EUR/USD

EUR/USD manages to regain positive traction above 1.1900 ahead of the European open. The retreat in the US bond yields weigh on the USD and remain supportive of the uptick. Investors look forward to US Retail Sales for some impetus ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Euro/dollar bounced off the 1.1905 level twice – creating a double-bottom. Can it keep up? Momentum on the four-hour chart has turned to the downside while the currency pair is struggling to hold onto the 50 Simple Moving Average on the four-hour chart. 

Below 1.1905, the next cushion is at 1.1865, followed by 1.1836, which is the 2021 trough.

Some resistance awaits at the daily high of 1.1940, followed by 1.1965 and then 1.1990, which worked both as resistance and support so far in March. 

GBP/USD

GBP/USD trades below 1.3850, dropping for the third straight day despite the US dollar weakness. Bailey says the BOE will continue bond purchases this year. Europe’s covid vaccine concerns add to the weight on the spot. 

Hence, a subsequent fall towards the 1.3800 mark, en-route monthly swing lows near the 1.3780-75 region, now looks a distinct possibility. Some follow-through selling will set the stage for an extension of the recent sharp pullback from multi-year tops set on February 24.

On the flip side, any attempted recovery move might now confront resistance near the 1.3900 mark. This is closely followed by the 1.3925-30 horizontal barrier, which if cleared decisively might push the pair back towards the 1.4000 mark. A sustained move beyond will negate any near-term bearish bias and allow bulls to aim back to reclaim the 1.4100 mark with some intermediate hurdle near the 1.4070 zone.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY monthly impulse on the verge of a reversal. USD/JPY bears could be about to break up the bull’s relentless run on the longer-term time frames and the following top-down analysis illustrates where the downside target could come in.

The USD/JPY pair has spent the day consolidating around the current level, partially losing its bullish potential but with the risk still skewed to the upside. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair remains above its 20 SMA, which slowly turns higher. Technical indicators ease but remain well above their midlines. Renewed buying interest that pushes the price beyond 109.30 will likely result in an approach to the 110.00 threshold.

USD/CAD

The USD/CAD pair traded with a mild positive bias heading into the European session and was last seen hovering near the top end of its daily range, around the 1.2485 region.

The Canadian job market roared to life in February punching the loonie to a three-year high and successfully countering the US dollar’s interest rate based surge in all other major currency pairs.

Gold

The XAU/USD pair edged lower on Monday and touched its lowest level since early June at $1,676. However, with the greenback coming under strong selling pressure, the pair staged a decisive rebound and gained more than 3% in a three-day span to touch a weekly high of $1,739. Although gold struggled to preserve its bullish momentum toward the end of the week, in managed to snap a three-week losing streak and rose more than 1% to close around $1,720.

At the start of the week, the data from China revealed that Exports in February surged by 60.6% on a yearly basis and beat the market expectation for an increase of 38.9% by a wide margin. On a negative note, Germany’s Destatis reported on Monday that the Industrial Industriction in January contracted by 2.5% on a monthly basis.

Crude Oil

WTI trims early Asian losses during a corrective pullback from key moving average. Immediate falling trend line probes oil buyers before key Fibonacci retracement levels. Bears need fresh monthly low for conviction, RSI favors sustained trading above 200-HMA.

Assuming a typical barrel of US crude oil yields 45% gasoline, on a net basis the total gasoline stocks (crude oil + gasoline) in the US last week stands at 456 M barrels, which means for the first time this year that aggregate is lower than the 5-year average. This quick decline of stocks is largely seen in the quick pace of gasoline stock drawdown, which fell 25.5 M barrels over the past two weeks as the US cold snap thawed but refineries still faced difficulties getting back to work