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As London/European traders head for the exits, the major European stock indices are closing mostly lower. France's CAC 40 and Spain's Ibex led the declines, while Italy's FTSE MIB managed to finish virtually unchanged.The closing levels show:German DAX: -0.27% at 26,369.65France CAC 40: -0.66% at 8,579.61UK FTSE 100: -0.28% at 10,720.31Spain's Ibex: -0.73% at 20,010.30Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.01% at 53,586.98In the European debt market, benchmark 10-year yields moved higher across the board. Italy saw the largest move among the major markets, with its 10-year yield rising 3.3 basis points.Germany: 3.222%, +1.0 bpFrance: 4.067%, +1.5 bpsUK: 5.064%, +1.8 bpsSpain: 3.666%, +0.8 bpItaly: 4.028%, +3.3 bpsIn the forex market, the U.S. dollar is mostly lower against the major currencies. The Australian (+0.37%), Swiss frand (+0.36%) and New Zealand (+0.25%) dollars are the strongest performers but each are well off the day's extremes.  The JPY is the only currency that is lower vs the USD with a modest decline of 0.06% on the day.  A snapshot of the change in the major currency pairs shows: EURUSD: +0.10% at 1.1581USDJPY: +0.06% at 159.39GBPUSD: +0.15% at 1.3550USDCHF: -0.36% at 0.8102USDCAD: -0.02% at 1.3871AUDUSD: +0.37% at 0.7107NZDUSD: +0.25% at 0.5904As European traders head home, U.S. stocks are mixed. The Dow, S&P and Russell 2000 are lower, while the Nasdaq indices are holding onto modest gains.Dow: -204 points or -0.38% that 53523S&P: -11 points or -0.14% at 7774.90Nasdaq Composite: +44 points or 0.16% had 26772Nasdaq 100: +1.05 points or 0.35% at 30152Russell 2000: -10.36 points or -0.34% at 3058.03Technology shares are providing some support, but that strength has not been enough to pull the broader market uniformly higher. The Russell 2000 is the weakest of the major U.S. indices, while the Nasdaq 100 is the best performer.Fundamentally,Canada's inflation ran slightly hotter than expected in July, with headline CPI rising 3.0% year-over-year versus 2.9% expected, up from 2.8% in June, while prices increased 0.5% month-over-month. The Bank of Canada's underlying measures also firmed, with core CPI rising to 2.3% y/y, median CPI at 2.0%, trim at 1.9%, and common CPI at 2.7%. Much of the headline pressure came from energy and transportation, led by a 25.7% y/y rise in gasoline prices, while travel tours and airfares also climbed sharply, partly reflecting higher fuel costs and World Cup-related demand. Excluding gasoline, however, inflation remained considerably more subdued, with falling rents, accommodation costs and vehicle prices providing offsets. Overall, the report was somewhat hotter than expected but heavily influenced by energy-related pressures, leaving the Bank of Canada in neutral territory for now while adding to market expectations for a potential rate hike later this year.The Empire Manufacturing Index jumped to 20.6 in August, well above the 11.0 estimate and up from 15.6 in July, marking the strongest growth in New York manufacturing in more than four years. New orders remained solid and employment continued to expand, while the six-month outlook improved. However, rising prices paid, growing order backlogs, longer delivery times and worsening supply availability point to increasing cost and supply-chain pressures despite the strong headline reading.The NAHB Housing Market Index rose to 35 in August, above the 33 estimate and up from 34 in July, signaling a modest improvement in homebuilder sentiment. Current single-family sales improved to 39, while expectations for sales over the next six months held at 43 and prospective buyer traffic remained weak at 23. Despite the uptick, sentiment remains deeply depressed, with elevated mortgage rates and rising long-term Treasury yields continuing to weigh heavily on housing demand and affordability. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was 34Details:Current single family home sales 39 versus 37 in JulyHome sales over next 6 months 43  versus 43 in July Index of prospective buyers 23 versus 23 in JulyUS 30-year yields hit a fresh cycle high today so that's not going to help the housing market. The economy continues to tick along so consumers may eventually get used to +6% mortgages as that's not something that's going away any time soon. Overall, these numbers are in a deep recession and it's a part of the economy that's in terrible shape despite the uptick this month. