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Dow industrial average and S&P close at new record levels.Fed's Miran: Policy has become much more restrictive this yearMore from Hamas: agrees to release all hostages, alive or bodiesHamas handed over its response to Trump's Gaza plan to mediatorTrump considering significant tariff relief for US auto productionWhat key events and releases are scheduled for next week (some subject to the US shutdown)Crude oil futures settle $0.40 higher at $60.88Fed's Jefferson: Expect disinflation to resume next yearFed's Logan: Risks that tariffs effects are more prolongedBitcoin is approaching all-time highs Buyer racing the digital currency to the upside.European indices close mostly higher and with solid gains for the weekSaudi Arabia is pushing for a large increase in OPEC+ production this weekend - reportChina wants to build factories in the United States in a trade dealLagarde says 'we are in a good place' on ratesTrump sets 6 pm ET Sunday deadline for Israel-Hamas dealISM US September services PMI 50.0 vs 51.7 expectedCanada's Carney to make working visit to Washington on TuesdayUS September final global services PMI 54.2 vs 53.9 prelimFed's Miran: I am expecting significant disinflation to services inflationHere is a US jobs number worth watchingBank of America now sees the Fed cutting in OctoberFed's Goolsbee: We're getting deterioration on both sides of the mandate at the same timeinvestingLive European FX news wrap: A lacklustre sessionHow have interest rates expectations changed after this week's events?Day 3 of the government shutdown with no agreement in sight. Senators left for the weekend and will not return until Monday.The US dollar was mostly lower. Versus the major currencies, the US dollar:EUR, -0.21%JPY +0.16%GBP -0.32%CHF -0.26%CAD -0.04%AUD -0.05%NZD -0.24%Today was the scheduled day for US employment data. That was postponed until next Friday at the earliest. S&P nonmanufacturing PMI data and ISM nonmanufacturing data was released as they are privately calculated.The final reading for U.S. September S&P global services PMI came in at 54.2, up from the preliminary 53.9 and slightly below August’s 54.5. While activity in services remains robust, the report showed signs of softening demand, with companies growing more hesitant to add staff. Backlogs rose for the seventh consecutive month, indicating capacity pressures. Cost pressures also persisted, with tariffs continuing to push up input prices. Analysts interpreted the data as consistent with solid Q3 GDP growth—around 2.5 % annualized—driven by strength in finance, tech, and consumer services. However, they warned that firms’ reluctance to hire more aggressively may point to underlying labor market frictions.The ISM U.S. Services PMI for September was not as positive as it came in at 50.0, well below expectations of 51.7 and down from the prior 52.0. Business activity dipped to 49.9, signaling contraction, while new orders slumped to 50.4 from 56.0. Employment dropped to 47.2, marking a fourth straight month in contraction. On the cost side, prices paid pushed higher at 69.4, and several sectors flagged tariff-related input pressures—especially in food, electronics, and construction materials. Overall, the data points to softening demand and weaker labor conditions in the services sector, even as inflation pressures persist.There were a number of Fed officials speaking today including Fed's Goolsbee, Feds Miran, Feds Jefferson, and Fed's Logan. Jefferson and Miran were more dovish. Logan and Goolsbee were more cautious:Fed’s Chicago President Austan Goolsbee cautioned that the central bank is in a “sticky spot,” with both sides of its mandate deteriorating at the same time—services inflation remains elevated while the labor market shows signs of weakening. He warned against front-loading too many rate cuts, saying it is risky to assume inflation will simply fade. Goolsbee also stressed that the longer the Fed goes without access to key inflation and labor data due to the shutdown, the more “blind” its decision-making becomes. Overall, he urged caution, emphasizing that Fed actions must reflect the shifting balance between inflation pressures and job market softnessFed’s Stephen Miran struck a confident tone on inflation, saying he expects significant disinflation in services inflation going forward. He argued that the neutral rate has fallen to the low end of estimates, stressing that forward-looking measures are more reliable than backward-looking data. Housing costs remain a central factor in his outlook, with immigration shifts expected to ease pressures over time. Miran noted that policy has already become much more restrictive this year, giving the Fed ample room to cut rates if needed, with the zero lower bound still far off. He emphasized that the economy is strong, supported by supply-side policies, and that monetary policy should adapt to the substantial changes since last year. While acknowledging relative price changes are always present, he separated the Fed’s work from Trump’s inflation goals and added a sharp critique of Larry Summers, saying he has been wrong on most forecasts this year.Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said he expects disinflation to resume next year, noting that the Fed’s recent rate cut has moved policy closer to neutral while still keeping a balanced stance. He highlighted that a decline in net immigration has been a key factor preventing unemployment from rising more sharply. At the same time, he pointed to trends across multiple data series that suggest the job market is gradually softening, reinforcing the case for a cautious but steady approach to policy.Cleveland Fed President Logan cautioned that there are risks tariff effects could prove more prolonged than expected, warning this could keep goods prices elevated even after the immediate impact fades. She said monetary policy is currently only modestly restrictive and stressed the need to remain alert to labor market risks, while also highlighting persistent pressures in non-housing services inflation, which has remained elevated and sticky. Logan has recently argued that inflation is trending higher even as the job market gradually cools, and she continues to position herself on the more hawkish side of the Fed, favoring keeping rates steady or hiking further — a stance that tends to support the US dollar.Bitcoin surged toward record levels, rising to a high of $123,966, just shy of the all-time high of $124,517 set in August. The rally has been fueled by a combination of lower yields, stronger equities, and even safe-haven flows tied to the government shutdown, which is driving some investors away from traditional currencies. Since bottoming last Friday at $108,676, Bitcoin has gained more than 13%. A break above the prior record would open the door toward at least $127,000 as the next technical target. Analysts remain highly bullish: Citibank projects a base case of $181,000 within a year, with a bullish scenario of $231,000, while Standard Chartered sees a surge toward $200,000 by year-end, with $135,000 as the next near-term threshold.Crude oil futures settled $0.40 higher at $60.88 (+0.66%), rebounding slightly ahead of an expected OPEC+ production increase. The size of the hike remains under debate, with estimates ranging from ~140,000 bpd to over 400,000 bpd, as Saudi Arabia pushes for larger gains while Russia urges caution. Despite today’s modest rise, crude posted a sharp weekly loss of 6.61% (-$4.31), its steepest decline since June 23. From a technical perspective, prices closed below a key swing area between $61.45 and $61.94, leaving sellers in control unless the market can reclaim that zone to shift momentum back toward the upside. For the week, prices of crude oil fell by -6.74%, its largest decline since June 23 trading week.Over the weekend, either there will be peace in Israel or all hell will break loose. Let there be peace on earth.U.S. stocks ended the day mixed, with both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 closing at record highs, while the NASDAQ slipped after setting its own record yesterday. The Dow gained 238.56 points (+0.51%) to 46,758.28, the S&P edged up 0.44 points (+0.01%) to 6,715.79, the NASDAQ fell 63.54 points (-0.28%) to 22,780.51, and the Russell 2000 rose 17.69 points (+0.72%) to 2,476.17. For the week, all major indices advanced: Dow +1.10%, S&P +1.09%, NASDAQ +1.32%, and Russell 2000 +1.72%. Sector-wise, healthcare led with its best week since June 2022 (+6.82%), while technology (+2.25%) and utilities (+2.39%) also posted solid gains. On the downside, energy (-3.34%), communication services (-2.10%), and consumer discretionary (-0.81%) lagged.In the US debt market, yields closed day higher:2 year yield 3.575%, +2.7 basis points5 year yield 3.714%, +4.0 basis points10 year yield 4.119%, +2.9 basis points30 year yield 4.711%, +1.4 basis pointsFor the trading week:2-year yield fell -6.7 basis points5-year yield fell -4.8 basis points10-year yield fell -5.3 basis points30-year yield fell -3.5 basis points This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

It affirms its readiness to immediately engage in negotiations through mediators to discuss details of peace plan. Agrees to release all Israeli hostages alive were bodies, hundred Trump's Gaza proposal.Says appreciate Arab, Islamic, and international efforts as well as the efforts of Pres. Trump. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Earlier today Pres. Trump posted on Truth Social that Hamas had until Sunday at 6 PM to reach an agreement. He warned that if an agreement is not reached, "all HELL, like no one has ever seen before, will break out against Hamas". Hamas is reported to have handed over its response to Trump's Gaza plan to an the mediator. WIll it be enough? This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Republican Sen. Moreno, is saying that Pres. Trump is considering significant tariff relief for US auto production. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

