Forex News
- European indices open slightly higher to start the dayby Justin Low on December 3, 2024 at 8:05 am
Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 +0.2%UK FTSE +0.3%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy FTSE MIB +0.4%French stocks were a little more subdued earlier on but are now catching up again. As for the DAX, it is looking to build on fresh record highs as it closes in on the 20,000 mark. From yesterday: No economy, no problem This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- What are the main events for today?by Giuseppe Dellamotta on December 3, 2024 at 7:40 am
The main event in the European session was the Switzerland CPI. The data printed in line with estimates, so it doesn't change anything in terms of market pricing. In the American session, the focus will be on the US Job Openings data. It's unlikely that it will change anything for the Fed though as it looks like that only another hot CPI could force them to skip the December cut. 15:00 GMT/10:00 ET - US October Job OpeningsThe US Job Openings are expected at 7.475M vs. 7.443M prior. The last report surprised to the downside with the quits rate ticking slightly lower and the hiring and layoffs rates remaining relatively stable. It’s a labour market where at the moment it’s hard to find a job but there’s also low risk of losing one. There’s a good chance that things will improve next year though and there have been some positive signs already.Central bank speakers:08:00 GMT - ECB's Cipollone (dove - voter)15:30 GMT/10:30 ET - ECB's Panetta (dove - voter)17:15 GMT/12:15 ET - Fed's Daly (neutral - voter)17:35 GMT/12:35 ET - Fed's Kugler (dove - voter)18:30 GMT 13:30 ET - Fed's Goolsbee (dove - non voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
- Switzerland November CPI +0.7% vs +0.8% y/y expectedby Justin Low on December 3, 2024 at 7:30 am
Prior +0.6%Core CPI +0.9% y/yPrior +0.8%Swiss inflation continues to hold well below the 2% mark but with the franc keeping at firmer levels, especially against the euro, the SNB will still feel compelled to cut rates again later this month. It's now not so much about price pressures already for the SNB, though they still have to keep a watchful eye to not let it get overly depressed. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- UK stats office notes that unemployment rate is largely unchanged at 4.2%by Justin Low on December 3, 2024 at 7:14 am
On the headline, it compares to their latest estimate here that the unemployment rate in September was 4.3%.Meanwhile, the ONS says that it is revising the employment rate up by 0.1% to 74.6% in the period from April to June this year. Besides that, they are noting that new figures are showing that the overall employment level is now 313,000 above pre-pandemic levels. That is a contrast to the current data which suggests that the employment level is similar to that during the period just before the pandemic.Considering the ONS is still struggling to get an accurate read of labour market statistics at the moment, I'd take these numbers with a pinch of salt. Statistical credibility once lost is something that is going to take a long time to mend. And until they fix their ongoing issues first, it'll be tough to give the ONS the benefit of the doubt here. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- Eurostoxx futures +0.1% in early European tradingby Justin Low on December 3, 2024 at 7:04 am
German DAX futures flatFrench CAC 40 futures -0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.1%I would consider it a win to start December trading for European stocks, that especially after the lousy start yesterday. The overall mood was weighed down by French stocks amid the ongoing political uncertainty in Paris. That looks to be the case again today as we look to the open. Elsewhere, S&P 500 futures are flat as we get the session underway. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- China lifts final trade restrictions on Australia meat exportersby Justin Low on December 3, 2024 at 6:28 am
China has officially lifted its ban on two more of Australia's meat processing facilities, meaning it has now removed all restrictions on all 10 Australian abattoirs that it has banned between 2020 and 2022. For some context, the trade restrictions went into place amid the fallout between the two countries during the time. That came about when Australia decided to launch investigations on China into the origins of the Covid pandemic.The relationship between the two hit arguably its lowest point during 2021 and early 2022. That before the new Australian government took charge in the middle of 2022. Since then, it has been a slow repair process but relations have been improving. And this latest move is another step in that direction.For some added context, China is Australia's second largest beef and veal importer after the US. So, this is definitely a positive for the Australian industry. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- USD/JPY holds slight bounce after brush against key technical levelby Justin Low on December 3, 2024 at 6:04 am
