US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION UPDATE

Investors and policymakers alike remain glued to their screens as polling updates in key states continue to cross the wires. The states of interest are: Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. If Democratic nominee Joe Biden is able to claim the latter two, then it does not matter if Trump wins the other votes. By that point, the incumbent President will not be able to catch up.

EURUSD

The EUR/USD exchange rate is eyeing a push to test the October high (1.1881), as price surges away from support at the 100-DMA (1.1633) and pierces through resistance at the August low (1.1696). With the RSI trending higher and the MACD gearing up to cross above its ‘slower’ signal line counterpart, the path of least resistance looks skewed to the topside. With that in mind, a daily close back above the psychologically imposing 1.1800 mark would probably encourage would-be buyers and generate a topside push towards the yearly high (1,2011). On the contrary, failure to hold above the 21-DMA (1.1746) and 50-DMA (1.1738) could ignite a more extensive pullback and bring the monthly low (1.1622) into focus.

GBPUSD

GBP soared briefly to a high of 1.3140, plunged to a low of o1.2915 before trading between these two levels for the rest of the sessions. The outlook is unclear and further choppy price actions would not be surprising. That said, volatility should ease and a 1.2900/1.3080 range may be enough to contain the movement in GBP for now.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We continue to hold the same view from yesterday (04 Nov, spot at 1.3030) wherein the near-term outlook is clouded and GBP ‘could trade between the two major levels of 1.2845 and 1.3200’ for now. Unless there is further spike in volatility these few days, we should be able to narrow the expected range and have a clearer near-term view.” and 1.3200.”

USDJPY

The USD/JPY pair remained depressed through the first half of the trading action on Thursday, albeit lacked any strong follow-through and was last seen trading around the 104.35-40 region. From a technical perspective, the pair has been showing some resilience near the 104.00 mark. This warrants some caution for bearish traders and makes it prudent to wait for a sustained break below the mentioned level before positioning for any further near-term depreciating move. Nevertheless, US political developments will continue to play a key role in influencing the USD/JPY pair.

AUDUSD

AUD/USD wavers around 0.7170/75 while heading into Thursday’s European session open. The pair rose to a three-week high the previous day before stepping back from 0.7222. However, a successful U-turn from 200-hour EMA and an ascending trend line from November 02 join strong RSI conditions to favor the buyers. As a result, AUD/USD bulls await fresh entries above the resistance line of the adjacent triangle, at 0.7185 now, before targeting the 0.7200 and Wednesday’s top near 0.7225. While anticipated overbought RSI conditions may pause the pair’s further upside past-0.7225, October’s peak surrounding 0.7244 could lure the optimists afterward. In a case where the pair drops below the stated triangle’s support line, currently around 0.7155, an ascending trend line from Monday, at 0.7105 now, will be on the intraday sellers’ radar.

USDCAD

USD/CAD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 1.3081 support will target a test on 1.2994 low. Break there will resume larger down trend form 1.4667. On the upside, break of 1.3389 will likely resume the corrective pattern from 1.2994 with another rise through 1.3418 resistance.

WTI

WTI crude oil prices seem to be looking fairly neutral from a technical point of view. Here there is also a bearish ‘Death Cross’ established in September. Yet, the 36.15 – 37.10 support zone held recently as positive RSI divergence unfolded. The latter is a sign of fading downside momentum, which can at times precede a turn higher. Key resistance sits above between 42.91 – 43.87.

XAUUSD

After a steady decline, gold price found support near $1,860 against the US Dollar. A fresh increase was initiated and the price was able to recover above the $1,880 and $1,888 resistance levels. The 4-hours chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price followed a decent bullish path from the $1,860 swing low and settled above the $1,880 resistance. There was also a break above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,910 swing high to $1,860 swing low. The price is now trading above $1,900, the 200 simple moving average (4-hours), and the 100 simple moving average (4-hours). However, there is a strong resistance forming near $1,910 and $1,915. There is also a significant bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,915 on the same chart. Therefore, a clear break above the $1,910 and $1,915 resistance levels could clear the path for more gains. Conversely, the price might fail to continue higher above $1,915 and it could start a fresh decline. An initial support is near the $1,900 zone and the 100 SMA. A close below $1,900 and $1,895 might open the doors for a push towards the $1,880 support.