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Some comments from a senior Iranian official (unnamed), cited by Reuters:Iran has decided to shift its policy from defensive to a 'fully offensive one'Pressuring US or relying on mediators to reach a lasting peace is not realisticHas set a deadline of a few weeks for a full implementation of the MOUAll entities will be prepared to escalate tensions in the region if diplomacy failsIran will not wait for US to continue the naval blockade indefinitelyThere is some inflamatory rhetroric here but there's clearly still some diplomacy in play. Trump is also threatening to bomb Oman if it gets in the way. It's hard to see any positive end to this but the market won't care until oil hits $100 or $150. WTI was last up $0.83 to $83.02. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US Empire Manufacturing surver results shows:Prior month 15.60NY Fed Manufacturing index 20.60 vs 11.00 estimate. Details: New orders 17.3 vs 22.2 last monthPrices Paid 58.6 vs 52.3 last monthPrices received 22.7 vs 27.6 last monthEmployment 9.3 vs 11.4 last month. Average employee workweek 6.9 versus 2.8 last monthShipments 11.7 vs 24.4 last month. Unfilled orders 15.5 versus 5.0 last month.Delivery time 20.6 versus 13.0 last month.Inventories -5.2 versus 4.0 last month.Supply availability -13.4 versus -10.0 last monthLooking 6 months forward the survey showed: General business conditions 32.1 versus 27.9 last month. New orders 37.1 versus 33.2 last month.Shipments 33.7 versus 30.6 last monthprices paid 57.7 versus 53.0 last month.Prices received 48.7 versus 41.9 last month.Employment 28.2 versus 14.4 last month.Average employee workweek 1.0 versus 2.0 last month.Capital expenditures 16.5 versus 15.0 last month.Supply availability -9.3 versus -8.0 last month.Inventories 7.2 versus 10.0 last month.Delivery time 7.2 versus -4.0 last month.Unfilled orders 19.6 versus -3.0 last monthFrom NY Fed economic research advisor Richard Deitz:“New York State manufacturing activity increased at its fastest pace in over four years in August. Employment continued to pick up modestly. However, delivery times were substantially longer and supply availability continued to worsen.” New orders remained strong at 17.3, while shipments came in at 11.7, signaling solid demand and production. Unfilled orders jumped 11 points to 15.5, indicating a growing backlog. Delivery times rose sharply to 20.6, suggesting significant delays. Inventories declined during the month. Supply conditions deteriorated, with the supply availability index falling to -13.4. Bottom line: New York manufacturing showed strong growth and healthy demand in August, but rising backlogs, longer delivery times, and worsening supply availability point to increasing supply-chain pressures. That was reflective in the Prices Paid index moving higher, although prices received did fall.  This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was +2.8%CPI m/m +0.5% vs +0.4% expected (prior was -0.4%)BOC core +0.2% m/m vs +0.1% priorBOC core +2.3% y/y vs +2.1% priorCPI median +2.0% vs +1.9% expectedCPI trim +1.9% vs +1.8% expectedCPI common +2.7% vs +2.6% priorCanadian inflation has been tracking the rise in oil prices but is insulated somewhat by falling home prices and rents in some parts of the country. The Bank of Canada looks to be firmly in neutral territory at the moment but with the chance of a hike by December rising to 70% and 65 bps of hikes priced in over the next year.For this report, prices for gasoline grew at a faster rate in July of +25.7% y/y compared with June at +20.5% y/y. In a related move, prices for travel tours rose at a faster pace in July (+15.2%) compared with June (+6.8%), likely also aided by the World Cup boost. There are more concrete signs of inflation hitting airfares as well as they're up 12.0% versus 9.6% in June.The bulk of inflation remains in transportation but food and recreation are also adding.If you exclude gasoline, the picture looks benign but that little kink in gasoline prices was a gasoline holiday announced by the Carney environment that's set to end on Sept 7.In terms of m/m granularity, Gasoline +3.6% — the biggest contributor by farTravel tours +11.3% — World CupAir transportation +9.0% — higher jet fuel costs feeding throughTelephone services +3.4% -- The telecom price war finally ending?Fresh fruit +4.7% — the biggest July m/m move since 2011, driven by berries and melonsSo this is a miss but it looks like it's mostly Iran related. There are some downside offsets too:Rent -0.5%Traveller accommodation -4.0%Passenger vehicle purchases -0.4%Women's clothing -1.8%Fresh vegetables -2.6% This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Dollar comes under pressure to start the new weekIran reaffirms that talks have not yet begun with the USChina retail sales disappoint in July, industrial output slows while new home prices extend declinesChina stats bureau says July economic activity affected by extreme weather conditions, among other factorsNo major US data releases but this week will feature a big test on consumer healthMarkets:AUD leads, USD lags on the dayEuropean indices mostly a little higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%WTI