 6.8% in September from 7.6%The BoJ meets October 29-30 and is expected to hold at 1.25%, with a December hike the consensus callFocus is on whether the Outlook Report effectively declares underlying inflation has reached 2% Japan’s services producer price index rose 3.7% year on year in September, in line with expectations and matching August’s pace, Bank of Japan data showed on Tuesday. That keeps the annual rate at its highest in more than two years, just days before a BoJ policy meeting where the bank’s assessment of inflation is expected to matter more than the rate decision itself.The index, also known as the corporate services price index, tracks what companies charge each other for services such as transport, communications, finance, real estate, advertising and equipment leasing. Because these services are labour-intensive, the data are watched as a gauge of whether rising wages are being passed through into prices, a key part of the BoJ’s case that inflation in Japan is becoming self-sustaining.The steady reading contrasts with the goods side, where producer price inflation slowed to 6.8% in September from 7.6% in August as government fuel subsidies helped ease some raw-material cost pressure. Holding firm against that backdrop suggests domestic service-sector price pressure is proving more durable than the imported cost pressure that drove much of Japan’s earlier inflation.The release comes ahead of the BoJ’s October 29-30 meeting, where the bank is widely expected to hold its policy rate at 1.25% after raising it in September. Most economists expect the next hike in December. The bigger focus this week is whether the BoJ’s updated Outlook Report effectively declares that underlying inflation has reached its 2% target, a step it has never taken since adopting the goal in 2013. Governor Kazuo Ueda said after last week’s G20 meeting that underlying inflation was broadly close to 2% and that the bank could not tolerate a further rise.Markets will also watch the vote. The two board members who opposed September’s hike could dissent again in favour of a rate cut, a move that would soften the bank’s hawkish message and likely weigh on the yen. Today’s data does little to strengthen their case.Bank of Japan Governor Ueda  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This is a warning shot rather than an escalation, so the immediate market impact is likely confined to aerospace names, with Airbus and Boeing shares the most exposed to any shift in trade rhetoric. The bigger risk is that aircraft financing becomes a fresh front in US-EU trade tensions at a time when the administration is already fighting on several fronts, including Canada. Any move toward formal measures, such as reviving tariffs linked to the old subsidy dispute, would weigh on European aerospace and the wider supply chain. A quick EU response with loan details would likely defuse the issue.--- The Boeing-Airbus feud is back on Washington’s radar, with Greer warning that Europe’s record loan to Airbus could unpick a hard-won aircraft truce unless Brussels starts sharing details.Summary:US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer warned that a European Investment Bank loan to Airbus may violate the US-EU trade truceThe roughly $3.4 billion loan was made in June and is a record, and Greer says his office has received no details despite repeated requestsGreer says the issue creates substantial uncertainty for transatlantic aerospace trade and must be resolved quickly to avoid breaching the large civil aircraft agreementBoeing asked the US government in July to press for transparency on the loanThe loan came amid speculation Airbus would use it to develop a new aircraft model US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has warned the European Union that a record European Investment Bank loan to Airbus could breach the transatlantic trade truce, including a deal governing how large civil aircraft projects are financed, reopening one of the longest-running flashpoints in US-EU trade relations.In a statement on Monday, Greer said his office had received no details of the roughly $3.4 billion loan, made in June, despite repeated requests for information. He said the situation was creating considerable uncertainty for transatlantic trade in aerospace, and that it needed to be resolved quickly to keep production in the sector market-driven and to avoid a breach of the large civil aircraft agreement, which he described as hard-won.The European Investment Bank is the EU’s lending arm, and the loan is the largest of its kind, according to Reuters. It came amid speculation that Airbus would use the money to develop a new aircraft model. US planemaker Boeing asked the US government in July to press for transparency over the financing, setting up the latest round of scrutiny.Government support for aircraft makers has long been a source of friction between Washington and Brussels, with each side accusing the other