From a technical point of view, on a daily chart, EUR/USD still stands above its rising 50-day moving average . Readers may therefore consider the potential for further advance above 1.1850. The nearest threshold would be set at previous overlap at 1.2150 and a second one would be set at horizontal resistance at 1.2300.
On Thursday the largest gainer among the major pairs was the GBPUSD which jumped 149 pips. Looking at a weekly chart, the pair is testing key resistance at the 1.351 level that has been in place since the start of 2018. A break above could have strong bullish implications towards the next key resistance area at 1.378. The 20-week moving average acts as support near the 1.308 level.
USD/JPY failed to surpass the 104.80 and 105.00 resistance levels. More importantly, it seems like there is a double top pattern forming near 104.75. The pair broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 103.83 low to 104.75 high. An immediate support is near the 104.00 and 103.95 levels.
A successful break and close below the 103.95 level could spark a strong decline. In the stated scenario, the pair could decline towards the 103.25 and 103.00 support levels. Conversely, the pair could climb higher above the 104.50 resistance. To start a steady increase, the pair must surpass the 104.80 and 105.00 resistance levels.
AUDUSD’s prompt recovery from month-end selling and the break above the.7414 high, the expectation is for the AUDUSD to push higher towards .7600c into yearend as part of a Wave iii to the upside.
Dips are likely to find support ahead of .7400c and again at .7360/50, with only a break/daily close below support at .7340/20 negating the positive bias.
USD/CAD’s down trend extends to as low as 1.2852 so far. 61.8% projection of 1.3389 to 1.2928 from 1.3172 at 1.2887 is already met but there is no sign of bottoming yet. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 100% projection at 1.2711 next. On the upside, above 1.2941 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.
Crude oil is attempting to close above the November 25th high, exposing the 49.42 inflection point. This follows the emergence of a bullish ‘Golden Cross’ after the short-term 20-day SMA crossed above the medium-term 50-day one. While this may signal more gains to come, do note that negative RSI divergence shows that upside momentum is fading.
November low also highlights $1,851 as the key upside hurdle. Should the metal crosses $1,851, Pivot Point one-week Resistance 1 around $1,857 can offer an intermediate halt before October’s low near $1,860.
Meanwhile, a downside break below $1,841 doesn’t recall the gold bears as the previous low on the four-hour chart (4H), middle Bollinger on the hourly play and SMA 5 on 4H challenge limit the quote’s further downside around $1,839.
Additionally, a downside break of $1,839 may catch a breather around 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of one-day, close to $1,835, before welcoming the gold sellers.
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