crude oil up 0.5% to $82.77Gold up 0.6% to $4,402US 10-year yields up 1 bps to 4.686%Bitcoin up 0.9% to $63,603It was a quieter session as markets continue to assess the Middle East situation, while also weighing up the Fed outlook ahead of Jackson Hole next week.There won't be any major US economic data releases on the calendar this week, so traders will be left to their own devices for the most part in figuring things out.The US-Iran stalemate continues but the dollar is seen moving lower on the day, helped by a couple of technical pushes. EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.1590 after briefly touching a high of 1.1615 earlier. That comes with AUD/USD also moving to a fresh two-month high of 0.7125, up 0.6% on the day. Meanwhile, USD/JPY stays more muted and is down just 0.1% to 159.20.The overall risk mood is keeping steadier, with tech shares looking for a bounce to start the new week. European indices are lightly changed while S&P 500 futures are up 0.1%, with Nasdaq futures up 0.5%. This week, we will see major retailers in the US report earnings so that will be a checkpoint for the US consumer.Elsewhere, the bond market is not seeing too much action with 10-year yields in the US down just 1 bps to 4.686% - still keeping at the highs for the most part.In the commodities space, WTI crude oil is up 0.5% to $82.77 while gold is up 0.6% to $4,402 in keeping thereabouts with the same levels seen last week. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

No talks have begun with the USAnd they won't because of US violations of memorandum of understandingThere is no mention of a 60-day deadline in the text of the memorandum of understandingIran will never formulate policies under pressure or time limitsThe agreement stipulated a 60-day period for two main issuesThat being "lifting sanctions" and "nuclear issues", which could be extendedThe violations of the memorandum of understanding mean 60-day timeline became irrelevantThere is plenty of talk about the ceasefire agreement and/or memorandum of understanding expiring over the weekend. Yes, the one that was signed back in late June. But as Iran is making it clear, that 60-day timeline is no longer relevant as it was only after a few weeks after the signing that the agreement fell apart. It was pretty clear cut at the time that everything had fell apart but still, there are some parties trying to tie this all into a big thing.The agreement at the time was supposed to outline the conditions that must be upheld for the next 60 days so that nuclear talks can take place. And those conditions included Iran "reopening" the Strait of Hormuz, the US lifting its naval blockade, Iran seeing some sanctions being lifted, and a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.As mentioned back then, it was a case that everything would fall apart if just one of those conditions failed to be upheld. And as we all know, it was always just going to be a matter of time. So, it was proven to be as well.Fast forward to today, we're pretty much sitting back at a place where we were back in June before the agreement was signed. And we're still no closer to any agreement, especially on nuclear talks, than we were back then too. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The spokesperson of China's statistics bureau is out saying that July economic activity was affected by external uncertainties and also extreme weather conditions, among other factors, amid the poor report here.Adding that Beijing will step up counter-cyclical policy adjustments and expand domestic demand as part of efforts to bolster economic activity.It is interesting that they put the timing of the release to right after the market close but then leave it to the statistics bureau to offer up commentary on making effort to improve domestic demand. Typically, you'd see the economy and/or commerce ministry do that. And the timing of the daily briefings do line up, but yeah.In any case, China will continue to try and talk the talk in bolstering domestic demand conditions but things don't look bright to start the third quarter of the year. And that follows from the already markedly weakening economic growth seen in the second quarter already.The credit data from last week just piles on top of the one today: China new bank loans contract again in July, the second time this year This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The slate of July economic data:July retail sales +0.6% vs +1.5% y/y expectedPrior +1.0%July industrial output +4.5% vs +4.8% y/y expectedPrior +5.3%July fixed-asset investment -6.7% vs -6.0% y/y expectedPrior -5.7%July property investment -19.2% y/yPrior -18.0%July new home prices -0.1% m/mPrior -0.1%July new home prices -3.2% y/yPrior -3.3%Soft numbers all around and they are pretty bad, even for recent bad-news-from-China standards. The