of unfairly backing its national champion. The large civil aircraft agreement was designed to set ground rules on that support, so any finding that the loan breaches its terms would put the arrangement, and the broader trade truce it sits within, under strain.Greer stopped short of announcing any action, instead framing the issue as one that needs urgent resolution. That leaves room for a negotiated outcome if the EU provides the information Washington is seeking. However, the warning adds to a crowded trade agenda for the US administration, which is also locked in tense talks with Canada over tit-for-tat tariffs.For now, the dispute is a warning shot rather than an escalation. The next steps to watch are whether the EU or the European Investment Bank responds with details of the loan terms, and whether Washington moves from public pressure toward formal measures.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Australian dollar and front-end yields are set up for a binary reaction. With implied hike odds already above half, a trimmed mean at or above 1.0% would push November pricing closer to fully priced and support the currency. A 0.9% or lower print could see that pricing unwind quickly. Oil is central to the headline story: the fuel spike reflects the global energy shock tied to the Iran conflict, so further gains in crude would keep headline inflation elevated into year-end. The services component matters most for the RBA, since broadening price pressure would undercut the argument that this is purely an imported energy shock. The release coincides with RBA officials appearing before Senate Estimates, adding to the event risk.---Earlier:RBA is talking more but promising nothing: Westpac’s Ellis says read the data calls--- Australia’s core inflation is set to overshoot the RBA’s own forecast for another quarter, and with the banks split down the middle, Wednesday’s print may decide whether the Board hikes on Melbourne Cup Day.Summary:Australia’s September quarter CPI is due at 00:30 GMT Wednesday (20:30 US Eastern Tuesday)The big four banks see quarterly trimmed mean inflation at 0.9% to 1.0%, above the RBA’s 0.8% forecast, with headline at 1.2% to 1.3% q/q and 3.9% y/yCBA expects fuel prices up about 10% in September, taking annual fuel inflation to around 24%, and market services inflation rising to 4.3%The cash rate is 4.60% after four hikes this year; the RBA decides on November 3ANZ and Westpac expect a November hike, while CBA and NAB expect a hold, with CBA flagging a growing risk of another moveImplied hike odds jumped above 50% after Deputy Governor Hauser said the inflation outlook was materially worse than projected Australia’s September quarter inflation data, due at 00:30 GMT on Wednesday (20:30 US Eastern on Tuesday), is expected to show underlying price pressure running well ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s own forecast, sharpening the debate over whether the central bank hikes again on November 3. The big four banks broadly expect trimmed mean inflation, the RBA’s preferred core measure, to rise about 1.0% over the quarter, compared with the RBA’s August projection of 0.8%.Big four forecasts, September quarter CPI (q/q / y/y)The forecasts are tightly clustered. Westpac is the only bank below 1.0% on the quarterly trimmed mean, while NAB is slightly lower than its peers on headline inflation.Fuel is the main driver of the headline number. CBA expects fuel prices to rise about 10% in September after an increase of nearly 15% in August, taking annual fuel inflation to roughly 24% as the global energy shock feeds through to the pump. On the monthly measure, CBA sees headline annual inflation climbing to 4.2% in September from 4.0% in August, with the annual trimmed mean steady at 3.6%. The more important signal for policymakers may be services, where CBA expects annual market services inflation to edge up to 4.3% from 4.1%, a sign that price pressure is not confined to energy.The RBA has already raised the cash rate four times this year, most recently by 25 basis points in September, taking it to 4.60%. Market expectations for a further move rose sharply after Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said the inflation outlook was materially worse than the RBA had projected in August, with implied odds of a November hike jumping from about a quarter to more than half.The banks are split on what the RBA will do. ANZ and Westpac have a November hike as their base case, and ANZ says a 1.0% trimmed mean print would reinforce that view. CBA and NAB expect a hold, though CBA describes the decision as finely balanced and says the risk of another hike is growing, given softer activity, a weaker labour market and subdued consumption on the other side of the ledger.A trimmed mean at or above 1.0% would strengthen the case for back-to-back hikes, while a reading closer to the RBA’s 0.8% would give the Board room to pause. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The analysis adds a structural layer to an inflation backdrop already strained by energy, which argues against easing and supports the case for central banks on tightening paths, including the Fed and the Bank of Japan, to keep a hawkish bias into 2027. Japan’s projected 0.3 point boost is notable ahead of this week’s BoJ meeting, where the key question is whether underlying inflation has reached 2%. For bonds, a temporary but well-timed price shock could keep front-end yields supported. For equities, the finding that AI lifts prices more than growth outside Asian supply hubs feeds into investor scrutiny of returns on AI spending. Oil remains the bigger swing factor, but AI now adds to the pressure from the goods side.---Speaking of inflation, coming today:Japan services PPI preview: 3.7% pace in focus ahead of Friday’s BoJ decision--- AI is showing up in inflation faster than in growth, and Goldman Sachs reckons the price bump will be temporary, though not before central banks have to sit through it.Summary:Goldman Sachs says the AI infrastructure buildout will raise inflation in developed markets, with effects varying by region and fading through 2027Memory prices currently add about 19bp to US core PCE; direct pressures elsewhere are around 0.1 point for nowPeak boost is put at 50bp for US core PCE and 20bp for US core CPI; non-US developed markets see an average 25bp lift to core inflation into early 2027, possibly up to 33bpJapan is projected at around 0.3 point and the UK at about 0.2 pointGDP boost is modest at 0.3% on average across developed markets through 2026, with Australia highest at 0.6%Goldman cites the concentration of data centre input production among Asian exporters as limiting wider spillovers The global buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure is adding to inflation across developed economies, according to new analysis from Goldman Sachs, which sees the effect peaking at around 50 basis points on US core PCE inflation before fading through 2027. The bank stressed that the impact will vary by region and should prove temporary.The main channel is direct price pressure from the hardware behind AI. Goldman estimates that memory prices alone are currently adding about 19 basis points to US core PCE, where those components carry a larger weight in the index. Outside the US, direct pressures are smaller for now, at around 0.1 percentage point in most economies, but the bank expects them to build as higher costs pass through to consumer electronics prices, which carry larger weights in non-US inflation baskets than in American measures.On that basis, Goldman projects that price pressures directly linked to AI will lift year-on-year core inflation in non-US developed markets by about 19 basis points by the first quarter of 2027, compared with a peak boost of 50 basis points for US core PCE and 20 basis points for US core CPI. Taking all effects together, the bank estimates an average lift to core inflation of 25 basis points in non-US developed markets through early 2027, with potential increases of up to 33 basis points relative to long-run trends. Japan stands out at around 0.3 percentage point, with the UK at about 0.2 percentage point.The indirect effect, through stronger economic activity, looks limited. Goldman estimates the AI buildout will lift GDP across developed markets by a modest 0.3% on average through the end of 2026, with Australia seeing the largest boost at 0.6%, the euro area 0.2% and the UK 0.1%. The bank attributes the small spillover to the concentration of data centre component production among Asian exporters, which keeps much of the economic benefit within a few supply hubs.The analysis matters because it adds another source of upward price pressure for central banks already dealing with higher energy costs. Goldman’s view that the effect fades as memory price pressures ease suggests policymakers may treat it as a temporary shock, but its timing, peaking into early 2027, overlaps with a period when many are still judging whether inflation is sustainably back near target.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Canadian dollar had some deal optimism built in after the weekend remarks from Washington, so Carney’s comments and the Semafor report remove part of that support and leave USD/CAD sensitive to further trade headlines. A deal that eases retaliatory tariffs would still be a positive for Canadian exporters and cross-border supply chains, so any concrete breakthrough could still bring a sharp move. For oil, Canada is a major supplier of crude to the US, which keeps energy flows in focus whenever tariff talks shift. With the two governments framing progress so differently, traders are likely to want specifics before pricing a deal again.