What economic events or releases are due for release next week? The RBNZ will meet is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.75%.The FOMC meeting minutes are expected to be released at 2 PM Wednesday subject to cancellation because of the government shutdown.Hope is that the US nonfarm payrolls will be released on Friday, but to is subject to government reopening. Canada jobs report will be released on Friday. Also on Friday, preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment will be released as it is a privately generated economic release.Below is the some of the key events releases:Monday, Oct 6EUR: ECB President Lagarde Speaks – 1:00pm ETGBP: BOE Gov Bailey Speaks – 1:30pm ETTuesday, Oct 7CAD: Ivey PMI – 10:00am ET (Forecast 51.2, Previous 50.1)EUR: ECB President Lagarde Speaks – 12:10pm ETNZD: Official Cash Rate – 9:00pm ET (Forecast 2.75%, Previous 3.00%)NZD: RBNZ Rate Statement – 9:00pm ETJPY: BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks – Time TentativeWednesday, Oct 8EUR: ECB President Lagarde Speaks – 12:00pm ETUSD*: FOMC Meeting Minutes – 2:00pm ETThursday, Oct 9CNY: New Loans – Time Tentative (Forecast 590B)USD*: Unemployment Claims – Time Tentative (Forecast 225K, Previous 218K)USD*: Unemployment Claims – 8:30am ET (Forecast 233K)USD*: Fed Chair Powell Speaks – Time TentativeAUD: RBA Gov Bullock Speaks – 9:00pm ETFriday, Oct 10CAD: Employment Change – 8:30am ET (Forecast 2.8K, Previous -65.5K)CAD: Unemployment Rate – 8:30am ET (Forecast 7.2%, Previous 7.1%)USD*: Average Hourly Earnings m/m – Time Tentative (Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.3%)USD*: Non-Farm Employment Change – Time Tentative (Forecast 52K, Previous 22K)USD*: Unemployment Rate – Time Tentative (Forecast 4.3%, Previous 4.3%)USD: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment – 10:00am ET (Forecast 54.6, Previous 55.1)USD: Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations – 10:00am ET (Forecast 4.7%, Previous 4.7%)* U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. “Tentative” events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

OPEC meets this weekend and the size of an output increase is yet unclear but Saudi Arabia wants a larger share of the market, according to a Bloomberg report. Russia is pushing for a more-modest increase.Moscow would prefer 137K bpd like in September while Saudi figures floated include 274K, 411K and 548K bpd. The numbers on the higher end of the spectrum would wrap up the 'voluntary' cuts by year end.That would only leave a dubious 2 mbpd in spare capacity from the group, which many claim is optimistic and can't be quickly tapped, if at all. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Bloomberg is out with a very interesting report highlighting China's push for a trade deal. Beijing is hoping that the US will lower tariffs if it pledges to build massive factories in the United States.The proposals were first raised in Madrid last month and China floated investing $1 trillion. That compares to the $2.1 billion invested in the first half of 2025.If there is some kind of grand bargain here, it could reset thinking around inflation and global GDP, triggering a scramble for resources. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump is out with a new tweet about his Israel-Gaza peace effort.Hamas has been a ruthless and violent threat, for many years, in the Middle East! They have killed (and made lives unbearably miserable), culminating with the October 7th MASSACRE, in Israel, babies, woman, children, old people, and many young men and women, boys and girls, getting ready to celebrate their future lives together. As retribution for the October 7th attack on civilization, more than 25,000 Hamas “soldiers” have already been killed. Most of the rest are surrounded and MILITARILY TRAPPED, just waiting for me to give the word, “GO,” for their lives to be quickly extinguished. As for the rest, we know where and who you are, and you will be hunted down, and killed. I am asking that all innocent Palestinians immediately leave this area of potentially great future death for safer parts of Gaza. Everyone will be well cared for by those that are waiting to help. Fortunately for Hamas, however, they will be given one last chance! Great, powerful, and very rich Nations of the Middle East, and the surrounding areas beyond, together with the