deepening declines in fixed-asset and property investments continue to signal that the overall market is struggling hard. And even the supposed one bright spot i.e. retail sales was very much a disappointment. That is despite Beijing's efforts to prop up activity through the likes of consumer trade-in programmes.As mentioned earlier, domestic demand conditions remain in the dumps and the data above continues to underscore that sentiment for the most part.It's a poor set of numbers all in all, which is arguably the reason why Beijing did not want them released during market hours. Chinese indices closed over 1% higher today to roughly one-month highs but with data like this, the gains today may also be in part due to some buying by the 'plunge protection team'. That to try and make things look nicer and distract from the terrible report above.The data above points to further trouble on the ground in China to start Q3 2027, which follows from a poor showing in the previous quarter. For some context, China's Q2 GDP saw a 4.3% year-on-year expansion - the weakest since 2022 - and missed on expectations of 4.5%. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The week ahead will not feature any major economic data releases in the US. That unless you want to count the Philly Fed manufacturing index and the weekly jobless claims report. But even so, there will be a lot of focus on what is happening in the US - in particular Wall Street.After big tech earnings helped to salvage things in the first half of August, it's now over major retail giants to take over next. And this will offer much insight on the overall health of the US consumer with discretionary spending and/or inflation fatigue coming under heavy focus.Here's the list of names to note:18 August (Tuesday): Home Depot19 August (Wednesday): Target, Lowe's, TJX20 August (Thursday): WalmartAs usual, Walmart will be the main one to watch on consumer behaviour patterns alongside offering up an indication of how the US consumer is holding up at the moment. Besides that, Target will also be a focus to take stock of discretionary spending and how middle-class consumers are balancing their expenditure and budget.Apart from consumption behaviours, there will also be heavy scrutiny on the update from major retailers on supply chain disruptions/costs as well as inventory management. All of that will play into the inflation debate, so it is one to be wary about.But overall, these earnings have to be paired with the "hard" US economic data that we saw from last week. That being the CPI, PPI, and retail sales data.I would argue that the earnings may not be too impactful in general but after the softer retail sales numbers from last week, it will be important to see if that is anything more than just a minor hiccup for the US consumer. In turn, that will also factor into play in setting the tone ahead of the next Fed meeting in September. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

In case you missed it earlier: China delays July economic data release to late afternoon slotThe key figures will be for industrial output, retail sales, fixed-asset investment and property prices. All of this put together will offer up a picture of how the economic momentum in China is holding up at the start of the third quarter this year.What is interesting is that instead of delaying it by a day or anything, they are deciding to move it to 0700 GMT instead.This typically coincides with speech timings for China's economy, finance, and/or commerce ministry. That is when they will typically go about their daily remarks and speak about relevant and pertinent issues from day to day. So, do they see a need to justify/defend something here?What is also interesting is that the timing of the data release will also coincide with the close of China's stock market hours.So, is it all planned in a way so as to not disrupt the market flow and potentially the reaction to the numbers? Or is China cooking up something entirely different? It remains to be seen.In terms of data expectations, industrial production and fixed-asset investment are estimated to weaken slightly in July. The former recorded a +5.3% y/y reading in June but is expected to fall to +4.8% y/y in July. Meanwhile, the latter was seen at -5.7% y/y in June and is expected to decline further to -6.0% y/y in July.It is only retail sales that is expected to offer a more resilient showing, with the estimate seen at +1.5% y/y in July compared to the +1.0% y/y reading in June. That being said, it likely owes to substantiative measures by Beijing such as consumer trade-in programmes. So, it's not a clear signal that domestic demand is keeping more robust.In terms of domestic demand conditions, the picture painted by new bank loans offers a better indictment of China's current situation. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