---Earlier:US and Canada working on deal to ease tariffs on Canadian steel and auto imports--- Washington says a deal is close, Ottawa says it hasn’t moved an inch, and the truth probably sits somewhere in the gap between the two.Summary:Canadian PM Mark Carney says Canada has not changed its position in trade talks with the USCarney says any progress made is because the US has moved closer to Canada’s positionHe acknowledged a slight intensification in the negotiationsSemafor, citing sources, reports a US-Canada deal is likely not as imminent as US officials indicatedOn Sunday, NEC Director Kevin Hassett said negotiators were very close to a deal easing tit-for-tat tariffs, a view echoed by President Trump Hopes for a quick US-Canada trade agreement faded on Monday after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Ottawa has not changed its position in talks with Washington, and that any progress made so far reflects the US moving closer to Canada’s stance. The comments came as Semafor, citing sources, reported that a deal is likely not as imminent as US officials had suggested over the weekend.The pushback follows upbeat remarks on Sunday from Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, who said negotiators were very close to an agreement that would ease the tit-for-tat tariffs between the two countries. US President Donald Trump echoed that optimism.Carney struck a more guarded tone. He acknowledged a slight intensification in the talks, but framed it on Canada’s terms, saying that to the extent progress has been made, it is because the US has come closer to Ottawa’s position. He also stressed that Canada’s own stance is unchanged, a signal that his government is not preparing to make fresh concessions to get a deal over the line.Taken together, the two sides are describing the same negotiations very differently. Washington is projecting momentum, while Ottawa is emphasising that any movement has come from the US side. That gap matters because each government has domestic reasons to appear firm, and public claims of being close to a deal can be a negotiating tactic as much as a statement of fact. Semafor’s report adds weight to the view that the remaining differences are more than technical.None of this rules out an agreement. More intensive talks suggest both sides see value in reaching one, and a deal that eases retaliatory tariffs would reduce costs for businesses on both sides of a deeply integrated border. The near-term question is whether the talks produce a concrete framework or a set of specific tariff reductions, rather than further statements of optimism. Until then, markets are likely to treat claims of an imminent deal with more caution than they did over the weekend.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

At the close: US stock markets climb Monday as Anthropic files for IPOUS and Canada working on deal to ease tariffs on Canadian steel and auto importsThe once Magnificent 7 are not so magnificent, but they still are large cap technology moversSaudi Arabia offers cash to Houthis to stop attacks - reportThe cost of intelligence is collapsingUS Treasury sells $69 billion of 2-year notes at a high yield of 4.708%Saudi, Pakistani, Iranian and Turkish security chiefs sit down in Tehran, agree to continue talksUS October Dallas Fed manufacturing index 13.4 vs 9.8 priorAnthropic files for IPO on Nasdaq, will use the symbol 'ANT'Morning Kickstart: Dollar higher as Fed, earnings and data flood loominvestingLive European session wrap: Stocks rebound as oil eases, French bonds find reliefAI moved back into the spotlight Monday as Anthropic’s public IPO filing gave traders another reason to assess both the opportunity—and the enormous financing requirements—behind the industry’s expansion.U.S. stocks moved higher, while oil pulled back. The dollar strengthened against all the major currencies in your closing snapshot, but gold still managed a modest gain. Treasury trading was more divided, with shorter yields rising and longer yields edging lower.Anthropic: A big IPO—and a big test for AIAnthropic filed for an IPO, applying to list on the Nasdaq under the symbol ANT. The maker of Claude has taken another step toward becoming a publicly traded company, although the filing leaves the number of shares and offering price unset. Filing for an IPO is a step toward a listing; the shares have not begun trading. sec.govInvestingLive reported expectations that the offering could raise more than $100 billion at a valuation of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion. Those remain potential deal parameters, rather than a priced offering. investinglive.comThe growth is substantial. Anthropic reported more than $16 billion in first-half revenue, roughly 14 times the year-earlier amount. That gives investors evidence of rapidly expanding demand, but the company also disclosed substantial losses.For traders, the question is straightforward: How much is that growth worth, and how much additional capital will be needed to support it? A successful offering would demonstrate continued appetite for AI exposure. It would also bring another major