United States of America, have agreed, with Israel signing on, to PEACE, after 3000 years, in the Middle East. THIS DEAL ALSO SPARES THE LIVES OF ALL REMAINING HAMAS FIGHTERS! The details of the document are known to the WORLD, and it is a great one for ALL! We will have PEACE in the Middle East one way or the other. The violence and bloodshed will stop. RELEASES THE HOSTAGES, ALL OF THEM, INCLUDING THE BODIES OF THOSE THAT ARE DEAD, NOW! An Agreement must be reached with Hamas by Sunday Evening at SIX (6) P.M., Washington, D.C. time. Every Country has signed on! If this LAST CHANCE agreement is not reached, all HELL, like no one has ever seen before, will break out against Hamas. THERE WILL BE PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. Thank you for your attention to this matter! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMPThere is no way of telling which way this will go. I'd estimate that impacts for global markets are minimal either way. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 52.0Details:Business activity 49.9 vs 51.8 expected (prior was 52.0)Prices paid 69.4 vs. 69.2 last monthEmployment 47.2 vs. 46.5 last month -- fourth month in contractionNew orders 50.4 vs. 56.0 last monthSupplier deliveries 52.6 vs. 50.3 last monthInventories 47.8 vs. 53.2 last monthBacklog of orders 47.3 vs. 40.4 last monthExports 46.5 vs. 47.3 last monthImports 49.2 vs. 54.6 last monthFull reportThat new orders number is a problem, though it's more of a reversion to the range from Jan-July rather than a fresh deterioration. The employment number was a tad better but still well-below 50, which indicates a slow deterioration in employment in the absence of the non-farm payrolls report.Comments in the report:“We are beginning to see the impact of the tariffs impact our business, particularly for food products from India, China, and Southeast Asia, coffee from South America, and apparel and electronics from Asia. Our year-over-year cost increases are getting progressively greater.” [Accommodation & Food Services]“New residential construction continues to struggle in a tough market. Housing values remain high, and tariffs are beginning to be passed through on materials that are metal based. The pace of housing starts has been stagnant to slightly declining, as we head out of the summer building season.” [Construction]“Pharmacy costs continue to rise, and medical devices are being held at bay mainly due to contracts and continued negotiations where we have two to three sources for a given product.” [Health Care & Social Assistance]“Demand for artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud infrastructure remains very strong. Our primary focus this month was on increasing production throughput to begin clearing the significant order backlog built up over the summer. While new order intake has stabilized at a high level, the overall business outlook remains positive. We are still facing significant supply chain challenges, especially for advanced semiconductors and power components, with lead times remaining extended. Price pressures are still present but have not worsened compared to the previous month.” [Information]“Client demand in professional services remains steady, though decision-making timelines are lengthening due to continued economic uncertainty and interest-rate concerns. We are also seeing modest upward pressure on labor costs, which impacts both our internal resourcing and supplier pricing.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]“Growing apprehension regarding state efforts to reduce or eliminate property taxes that are a major revenue source for local governments. And continuing concern about future economic conditions, inflation, tariffs and their impact on increased prices.” [Public Administration]“The overall housing market remains stagnant, which has forced our company to be hyper-vigilant about costs. However, we are growing and increasing our market share despite the headwinds. Tariffs continue to inject an unnecessary level of uncertainty across the broader economy, and costs are now beginning to increase with the full effect of the tariffs now coming into play.” [Real Estate, Rental & Leasing]“Costs overall have stabilized, and we’ve not seen any interruptions in sourcing or shipments.” [Retail Trade]“We’ve had more tariff charges last month than in previous months.” [Utilities]“Business conditions continue to soften, even in markets that have historically been more resilient. Demand is simply weak.” [Wholesale Trade] This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Canada has been slowly rolling back counter-tariffs in the hope of getting a trade deal. So far there are no signs of progress but a deal can come together quickly.Generally, deputies make visits to negotiate and leaders make visits to