EUR/USD remains neutral at this point and some consolidations could be seen. Further rise remains in favor though. Break of 1.1880 will target a test on 1.2011 high. On the downside, though, break of 1.1688 will likely extend the corrective pattern from 1.2011 with another leg. Intraday bias will be turned back the downside for 1.1612 and below.
From a technical side, GBP/USD find a decent support near the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the 1.3482-1.2676 recent pullback, around the 1.2985 region. Failure to defend the mentioned support now seems to accelerate the fall towards the 1.2900 round-figure mark before the pair eventually drops to test 23.6% Fibo. level, around the 1.2865 area. Some follow-through selling will negate any near-term positive bias and turn the pair vulnerable to aim back towards challenging the very important 200-day SMA, currently near the 1.2710-1.2705 zone. On the flip side, the 50% Fibo. level, around the 1.3075-80 region, now becomes immediate strong resistance. A convincing breakthrough should push the pair back above the 1.3100 mark, back towards the recent daily closing highs resistance near the 1.3140 region. This is followed by the 61.8% Fibo. barrier, around the 1.3175 region, which if cleared decisively might be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. The pair might then surpass the 1.3200 mark and retest the 1.3235 horizontal resistance. The momentum could further get extended towards the 1.3300 mark en-route the next major hurdle near the 1.3320 region.
USD/JPY remains neutral first and another fall is mildly in favor as long as 105.03 minor resistance holds. Below 104.34 will target 104.00 low first. Break will resume larger decline from 111.71. Nevertheless, sustained break of 105.03 support turned resistance will neutralize immediate near term bearishness. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 106.10 resistance instead.
EUR/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, break of 125.08 will resume the rebound from 122.37 to retest 127.07. Nevertheless, break of 123.01 will argue that correction from 127.07 is possibly extending with another falling leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 127.07 at 122.23.
From a technical perspective, AUD/USD could be at risk of extending its decline from the yearly high (0.7413) set in September, as buyers struggle to push price back above key confluent resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci (0.7131) and trend-defining 50-day moving average (0.7143). With the RSI failing to snap above the downtrend extending from the September extremes and the MACD indicator tracking firmly below its neutral midpoint, the path of least resistance seems skewed to the downside. However, price appears to be carving out a Symmetrical Triangle continuation pattern which implies that AUD/USD may consolidate within a tight range before eventually breaking to the topside, considering the preceding move was a significant uptrend. To that end, if key support at the 0.70 mark holds firm an extended topside push could be on the cards, with a daily close above the October 23 high (0.7158) needed to validate the bullish continuation pattern and open the door for price to retest the yearly high (0.7413).
USD/CAD currently trading near 1.3155, which is the resistance of the trend line connecting Sept. 30 and Oct.15 highs. However, a move above the diagonal resistance line may not be enough to entice stronger chart-driven buying. That's because several key resistance levels are lined above the trend line hurdle. For instance, the 50-day moving average (MA) is located at 1.3195, and a lower high is seen at 1.3260 (Oct. 15 high). A daily close above the lower high is needed to confirm a bullish reversal. Alternatively, the Oct.21 low of 1.3081 is the level to beat for the sellers.
(WTI) crude, fell to $38.83 during Monday's early Asian trading hours to hit the lowest level since Oct. 5. At press time, WTI is trading at $39.18, representing a -1.68% decline on the day. The daily chart relative strength index now shows an ascending triangle breakdown, a bearish pattern. Further, the daily chart MACD histogram has crossed into the bearish territory below zero. As such, oil prices could suffer deeper losses this week. The bearish case would strengthen if prices find acceptance under the immediate support at $39.04 (Oct. 12 low). On the higher side, the horizontal resistance at $41.72 is the level to beat for the bulls.
The Technical analysis shows that the path of least resistance for the gold appears to the downside, with minimal support levels seen ahead at $1883, which is the confluence of the pivot point one-day S2 and Fibonacci 23.6% one-month. Ahead of that level, the bears could be challenged by $1886, which is the pivot point one-week S1. On the flip side, the bulls are likely to have a hard time recovering ground above the $1900 level, as a dense cluster of resistance is aligned around $1902.30, the intersection of the previous high four-hour, Fibonacci38.2% one-month and one-day. Further north, the convergence of the SMA50 four-hour and Fibonacci 61.8% one-day at $1907 will offer the next resistance. Acceptance above the $1910 level is critical to reviving the near-term bullish momentum. At the point, the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week lies.
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