company competing for investor dollars. My takeaway is that enthusiasm for the technology and discipline about valuation will need to travel together.Dollar finishes higher across the boardThe USD gained against every major currency Its largest advance was against the Japanese yen, while its smallest gain was against the Canadian dollar:Versus JPY: +0.41%, with USDJPY at 157.51.Versus NZD: +0.35%, with NZDUSD at 0.5679.Versus CHF: +0.34%, with USDCHF at 0.8277.Versus AUD: +0.26%, with AUDUSD at 0.7015.Versus EUR: +0.23%, with EURUSD at 1.1176.Versus GBP: +0.21%, with GBPUSD at 1.3344.Versus CAD: +0.11%, with USDCAD at 1.4020.Treasury curve flattensThe late-session Treasury snapshot showed yields mixed:2-year: 4.7159%, +3.39 basis points.5-year: 4.8209%, +1.39 basis points.10-year: 4.9863%, −0.17 basis points.30-year: 5.2985%, −1.65 basis points.The curve flattened as shorter maturities underperformed. That was consistent with continued caution about the near-term policy outlook, even as longer yields found some relief.The Treasury also sold $69 billion of 2-year notes at 4.708%, slightly above the 4.705% when-issued yield. That 0.3-basis-point tail indicated buyers required a small yield concession. Investinglive.comU.S. stocks rebound; chips leadThe closing levels shows:Dow industrial average: 52,297.02, +0.16%.S&P 500: 7,675.07, +0.67%.Nasdaq Composite: 26,186.93, +0.89%.Semiconductors outperformed, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gaining more than 3%. Tesla rose around 5.3% following a Barclays upgrade. Anthropic’s filing helped put AI back in focus ahead of major technology earnings and the Fed decision. Chip and AI shares lead the reboundChipmakers and companies tied to the AI infrastructure buildout were among the session’s strongest performers. The buying extended beyond processors to optical networking, memory, storage, power generation and cooling equipment.In your late-session snapshot, the winners included:Lumentum (LITE): +8.19%Arm (ARM): +6.19%Coherent (COHR): +5.83%Bloom Energy (BE): +5.49%GE Vernova (GEV): +4.92%Texas Instruments (TXN): +4.72%Skyworks Solutions (SWKS): +4.09%Intel (INTC): +4.04%Datadog (DDOG): +3.93%Western Digital (WDC): +3.63%Cisco (CSCO): +3.51%Lam Research (LRCX): +3.22%Anthropic’s IPO filing put the AI growth story back in the spotlight. The breadth of Monday’s gains suggested buyers were looking across the infrastructure needed to support that growth. Data centers need chips, but they also need faster connections, storage, reliable electricity and cooling.After last week’s pressure on technology shares, buyers made a stronger showing. The next question is whether earnings and spending guidance can give them a reason to keep going.European shares finish higherThe European closing snapshot showed broad gains:Germany’s DAX: 25,410.85, +0.91%.France’s CAC 40: 7,847.33, +0.83%.U.K. FTSE 100: 10,767.32, +0.72%.Spain’s IBEX 35: 19,033.29, +0.23%.Italy’s FTSE MIB: 49,186.16, +0.99%.Oil retreats, but geopolitical risk remainsWTI futures were near $101.64, down $1.63, or 1.58%, in your snapshot.InvestingLive’s oil coverage pointed to relief after anticipated U.S. strikes on Iran did not materialize over the weekend. The risk of further attacks nevertheless remained a support for prices. investinglive.comLower oil offered some relief for inflation concerns. However, oil above $100 remains a meaningful cost pressure for businesses and consumers.Gold holds higher; Bitcoin slipsSpot gold traded near $4,012.36, up $16.55, or 0.41%. Gold held higher despite the stronger dollar, with the modest decline in longer Treasury yields providing a somewhat more supportive backdrop. investinglive.comSilver was nearly unchanged at $53.856, up 0.05%.Bitcoin traded at $79,811, down $237, or 0.30%. It failed to follow the equity rebound, showing that Monday’s improvement in risk appetite did not extend evenly across markets. investinglive.comThe next test is follow-through. Traders have an improving equity tone and lower oil, but also a stronger dollar and substantial expectations surrounding AI. Earnings, the Fed and the market’s willingness to finance the next stage of the AI buildout remain the key themes. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The services PPI is rarely a big mover for the yen on its own, but a reading at or above 3.7% would reinforce December hike pricing and lend modest support to the yen and short-dated JGB yields into Friday. A downside surprise would carry more weight than usual, coming after the sharp September slowdown in goods producer prices, and could lean against the yen by encouraging talk of a slower BoJ path. With an October hike effectively priced out, the yen’s bigger reaction is more likely to come from the tone of the BoJ’s outlook report and Ueda’s press conference than from this data.