get deals. Carney will meet with Trump at the White House.Canadian trade deputy Dominic LeBlanc has been more upbeat lately."Time will tell us if my optimism is misplaced," LeBlanc said Thursday.The release from the Prime Minister's office says:Today, the Prime Minister, Mark Carney, announced that he will travel to Washington, D.C., United States of America, on the evening of October 6, 2025, ahead of a working visit and meeting with the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump, on October 7.Canada and the U.S. each launched consultations last month that will inform preparations for the first joint review of CUSMA. The Prime Minister’s working visit will focus on shared priorities in a new economic and security relationship between Canada and the U.S.That doesn't sound like we should be bracing for a positive announcement. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prelim services were 53.9Prior services were 54.5Composite index 53.9 vs 53.6 prelimDespite evidence of ongoing capacity pressures – backlogs of work rose solidly for a seventh successive month in September – slightly softer rates of demand and activity growth led to some reluctance amongst US service companies to add to their staffing levelsThe ISM services data is due at the top of the hour.Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence “Service sector growth softened slightly in September but remained strong enough to round off an impressive performance over the third quarter a whole. Combined with sustained growth in the manufacturing sector, the expansion of service sector activity is indicative of robust third quarter annualized GDP growth of around 2.5%. “Growth is being fueled principally by rising financial services and tech sector activity, though we are also seeing more signs of improving demand for consumer-facing services such as leisure and recreation, likely linked in part to lower interest rates. Lower borrowing costs have also fed through to a broad- based improvement in business optimism about the outlook for the next 12 months. “Disappointingly, the improvement in business optimism failed to spur more jobs growth, with hiring almost stalling in a sign of further labor market malaise as companies often focused on running more efficiently amid uncertain trading conditions. “A further ongoing source of concern from the surveys are heightened cost pressures which survey respondents have attributed to tariffs. Input costs rose sharply again in September as import levies were seen to have again fed through from goods to services. However, rates charged for services rose at the slowest rate for five months in a welcome sign that some of these tariff price pressures in supply chains are starting to moderate.”There are some good signs here. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

We don't have a non-farm payrolls report to digest today but the jobs market is clearly weakening. A good measure of that is job postings from Indeed. This index is only 5 years old so that track record is mixed but it's turned lower lately as part of a steady deterioration. The question for the Fed is whether we can really have a low-hiring/low-firing economy or if the lack of hiring is a precursor to layoffs. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It's the first Friday of the month and normally that's a big one for markets as it means the non-farm payrolls report is released. Unfortunately, that won't be happening today due to the US government shutdown.It's a uniquely American phenomenon and utterly ridiculous as politicians on both sides continue to care about fiscal prudence while blowing out the deficit relentlessly. Trump yesterday floated $1000-$2000 tariff rebates for taxpayers due to tariffs and he's already pledged farmer bailouts -- all with money that was supposed to pay down deficits.For what it's worth, the consensus on non-farm payrolls is +50K and there's been a quick realization that's about all the US needs to keep unemployment steady due to changes to immigration and demographics. But that number is more art then science and the real number to watch going forward will be the unemployment rate, which was slated to remain steady at 4.3%.The good news is that the ISM services report is still coming out at 10 am ET. The employment component of that survey can be a decent correlate to jobs growth, though that correlation has been spotty since covid. Happy Friday. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

