Forex News

Another disappointing earnings report from Target begs two questions:Is this a sign that US consumers are weak?Or that Target isn't executing?On the first point, it comes after Home Depot shares were beaten up yesterday on a soft report. With Home Depot, the company blamed the lack of hurricanes and other storms in the quarter and a soft housing market. That's understandable as the US housing industry has been mired in a brutal recession.Does Target tell us that it's more than just housing and weather? Here is what the company had to say:"Many of the themes remain largely consistent with what we've shared in prior quarters. Guests are choiceful, stretching budgets and prioritizing value. They're spending where it matters most, especially in food, essentials, and beauty," Target chief commercial officer Rick Gomez said on a call with reporters.For the fourth quarter of 2025, the Company is maintaining its expectation of a low-single digit decline in sales but for the full-year, the company cut its earnings guidance to $7.70-$8.70.Overall revenue and same-store sales were soft. The SSS metric has declined for five straight quarters, suggesting it's more that just the consumer and indicates problems with the brand. The metric fell 2.7% in Q3, including a 3.7% drop in household essentials.The company is also spending to upgrade its stores as it tries to recapture its premium-value brand.Ultimately, I don't think this is going to sway the market's view on the consumer but Walmart reports tomorrow and that will tell us more. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Smallest trade deficit of the yearPrior was $78.3 billion (revised to $78.2B) This is ancient history but it should lead to a slight tick up in Q3 GDP trackers. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 14 November -5.2% vs +0.6% priorUSDJPY extends gains above the 156.00 handle as Japanese officials keep the dovish stanceEurozone September final CPI +2.1% vs +2.1% y/y prelimJapan Finance Minister: Held meeting on maintaining close Govt, BoJ coordinationTraders add to BoE rate cut bets after the UK CPI reportChina Foreign Ministry: Takaichi's remarks on Taiwan have damaged Sino-Japanese relationsUK October CPI +3.6% vs +3.6% y/y expectedFX option expiries for 19 November 10am New York cutWhat are the main events for today?The main highlight of the session was the UK CPI report. The data was in line with forecasts although the services CPI was lower than expected. In terms of market pricing, we haven't seen big changes of course. The December cut probabilities just rose from 80% to 85%, and the total easing by 2026 from 59 bps to 63 bps after the data. The reaction to the CPI was fairly muted.The other notable news was the comments from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama who reaffirmed the dovish policy stance and the cooperation between the Government and the BoJ in achieving sustainable wage gains and economic growth. Although there wasn't anything new in her comments, the JPY extended the losses further with USDJPY breaking above 156.00.In other markets, US equities are still ranging but off the lows. The US dollar is basically flat on the day. Gold and silver are extending the gains after bouncing from key supports yesterday. Treasury yields continue to consolidate as traders await the US labour market data. In the American session, the only highlight is the FOMC meeting minutes. The minutes are the records of the meeting detailing the discussions, reasoning and decisions made regarding monetary policy. They are not market-moving because they are released three weeks after the meeting, so they became stale by the time they are released. In fact, we already heard basically all the Fed members, and Fed Chair Powell in his press conference gave a pretty thorough analysis of what they talked about in the meeting with the now infamous "a December cut is not a foregone conclusion - in fact, far from it". This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Market index 316.9 vs 334.2 priorPurchase index 168.7 vs 172.7 priorRefinance index 1156.8 vs 1247.5 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.37% vs 6.34% priorThis is never a market moving release. Mortgage applications are generally inversely correlated to mortgage rates. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior +2.2%Core CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelimPrior +2.4%The final figures confirm the preliminary estimates, so nothing to see here. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Held meeting from perspective of maintaining close Government and BoJ coordinationHeld meeting on my request to confirm cooperation under the new administrationReaffirmed closely monitoring marketReconfirmed technical tweak to BoJ-Government joint statement, no change to substanceNo specific discussion on FXBoJ Ueda explained current policy stanceReaffirmed need for Government-BoJ to work towards sustainably achieving price increase backed by wage gains and sustainable growthWill closely monitor market developments with high sense of urgencyNo discussion on size of stimulus packageCan't comment on size of issuance of new JGBs for stimulus packageWe're focusing on reducing debt to GDP ratioBoJ Ueda's remarks were the same as those made in briefing after policy meeting, said they are adjusting degree of monetary policy supportHave no objection to what BoJ Ueda was sayingThe Japanese Yen weakened further on these comments although I don't see anything new here. It just underscores that a rate hike from the BoJ is not going to happen anytime soon, so the 25% December hike probabilities should decrease further. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Under the current situation, even if Japanese aquatic products are exported to China, there will be no marketJapan PM Takaichi's erroneous remarks about Taiwan have fundamentally damaged the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relationsChina seriously urges Japan to retract its erroneous remarks, stop creating incidents on China-related issuesUrges Japan to take concrete actions to admit its mistakesIf Japan refuses to withdraw the remarks, even continuing to make mistakes, China will have to take stern and resolute countermeasuresJapan will bear all the consequences arising therefromThis follows a report from Kyodo on China considering a ban on Japanese seafood imports here. The Japanese PM remark in question is the one Takaichi gave on November 7 when asked what circumstances regarding Taiwan would count as a survival-threatening situation for Japan. She said "if there are battleships and the use of force, no matter how you think about it, it could constitute a survival-threatening situation". A "survival-threatening situation" is a legal term under Japan's security law implying the use of Japanese self-defence forces to repond to a threat on allies that could pose a threat to Japan. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior +3.8%Core CPI +3.4% vs +3.4% y/y expectedPrior +3.5%Services CPI +4.5 vs 4.6% y/y expectedPrior +4.7%The figures are in line with expectations, except the services measure which was lower than expected. The market was already pricing an 80% probability of a rate cut in December, so the data is not going to materially change things even though we should see the probabilities strengthen. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

In the European session, the main highlight is going to be the UK CPI report. The CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.6% vs 3.8% prior (same as BoE's forecast), while the Core CPI Y/Y is seen at 3.4% vs 3.5% prior. Governor Bailey placed more emphasis on inflation regarding his decision on a December cut, so the CPI is going to be very important for them. The market is already pricing a roughly 80% probability for a December cut following the soft UK employment report. Nonetheless, we could get a hawkish repricing in case the inflation figures surprise to the upside. We will also get the final Eurozone CPI data but as it's usually the case for the final readings, it's unlikely to be market-moving and won't change anything for the ECB anyway.In the American session, the only highlight is the FOMC meeting minutes. The minutes are the records of the meeting detailing the discussions, reasoning and decisions made regarding monetary policy. They are not market-moving because they are released three weeks after the meeting, so they became stale by the time they are released. In fact, we already heard basically all the Fed members, and Fed Chair Powell in his press conference gave a pretty thorough analysis of what they talked about in the meeting with the now infamous "a December cut is not a foregone conclusion - in fact, far from it".Lastly, after the market close, we get the Nvidia Q3 earnings report. Central bank speakers:15:00 GMT/10:00 ET - Fed's Miran (uber dove - voter)17:45 GMT/12:45 ET - Fed's Barkin (neutral - non voter)19:00 GMT/14:00 ET - Fed's Williams (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

China intends to renew a ban on Japanese seafood importsAUD, kiwi, CAD all losing ground against the USDTesla received a ride-hailing permit from Arizona, opening the door to begin robotaxiBOJ may delay rate hike until March as advisers urge caution on weak economyICYMI: BoE sets out plans for regulated sterling stablecoins with temporary holding limitsArmy Secretary Driscoll and chief of staff Gen. George visit Ukraine - unannounced tripMore on the BoJ Gov Ueda, fin min Katayama, eco min Kiuchi meeting soonJapan's new economic stimulus package to exceed 20 tln yen - Kyodo reportingBessent says Trump's $2000 checks to Americans won't be inflationary ... don't spend itBank of Japan Governor Ueda, fin min Katayama, eco min Kiuchi to meet todayYen divides outlook: BoA survey sees 2026 rebound, MUFG warns of deeper near-term weaknessAxios says the U.S. is secretly drafting new plan to end Ukraine warPBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.0872 (vs. estimate at 7.1121)Goldman Sachs sees oil sliding through 2026 on supply glut before recovering in 2027AUD is barely moved after the in line wages data from AustraliaAustralia data - Wage Price Index for Q3 2025: 0.8% q/q (expected 0.8%)---Coming up: Nvidia faces high-stakes Q3 earnings. Wall Street demands strong beat-and-raise---Australian data: Westpac Leading Index for October 2025 +0.11% m/m (prior –0.03%)Japan: September Core machinery orders +4.2% m/m (expected +2.5%) & +11.6^% y/y (v. +5.4%)Trump signalled he has already decided who next Fed Chair will be, but doesn't drop a nameDeutsche Bank says central-bank demand keeps gold on bullish path into next yearForeign demand for Treasuries slips in September, Japan boosts buyingWhite House announces weapons sales to Saudi Arabia, also an AI MOUInvestors expect steady euro through 2026, BoA survey findsTrump pumps AI investment, making US economy hottest in world. Regulation tho, hot or not?investingLive Americas FX news wrap 18 Nov: USD is mixed. Nvidia earnings tomorrowNew Zealand Q3 PPI: Outputs +0.6% (+0.7% expected) Inputs +0.2% (expected +0.9%)Oil - private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil build greater than expectedUS stocks close lower. Midday rally runs out of steamUK media reports that Reeves will consider 'shielding' small businesses from tax risesRisk appetite faded as currency pressure, Japan’s stimulus plans and Ukraine peace manoeuvring shaped the session.