China's delayed July data looms as markets eye demand and PBOC's yuan stanceBloomberg says dark trade oil shuttles are the reason Iran war hasn't spiked oil pricesBig Tech's AI spending is $3 trillion bigger than balance sheets showYen edges higher as traders push back Fed rate hike bets, shrug off soft GDPSingapore NODX growth holds above 20% for fourth straight month in JulyPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7873 (vs. estimate at 6.7382)Japan Q2 GDP growth undershoots forecasts, complicating BOJ's hike timelineChina's Securities Daily warns against chasing gold at current highsUK data - Housing slump and hiring freeze cloud outlookMore NZ data: Retail card spending (July) +1.3% m/m (prior -1.4%)Bessent eyes Iran economic squeeze, but Chinese teapot ties limit optionsNZ services sector holds above breakeven for second month as PMI eases to 50.6 (prior 50.9)China delays July economic data release to late afternoon slotTrump orders cuts to South Korea drills, links move to cost of Iran warGoldman Sachs: labour market "not that interesting" as inflation dominates Fed debateOil- weekend recap & what's ahead: Iran vows to keep Hormuz shut, Trump tells Americans to accept high gas pricesMonday open indicative forex prices, 17 August 2026 - little change from late FridayWeekend:Bitcoin analysis shows what bulls need to do next to end this bearish 2026Stock earnings: 3 Key lessons for investors and tradersWhy Retail Traders Are Rethinking Traditional Prop FirmsFriday:investingLive Americas FX news wrap 14 Aug: Stocks finish mixed as yields rise and the dollar fallsSummary:Oil traded in a narrow range as US-Iran talks remained stalled and Hormuz shipping continued at a trickle, with no tankers moving oil on Friday.Iran said the Strait of Hormuz will stay shut until the US "accepts defeat," while Trump told Americans over the weekend to expect higher gasoline prices.IRGC Political Deputy Yadollah Javani said Iran's actions so far have been defensive but could become offensive, while Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated that any reopening of the strait remains on Iran's terms.Japan's Q2 GDP grew a weaker than expected 0.3% q/q (1.1% annualised), but the yen firmed toward 159 to the dollar as traders instead focused on fading Fed rate hike expectations.The dollar broadly lost ground following last week's data flow, including a soft US retail sales print on Friday.Singapore's July non-oil domestic exports rose 24.2% y/y, just shy of forecast, extending a fourth straight month of growth above 20% on AI-linked electronics demand.Asia-Pacific stocks traded mixed in quiet holiday-thinned trade, with South Korean markets closed and uncertainty building with the expiry of the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire.Oil prices moved in a narrow range between small gains and losses on Monday, with US-Iran talks still stalled and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continuing only in trickle volumes. No tankers moved oil through the strait on Friday, according to tracking firms, and negotiations showed no sign of resuming as the new week began.Tehran maintained its hard line over the weekend. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Saturday that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until Washington accepts what he characterised as its defeat, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran had not yet decided whether to resume talks with the US and set conditions for shipping to resume through the waterway. IRGC Political Deputy Yadollah Javani said Iran's actions to date have been defensive in nature but could take on an offensive character going forward. President Trump, addressing a rally on Friday, said Americans should be prepared to accept somewhat higher gasoline prices and floated the possibility of eventually declaring the strait US territory.In Asia, Japan's economy expanded 0.3% quarter on quarter in the April to June period, well below the 0.5% forecast, with annualised growth of 1.1% missing expectations of 2.0% as weak capital expenditure and flat consumption weighed on domestic demand. Despite the soft print, the yen edged higher against the dollar, rising to just under 159, a second consecutive day of gains, as traders focused more on pushed-back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this year than on the domestic data. The move came alongside broader dollar weakness following last week's data flow, including a soft US retail sales report on Friday.Singapore's non-oil domestic exports rose 24.2% year on year in July, just below the 25% forecast, marking a fourth consecutive month of growth above 20% as AI-linked electronics demand continued to offset weaker non-electronics shipments.Asia-Pacific equities traded mixed following a quiet weekend for macro newsflow, with South Korean markets closed for a public holiday and investors weighing uncertainty as the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire period approaches its expiry.