---Earlier:BOJ preview: Daiwa sees hold, but 2% inflation call could open door to December hikeBOJ to hold at 1.25%, but Ueda signals further hikes toward neutralNikkei slips, bounces, as Iran oil fears weigh; ING sees BOJ holding at 1.25%, two hikes in 2027--- Japan’s services inflation is running at a two-year high, and the BoJ’s real test this week is whether it is willing to say underlying inflation has finally reached 2%.Summary:Japan’s September services PPI (corporate services price index) is due at 23:50 GMT (19:50 US Eastern), with consensus at 3.7% y/y, unchanged from AugustAugust’s 3.7% was the fastest pace in more than two years; excluding international transportation it was a softer 3.2%The index tracks business-to-business service prices and is watched for evidence that wage growth is passing through to pricesSeptember goods PPI slowed to 6.8% y/y from 7.6%, well below expectationsThe BoJ meets October 29-30 and is widely expected to hold at 1.25% after September’s hike; more than 80% of economists in a Bloomberg survey see the next move in DecemberThe key focus is whether the BoJ judges underlying inflation has reached its 2% target, something it has never declared since adopting the goal in 2013Main article: Japan’s services producer price index for September is due at 23:50 GMT (19:50 US Eastern time), and while it rarely moves markets on its own, this release lands just days before a Bank of Japan meeting where the inflation narrative will matter more than the rate decision itself. Consensus looks for annual growth to hold at 3.7%, matching August’s reading, which was the fastest pace in more than two years.The index, published by the Bank of Japan and also known as the corporate services price index, tracks what companies charge each other for services such as transport, communications, finance, real estate, advertising and equipment leasing. It is labour-intensive by nature, so it is watched as a gauge of whether rising wages are being passed through into prices. That makes it a useful cross-check on the BoJ’s view that pay growth is feeding a self-sustaining inflation cycle, rather than inflation being driven mainly by imported costs.Context from the goods side has been less hot. Japan’s goods producer price index slowed to 6.8% year on year in September from 7.6% in August, well short of expectations, helped in part by government fuel subsidies. A steady services reading against that backdrop would suggest domestic price pressure is holding up even as some cost-push pressure from raw materials eases. One caveat: part of August’s strength came from international transportation, and excluding that component the index rose a more modest 3.2%, so the breakdown deserves as much attention as the headline.The BoJ meets on October 29 and 30, with the decision due on Friday. The bank raised its policy rate to 1.25% in September on a 7-2 vote, and a hold is the overwhelming expectation this week. A Bloomberg survey found more than 80% of economists expect the next hike in December, with none forecasting a move in October. Governor Kazuo Ueda has signalled there is no need for back-to-back increases, while making clear that rates will need to rise further toward a neutral level.The bigger question for markets is whether the BoJ’s quarterly outlook report judges that underlying inflation has reached its 2% target, a declaration it has never made since adopting the goal in 2013. A firm services print would add weight to that case and to December pricing, while a softer reading would give the board more room to stay patient. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I'll get a preview posted for the Japanese data soon (ADDED, here it is: Japan services PPI preview: 3.7% pace in focus ahead of Friday’s BoJ decision ). In brief, while the services PPI is rarely a big mover for the yen on its own, but a reading at or above 3.7% would reinforce December hike pricing and lend modest support to the yen and short-dated JGB yields into Friday. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

False reports of 'a Canada-USA trade deal' aren't far off from the number of reports about 'peace in Hormuz' so I would take this one with a grain of salt. There has been some noise over the weekend about new trade negotiations led by Lutnick.This report from Reuters cites two Canadian and four American sources that say the sides are talking about reduced tariffs on autos and steel. They're underway with broad discontent in US border states about tariffs and Michigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers now running against tariffs.The report says a deal is possible before the November 3 midterms but that the US wants Canada to make further concessions"If it happens, it'll happen fast. But my sense is that it'll be a narrowed deal, if it ever happens" a 'Canadian industry source' is cited as saying. The current schedule is for a rise to 50% tariffs on Canadian autos and steels from January 1 but Trump said at a rally on the weekend that a deal could come "soon". This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.