We're seeing price nudge back up just above 150.00 for now but it comes after a more sluggish showing yesterday to start the new week/month. That despite the dollar seeing broader gains against the rest of the major currencies. The recent bid in bonds is still continuing to keep some downside pressure on the pair. However, the slight bounce today arguably owes in part to buyers stepping in upon a test of the 100-day moving average (red line) yesterday.The technical level is currently seen at 148.94 and that is the key line in the sand in play. For sellers, they need to break that to keep with the downside momentum. For buyers, holding that will provide more confidence of a potential floor before reading the next clues.For trading this week, US labour market data will be the key thing to watch out for. And they don't come any bigger than the non-farm payrolls report on Friday. As such, USD/JPY might have to wait until then to really get a feel of whether to stick with the rebound or break down further.In the meantime, broader dollar sentiment and the bond market will be the two drivers as we start December trading. That especially with a keen focus towards the upcoming FOMC meeting.As for the yen side of the equation, the question remains whether or not the BOJ will hike rates later this month.For now, policymakers are not providing any confirmation on that and that's keeping markets guessing as well. The rates market is pricing in ~56% odds of a 25 bps rate hike currently. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- Forexlive Asia-pacific FX news wrap 2 Dec: Nikkei 225 up 2.25%.Australia stocks at record.by Greg Michalowski on December 3, 2024 at 5:16 am
NZDUSD buyers trying to hold support and start a correction higher run.FX option expiries for 3 December 10am New York cutJapan sells 2.0 tn 10 year JGB at average yield of 1.084%Nikkei 225 index up 1.73%USDCNH rises to highest level since early JulyAustralia Current account balance -14.1B vs -10.0B estimateGBPUSD falls on Monday but bounces off a key downside target What next?More Fed Williams: Direction is toward lower rates over timeMore from Fed's Williams: Labor market softer but still pretty solidNew Zealand data: Q3 2024 Terms of trade +2.4% q/q (expected +1.8%)NY Fed Pres. Williams: Expects more rate cuts to happen over timeForexlive Americas FX news wrap: US dollar starts strong but gives it backS&P and Nasdaq close at record levels to start the new monthSad day for markets: Art Cashin dead at 83Markets:Gold rose $1.22 or 0.04% at $2640.00US 2-year yield 4.185%, -1.2 basis pointsUS 10-year yield 4.203%, +0.9 basis pointsWTI crude oil unchanged at $68.10Nikkei 225 +872 points or 2.26%Shanghai composite +6.75 points or 0.20% Hong Kongs Hang Seng +69.62 points or 0.36%The US dollar is trading modestly higher. The DXY dollar index is up 0.10% EUR, +0.10%JPY +0.37%GBP, +0.08%CHF +0.20%CAD +0.04%AUD +0.08%NZD +0.17%Fundamentally, New Zealand terms of trade for the quarter increased by 2.4% which was higher than the 1.8% estimate. Australia's Current Account balance had a larger deficit at -14.1B vs -10.0B estimate. That was the largest deficit since the 2Q of 2018. New York Fed President John Williams, a voting member of the FOMC, expressed expectations for more interest rate cuts over time, emphasizing that monetary policy remains restrictive for now and decisions will be guided by incoming data. Williams, a voting member on the Fed, highlighted the high uncertainty surrounding the economic and policy outlook but projected U.S. GDP growth of around 2.5% this year, possibly higher, with unemployment ranging between 4% and 4.25%. Williams foresees inflation at approximately 2.25% in 2024, gradually declining toward the Fed's 2% target, though progress may be uneven. William's also noted the U.S. economy is in a solid position with a balanced labor market that is softer but still robust, and he does not see the job market as a source of higher inflation. He also pointed out that businesses are finding it harder to push through price increases and sees no signs of a U.S. recession. While he acknowledged uncertainty about the neutral rate, he reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to returning inflation to 2% and indicated the eventual direction of policy will likely involve lower rates over time.Although he did not explicitly say he favors 25 basis point cut, he is leaning. The Nikkei took its cue from the US stock market (or so it seems) with a run higher from the get-go. The index opened up aroung 0.6% and is currently up 2.24% on the day. The Hang Seng, Shanghai composite index are also higher after moving lower earlier in the session. China's CSi300 is unchanged. Australia's S&P/ASX index is up 56 points or 0.66% and on pace for a record close. Gold is also trading near unchanged, as is oil and Bitcoin too (up $74 at $95,933)Technically speaking:USDJPY bounced off the 100 day MA (currently at 148.95) in the US session yesterday and that give the buyers the go-ahead to push hgher. The pair is back above the 150.00 level and testing the broken 38.2% of the move up from the September low at 150.18. Will the sellers lean here? Or will the buyers push back above and continue the upside probing after holding the key 100 day MA level?EURUSD fell to the high of a swing area between 1.0448 and 1.0461 and bounced higher. The run to the upside stalled at the 200 hour MA at 1.0509 currently. The price is trading at 1.0483 currently between the swing area below and the 200 hour MA aboveGBPUSD held support at the high of a swing area between 1.2596 and 1.26147 yesterday. The bounce higher moved up to test the 100 hour MA and found willing sellers. That 100 hour MA is now converging with the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.2672. That dynamic increases the levels importance in the European and US sessions today. Move above is more bullish. The price is currently at 1.2642 which put it firmly between the MAs above and the swing area below (down to 1.2596). Ahead of the swing area is the 200 hour MA at 1.2624. Watch that level for close clues in the European session today. NZDUSD retested the low from Monday's trading at 0.5862. That is in the middle of swing area between 0.5859 and 0.58667 on the hourly chart. From the daily chart that support extends down to 0.5848. It would take a move below that level to open the door for more selling momentum. On the topside, if the buyers are to rack up some wins technically, they need to take the price above the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.5886, the 38.2% at 0.5889 and the 100 hour MA at 0.58937. AUDUSD held support near the lows from November yesterday between 0.6433 and 0.6442. That area needs to be broken to increase the bearish bias in the European and US session. ON the topside, there is a swing area between 0.6471 to 0.64817 that would give the dip buyers some comfort with more work to do including getting above the 100 hour MA at 0.6493, the 200 hour MA at 0.64967 and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.65038. Getting above all those and staying above, would give the buyers some amunition for more upside. Absent that and the sellers are more in control.Good fortune with your trading. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