---Antipodean data offered a mixed picture. New Zealand’s PPI undershot expectations, while Australia’s wage figures for the September quarter came in exactly in line with both market and RBA forecasts. Headline wages rose 0.8% q/q and 3.4% y/y, but the detail leaned soft: private-sector wage growth slowed to 3.2% y/y and average pay rises were smaller than a year ago (3.6% vs 3.9%). Public-sector wages, however, remained elevated at 3.8% y/y.Across FX, Asian currencies traded mixed in a risk-off environment as investors continued to question stretched U.S. equity valuations. The AUD and NZD underperformed through the session. ---In Japan, Kyodo reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s stimulus package will exceed ¥20 trillion, backed by a ¥17 trillion supplementary budget. The scale of the package appears to be driving urgency in Tokyo:BOJ Governor Ueda meets Finance Minister Katayama and Economic Revitalisation Minister Kiuchi on Wednesday, with Katayama set to brief media afterwards.The meeting follows Ueda’s formal talks with PM Takaichi on Tuesday, covering economic conditions, policy outlook, and the yen’s rapid slide.Advisers continue to push a cautious approach to tightening. Goushi Kataoka, a member of Takaichi’s economic panel and former BOJ board member, told Bloomberg he does not expect a rate hike before March, arguing that policymakers must first confirm the impact of fiscal stimulus.Japanese Government Bond yields ticked higher, while the yen briefly firmed, with USD/JPY slipping toward 155.30 before bouncing after reports that China plans to reinstate a ban on Japanese seafood imports, adding fresh tension to the bilateral relationship. ---On the geopolitical front, Axios reports the U.S. is secretly drafting a new plan—developed in consultation with Russia—to end the war in Ukraine. Senior U.S. military officials also made an unannounced visit to Kyiv this week, underscoring the fluidity of the diplomatic and military picture. Asia-Pac stocks:Japan (Nikkei 225) -0.12%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) -0.45% Shanghai Composite -0.04%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) %-0.12 --- Ahead, after the US cash close on Wednesday, are Nvidia earnings. There is a preview in the points above, highlighted!. Markets once again look to the firm to save us! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Kyodo report. Yen losing some ground on this. -Frosty relations between China and Japan were prompted by new Japan PM Takaichi making comments on Taiwan a couple of weeks ag0. China reacted with fury and it hasn't let up. Yesterday:investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: BOJ Governor Ueda to meet with PM Takaichi laterChina escalated pressure on Japan, banning travel by state-owned enterprise employees, cancelling tour groups and events, and halting Japanese film releases. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Tesla received a ride-hailing permit this week from Arizona regulatorsopening the door for the automaker to begin operating a robotaxi service in the state Tesla applied for permit on November 13 Tesla met the requirements to operate as a TNC and is permitted as of November 17permit is the final regulatory step to launch a robotaxi service in Arizona This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and chief of staff Gen. Randy George visited Ukraine on an unannounced triThe news comes as the U.S. moves to find a way to speed the end of the war:Axios says the U.S. is secretly drafting new plan to end Ukraine warThe duo are slated to meet with Ukrainian military leaders, lawmakers and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, starting Wednesday.More here. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will meet on Wednesday with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and Economic Revitalisation Minister Minoru Kiuchi, the Ministry of Finance announced. Katayama is scheduled to brief reporters at around 6:30 p.m. (0930 GMT) following the discussions.The meeting comes just a day after Ueda held talks with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, where the two reviewed economic conditions, monetary policy, and recent currency movements. Such back-to-back high-level consultations are unusual, underscoring the heightened concerns over Japan’s economic direction and the yen’s steep recent decline.The ministry did not reveal the agenda, but the timing is notable: markets have been selling the yen on expectations that the new administration will announce a large fiscal package supported by continued low interest rates.---Kyodo reported earlier that the stimulus package could exceed ¥20 trillion, funded by a supplementary budget of roughly ¥17 trillion — a scale that would add to existing fiscal worries and may further influence currency dynamics. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Kyodo reports that Japan’s upcoming economic stimulus package is expected to exceed ¥20 trillion, with a supplementary budget of roughly ¥17 trillion planned to finance the measures. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.