Throughout the past week sellers dominated the market and the pair closed in the red. The support at 1.1746 was broken and its violation was confirmed after the test of the level in question, which now acts as a resistance. First minor support for the pair is 1.1676 and, if the bearish pressure is strong, the potential target would be the low around 1.1615. Today, there is no major economic data coming out, however volatility could spike around the statements of FED Chairman Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde .
GBP/USD stays neutral as range trading continues inside 1.2845/3082. With 1.2845 support intact, another rise is still mildly in favor. On the upside, above 1.3082 will resume the rebound from 1.2675 for retesting 1.3482 high. On the downside, however, break of 1.2845 will indicate that fall from 1.3482 is not over. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.3482 at 1.2690.
For USD/JPY the scenario for trend reversal is still valid as the resistance zone between 105.38 and 105.51 was tested and the breach is now confirmed. Bears are showing weakness around the first major support zone at 105.00. If sellers fail to take over 105.00 once again, a deeper pullback towards 105.51 and 105.77 can be expected.
EUR/JPY’s fall last week suggests that corrective rise from 122.37 has completed at 125.08 already. But as a temporary low was formed at 123.01, initially EUR/JPY is neutral this week first. On the downside, below 123.01 will target 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 127.07 at 122.23. Firm break there will confirm resumption of whole corrective fall from 127.07, and target 61.8% retracement at 119.25, which is close to 119.31 key support. On the upside, though, break of 125.08 will target a retest on 127.07 high.
Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. We are seeing the case that corrective fall from 0.7413 is resuming. Below 0.7056 will target 0.7005 support first. Break will confirm this case and target 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7413 at 0.6685. However, Break of 0.7128 minor resistance will mix up the near term outlook again.
USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. Corrective pattern from 1.2994 might be extending with another rise. On the upside, above 1.3259 will target 1.3418 resistance first. Break will target 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2994 at 1.3633. On the downside, though, break of 1.3099 will bring retest of 1.2994 low instead.
Technically, WTI crude oil prices look set to re-attempt a key resistance in the US$ 41.00-41.50 area (highlighted on the chart below). Breaking above this level may offer room for more upside potential towards US$ 43.8 – the previous high. A retreat from current levels may lead to further consolidation at around US$ 40.00 (20-Day SMA). Bollinger Band width has narrowed significantly, suggesting that range-bound conditions may continue to dominate.
The price of gold may continue to consolidate amid the lack of momentum to test the monthly low ($1873), but a move back above the Fibonacci overlap around $1907 (100% expansion) to $1920 (161.8% expansion) may push bullion towards the monthly high ($1933), with the next area of interest coming in around $1956 (23.6% expansion). The RSI may continue to show the bearish momentum abating if it makes its way towards overbought territory, with a move above 70 likely to be accompanied by higher gold prices like the behavior seen in July. Need a break/close above $1956 (23.6% expansion) to bring the $1971 (100% expansion) to $1985 (261.8% expansion) region on the radar, with a move above the September high ($1993) opening up the overlap around $2016 (38.2% expansion) to $2025 (78.6% expansion).
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