- A light one on the data docket for the session aheadby Justin Low on December 3, 2024 at 5:00 am
The dollar is sitting a little higher at the balance today, notably recouping some ground against the yen. USD/JPY fell yesterday to test its 100-day moving average and is now catching a slight bounce to be just above 150.00.Besides that, the antipodeans are also continuing to be pressured towards recent lows amid a softer Chinese yuan. AUD/USD is starting to inch back towards the support region around 0.6433-50 at the moment.With the focus shifting back to economic data and fresh flows this week/month, the dollar looks to be keeping in good stead for the most part. The only thing to be mindful of is the still strong bid in bonds. 10-year Treasury yields are still pondering a potentially firm break of its 200-day moving average of 4.206% and that will be one to be wary about.Looking to the session ahead, there won't be much on the agenda to move needle in broader markets. That might make for a quieter session as we await more US labour market data this week. The main event will be the non-farm payrolls report on Friday of course.Swiss inflation is the only notable release in Europe but with consumer prices holding well below 2%, the SNB will remain happy with the disinflation process. That said, they are still expected to cut rates again later this month and perhaps one final time in Q1 next year. That as the focus shifts towards managing the balance between the franc's strength and its impact on price pressures and the economy.0730 GMT - Switzerland November CPI figuresThat's all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- Is this Beijing's first line of defense against Trump?by Justin Low on December 3, 2024 at 4:43 am
The onshore yuan has fallen to its weakest since November last year, with USD/CNY now rising to 7.29 today. The surge higher in the currency pair has really taken flight after the US election and even more so as Trump continues to threaten China with tariffs. And as that shrouds the outlook for next year, is China taking on an early response here?There has been a line of thinking that Beijing could look to deliberately allow its currency to weaken in anticipation of the imminent trade war. This will help to enhance China's exports i.e. make it cheaper. And one can argue that it works out both ways too. It would be futile for the PBOC to also burn through its reserves to try and limit yuan depreciation if there is mounting pressure amid a stronger dollar as well.With the Chinese economy also struggling, it would be prudent for Beijing to undertake some form of safety/insurance measures before the Trump tariffs go into effect. That alongside further easing in monetary policy should help to offset some of the impact from the tariffs at least.But in doing so, they risk hurting investor confidence as well as consumption activity i.e. domestic demand in these trying times. So, that will be something that policymakers need to consider when turning up this release valve for the moment. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- Japan sells 2.0 tn 10 year JGB at average yield of 1.084%by Greg Michalowski on December 3, 2024 at 3:48 am
Japan sells JPY 2.0tn 10-year JGB:Bid-to-cover ratio: 3.12x (previous: 3.13x)Average yield: 1.084% (previous: 0.997%)Auction details:Lowest accepted price: 98.32 (previous: 98.08)Average accepted price: 98.37 (previous: 98.12)Tail in price: 0.05 (previous: 0.04)Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 contuns to move higher and has a gain of 2.01% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
- Nikkei 225 index up 1.73%by Greg Michalowski on December 3, 2024 at 3:08 am
The Nikkei 225 index opened above its 200-day MA at 38657.45 and has kept the momentum running. The price is currently iup 667 points or 1.73% at 39180.01. The index remains within the range between 37713 and 39884, but buyers are making a play technically.ALthough the Nikkei is running China's Shanghai composite index is trading near unchanged and the China's CSI300 is down -0.24%.Hong Kongs Hang Seng index is also lower by -0.27%, but Australia's S&P/ASX is higher by 0.67% and on pace for a record close. Both the S&P and the Nasdaq indices closed at record levels on Monday as the final month of the year begins. . This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
- Major stock indices in China/Hong Kong set to open with little changedby Greg Michalowski on December 3, 2024 at 1:27 am
Hong Kong's Hang Seng to open up 0.2%Shanghai composite index to open up 0.1%China's CSI300 to open up flat. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
- Australia Current account balance -14.1B vs -10.0B estimateby Greg Michalowski on December 3, 2024 at 12:33 am
Prior quarter -10.7BCurrent account deficit $-14.1B vs -10.0B estNet exports contribution 0.1% vs 0.3% estimate. Prior month 0.2% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
- Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index rises to a new all-time highby Greg Michalowski on December 2, 2024 at 11:13 pm
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index is up 0.4% and that has taken the price to a all-time high of 8478.90. The previous high was 8477.10 reached on Thursday of last week.For the trading year with one month to go, the index is up 11.3%. As a largest gain since a 13% gain in 2021 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.