---Note, still to come - China data due at 3pm beijing time, delayed today:7:00 GMT (8 hours behind Beijing) 3:00 a.m. US Eastern Time (EDT) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The unusual afternoon timing already flagged for Monday's release means Chinese risk pricing will be concentrated later in the Asian session than usual, leaving European markets to open without full clarity on the data and adding a layer of positioning risk around the open. Weak July credit figures released ahead of the activity data reinforce the case for a soft print, with new yuan loans contracting and both aggregate financing and loan growth slowing, all pointing to still-tepid demand for credit even as authorities continue rolling out consumer trade-in support. Any confirmation of broader deceleration in industrial output or investment would sharpen focus on whether the PBOC leans toward further easing, while also testing how comfortable policymakers remain with recent CNY strength, a key swing factor for regional currencies and commodities tied to Chinese demand such as copper and crude.--- Soft credit numbers are raising the stakes for China's delayed July activity data, with investors watching for signs Beijing is ready to ease further.Summary:China's National Bureau of Statistics shifted the release of July activity data, including industrial output, retail sales, fixed asset investment and property prices, to 3pm Beijing time on Monday, an unusual scheduling change first reported by Bloomberg.The delay pushes the data into the Asian afternoon session, meaning European markets will open before the figures cross, adding to positioning uncertainty around the open.Fixed asset investment is expected to stay subdued, weighed down by continued softness in the property sector, following a weak second quarter GDP print.New yuan loans fell by 340 billion yuan in July, while growth in aggregate financing slowed to 7.4% and RMB loan growth moderated to 5.2%, reinforcing expectations of soft credit demand.Key questions for markets are whether domestic demand is beginning to stabilise and whether the PBOC remains comfortable with further CNY strength.A downside surprise in the activity data could weigh on regional risk sentiment and pressure Asian currencies closely linked to China's growth outlook, while a confirmed slowdown could raise the odds of further PBOC easing. China's National Bureau of Statistics has pushed back the release of its July activity data to 3pm Beijing time on Monday, an unusual scheduling shift that has drawn attention from investors already bracing for a soft set of numbers. As reported by Bloomberg, the delay pushes the data drop into the Asian afternoon trading window, meaning European markets will open before the figures cross and North American markets will still be in their pre-market hours, adding an extra layer of positioning risk around the open.The package due for release covers industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment and residential property prices, all closely watched gauges of how China's economy is faring in the second half of the year following a weak second quarter GDP print. Fixed asset investment is expected to remain subdued, weighed down by the ongoing downturn in the property sector, while industrial output is projected to show some deceleration from June's pace.The data lands against a backdrop of softening credit conditions. New yuan loans fell by 340 billion yuan in July, while growth in aggregate financing eased to 7.4% and RMB loan growth moderated to 5.2%, both pointing to still-fragile demand for credit even as authorities continue to roll out consumer trade-in incentives aimed at supporting retail spending. Retail sales are expected to hold up relatively better than other components, helped by that targeted government support, though the broader picture remains one of uneven momentum across the economy.The two central questions for markets are whether China's domestic demand is beginning to find a floor, and whether the People's Bank of China remains comfortable allowing further yuan strength given the softer growth backdrop. A confirmed broader slowdown could raise the odds of additional PBOC easing, including a cut to reserve requirements or benchmark interest rates, to keep full-year growth targets within reach. Given China's outsized role in global demand for industrial commodities, any downside surprise in Monday's figures carries the potential to ripple into copper and crude oil pricing, regional equity indexes and Asian currencies more broadly, all of which remain closely tied to signals on the health of Chinese growth.3:00 p.m. Beijing Time = 07:00 GMT (8 hours behind Beijing) = 3:00 a.m. US Eastern Time (EDT) (12 hours behind Beijing).The traditional morning release slot (typically 10:00 a.m. Beijing time) corresponds to 02:00 GMT / 10:00 p.m. US Eastern Time (previous day). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The yen's modest advance despite a clear GDP miss underscores how currency direction is currently being driven more by shifting Fed expectations than by domestic Japanese data, with fed funds futures now implying a two-thirds chance the Fed holds rates next month. That repricing of US policy risk is doing more to narrow the yield differential than anything coming out of Tokyo, leaving the yen's gains modest and still contained within its recent range rather than signalling a decisive break. The soft GDP print itself is unlikely to alter the BOJ's own tightening path given underlying inflation remains well above target, meaning the policy divergence story between a cautious Fed and a still-hawkish BOJ continues to underpin the currency, even if Monday's move was driven mostly from the US side of the equation.---Earlier:Japan Q2 GDP growth undershoots forecasts, complicating BOJ's hike timeline--- The yen is gaining more from fading Fed rate hike bets than from anything happening in Japan's own economy right now.Summary:The yen strengthened 0.2% against the US dollar to 159.055, a second consecutive day of modest gains, though it remained within its trading range of the past week.The move came even as Japan's Q2 GDP data disappointed, with the economy expanding an annualised 1.1% against expectations of 2.0%, and quarter on quarter growth of 0.3% versus 0.5% expected.Fed funds futures now imply a 66.9% chance the Federal Reserve holds rates at its next meeting, with traders pushing back the timing of any further hike this year.Growth in Japan was held back by a 1.2% quarterly decline in capital expenditure against expectations for a 0.4% gain, and flat private consumption versus a forecast 0.5% rise, as higher prices weighed on household spending.External demand outperformed, contributing 0.5 percentage points to GDP against an expected 0.3, supported by a yen that remains historically weak.Analysts at Capital Economics (cited by Reuters) described the GDP details as mixed, noting the government's efforts to limit pass-through from higher energy costs and a jump in government consumption pointing to early effects from Takaichi's expansionary fiscal policy.The GDP deflator held at 2.6% year on year in Q2, well above the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target, a factor still expected to support the case for a BOJ rate hike in September. The yen edged higher against the dollar on Monday, largely shrugging off a weaker than expected Japanese GDP report as traders instead focused on pushing back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this year. The currency rose 0.2% to 159.0 (just under) per dollar, a second consecutive day of modest gains, though it remained firmly within the trading range it has held over the past week.The move came despite data showing Japan's economy expanded at an annualised pace of just 1.1% in the April to June quarter, well short of the 2.0% rate economists had expected, with quarter on quarter growth of 0.3% also missing the 0.5% forecast. Growth was weighed down by a 1.2% quarterly decline in capital expenditure, a sharp reversal from the 0.4% gain that had been anticipated, alongside flat private consumption against expectations for a 0.5% increase, as elevated prices continued to weigh on household spending. External demand was a bright spot, contributing 0.5 percentage points to GDP versus an expected 0.3, a trend analysts expect to persist given the yen remains historically weak and continues to support Japanese exporters.Despite the soft headline numbers, the miss is unlikely to derail the Bank of Japan's expected rate hike in September, given the GDP deflator held at 2.6% year on year in the second quarter, comfortably above the central bank's 2% inflation target. Analysts at Capital Economics characterised the details of the report as a mixed bag, noting that the government has so far limited the pass-through from higher energy costs into the broader economy, while a jump in government consumption suggests Prime Minister Takaichi's expansionary fiscal policies are beginning to have an effect.Instead of reacting primarily to the domestic data, currency markets appeared more focused on the shifting US rate outlook, with fed funds futures now pricing a 66.9% probability that the Federal Reserve holds rates steady at its next meeting. That repricing has done more to narrow the yield gap between the two economies than Monday's GDP report, leaving the yen's advance driven largely by developments on the American side of the equation. With the BOJ still seen as leaning toward further tightening given inflation running well above target, the broader policy divergence between a increasingly cautious Fed and a still hawkish Bank of Japan looks set to remain the dominant driver of yen direction in the sessions ahead. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The July print, though a touch below the Reuters poll median, extends a run of exceptionally strong export growth that has already prompted a sharp upgrade to Singapore's official 2026 trade forecast, reinforcing the view that AI-linked electronics demand remains the dominant driver of regional trade momentum. With shipments broadening across nine of the top ten export markets rather than being concentrated in one corridor, the data supports the case that Singapore's export strength is structural rather than a single-quarter blip, a useful data point for traders positioning around broader Asian growth exposure. The result also arrives against the backdrop of last week's upgraded GDP and export forecasts, meaning today's figure is more confirmatory than surprising, likely limiting any outsized reaction in the Singapore dollar. The ongoing divergence between resilient electronics shipments and softer non-electronics trade remains worth watching as a gauge of how narrowly based the current export boom is.--- Singapore's export engine keeps running hot on AI-linked demand, even if July's pace came in just shy of expectations.Earlier:Singapore doubles 2026 growth outlook to 4.5-5.5% on tech cycle upgrade---Summary:Singapore's non-oil domestic exports rose 24.2% year on year in July, close to the Reuters poll forecast of 25% and marking a fourth consecutive month of growth above 20%.Robust AI-related demand for electronics drove the gain, even as non-electronics shipments declined over the same period.Exports rose to nine of Singapore's top ten markets, led by shipments to the United States, China and Taiwan, according to Enterprise Singapore.The release follows Enterprise Singapore's upgrade last week to its full-year 2026 non-oil domestic export forecast, raised to 14% to 16% growth from a prior 3% to 5%.It also follows last week's Q2 GDP data showing the economy grew 5.9% year on year, prompting the Trade Ministry to lift its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.5% to 5.5% from 2.0% to 4.0%.Officials have attributed the improved outlook to a stronger than expected AI investment boom offsetting a less severe than feared drag from the Middle East conflict. Singapore's non-oil domestic exports rose 24.2% year on year in July, government data showed on Monday, extending a run of growth above 20% to a fourth consecutive month even as the reading came in just shy of the 25% median forecast in a Reuters poll. The growth was driven largely by robust AI-related demand for electronics, which continued to outweigh a decline in shipments of non-electronics goods.Enterprise Singapore said exports rose to nine of the city-state's top ten markets in July, with the United States, China and Taiwan leading the gains. The broad-based nature of the increase suggests the current export strength is not confined to a single trading partner, lending support to the view that AI-linked demand is lifting Singapore's trade performance across multiple corridors rather than in isolated pockets.The July figure lands just a week after Enterprise Singapore sharply upgraded its full-year 2026 forecast for non-oil domestic export growth, lifting it to a range of 14% to 16% from a prior estimate of just 3% to 5%. That revision came alongside separate data showing Singapore's economy grew 5.9% year on year in the second quarter, beating both the Reuters poll estimate and the earlier official advance reading, prompting the Trade Ministry to raise its full-year GDP growth forecast to 4.5% to 5.5% from 2.0% to 4.0%.Officials have attributed the broader upgrade to two offsetting forces: a global AI investment boom that has proven considerably stronger than expected, and an impact from the Middle East conflict that has so far been less severe than initially feared. The improved outlook has applied specifically to AI and technology linked sectors of the economy, while those more directly exposed to Middle East related supply disruptions have continued to lag.Taken together with last week's data, July's export figures reinforce the picture of Singapore as a regional bellwether for how the AI investment cycle is reshaping growth expectations, even as geopolitical risk from the Middle East continues to weigh on other parts of the global economy. With export growth running well ahead of the levels implied by Enterprise Singapore's original forecast range, the July reading suggests the AI-driven tailwind identified last week remains firmly intact heading into the second half of the year. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.