How have interest rates expectations changed after this week's events?ECB's Wunsch: We are in a good placeFed's Williams: Uncertainty and change will be with us for the foreseeable futureJapan will elect a new prime minister tomorrow, what to know?Eurozone August PPI -0.3% vs -0.1% m/m expectedUK September final services PMI 50.8 vs 51.9 prelimItaly August retail sales -0.1% vs +0.0% expectedEurozone September final services PMI 51.3 vs 51.4 prelimWhat are the main events for today?FX option expiries for 3 October 10am New York cutBOJ governor Ueda: The risk of us being behind the curve on inflation is not that bigHeads up: Fedspeak coming up in the day aheadNo non-farm payrolls makes for a less spicy end to the weekIt was a very lacklustre session with limited newsflow and low tier data releases. We got the final PMIs for the largest Eurozone economies and the UK and despite some lower revisions, the market didn't really move on that. The market moves more on new information i.e. on the Flash PMIs. We got a couple of central bank speakers but they didn't offer anything new in terms of monetary policy or economic outlook. BoJ Governor Ueda repeated the same old script which can be summed up with the usual line "to raise rates if economy, prices, move in line with forecasts". Fed's Williams didn't comment on monetary policy or economic outlook, while ECB's Wunsch just reaffirmed that the ECB is in a good place with the current policy stance, which is what they've been repeating for several weeks. In the markets it's been kind of the same boring mood with tight ranges as traders are left without key US data like the NFP report as the US government shutdown continues. We have only the private sector data for now with the ISM Services PMI coming up at 10:00 am ET.The US ISM Services PMI is expected at 51.7 vs 52.0 prior. The market will likely focus on the employment and price indices in the report. The combination of higher employment and lower price indices in the ISM Manufacturing PMI two days ago coincided with a rally in US stock markets. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Japan's ruling LDP party will go to the polls tomorrow to decide their next leader and who will be the next prime minister for the country. After the upper house election humiliation in July, incumbent prime minister Shigeru Ishiba has finally decided to step down. And so, now is the time for the party to try and win back public opinion with their next choice.So, who are the frontrunners heading into the vote tomorrow?The two heavyweight names are Sanae Takaichi and Shinjiro Koizumi. They are the leading favourites to win with the potential for it to end up going down to another runoff vote between the two.In fact, Takaichi was part of that last year as she only lost out to Ishiba in the runoff vote after having came out on top in the preliminary round. If she succeeds this round, she will be Japan's first ever female prime minister.Takaichi is often dubbed as Shinzo Abe's protégé and has a firm agenda of pushing for a return of "Abenomics". The current government has a more strict approach on the fiscal side of things but Takaichi will be one to pursue a more pro-stimulus approach. So, that is one to look out for.And at the same time, that could see her call for monetary policy to also stay looser which is a departure from what the BOJ has been pushing for in recent times.So, the potential "conflict" here is one to watch out for if Takaichi does indeed win out in the vote tomorrow.As for Koizumi, victory will see him become Japan's youngest prime minister in the post-war era. He is the son of popular former prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi, and he also finished third in last year's running.He holds a more moderate voice and wants to push forward with reforms to freshen up the party. But on market policy, he mainly just vowed to bolster productivity and wages in order to counter inflation.So, there might not be a big change here if he wins out. In other words, there will likely be less interference to the current stance of the BOJ.The other notable contender outside of these two is current chief Cabinet secretary, Yoshimasa Hayashi. He's not exactly regarded in the favourite category per se but could actually surprise in the votes tomorrow. He has garnered the reputation of being the 'handyman' in Japan's political circle, having occupied multiple key roles in the government when called upon.He's mostly just a steady hand though and it remains to be seen if that is what the party really needs in a time like this, especially since it is losing favour among the younger generation.But regardless of who wins out, there's going to be a lot of work that needs to be done. The immediate picture is having to stay aligned with the BOJ on policy steps and also having to deal with trade politics with the US. As for the longer-term outlook, there's still no solution to Japan's aging demographic and that is one that will continue to weigh on the economic future of the country day by day as time goes on without any significant change. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.